Gold Retreats Slightly

Gold Retreats from Two-Week High as Energy-Driven Inflation Fuels Fed Rate Hike Expectations

Gold prices eased from a two-week high on Wednesday but maintained a bullish intraday bias during the first half of the European session. The precious metal remained supported by a weaker U.S. dollar after renewed optimism that U.S.-Iran diplomatic efforts could help ease energy prices and reduce expectations for a more aggressive Federal Reserve.

Senior negotiators from both the United States and Iran signaled that diplomatic discussions remain ongoing, raising hopes for a potential de-escalation of geopolitical tensions. The prospect of lower energy prices weighed on the U.S. dollar and provided underlying support for gold.

Technical Outlook Remains Constructive Above $4,100

From a technical perspective, XAU/USD continues to trade with a positive bias after breaking above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from mid-June and establishing support above the $4,100 level.

Momentum indicators continue to favor the bulls. The Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) is approaching overbought territory near 69.9, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains firmly in positive territory with the signal line comfortably above zero. These indicators suggest that bullish momentum remains intact, although the rally may be becoming overstretched.

A sustained move above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the four-hour chart would further reinforce the bullish outlook. If buyers maintain control, gold could target the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at $4,163.16, followed by the 61.8% retracement at $4,215.39. Additional upside resistance is located at $4,289.75, with the next major target near the cycle high of $4,384.47.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 200-period SMA near $4,128.26, followed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $4,110.93 and the 23.6% retracement at $4,046.31. A deeper correction could expose the late-June structural low around $3,941.85.

Middle East Tensions Keep Inflation Risks Elevated

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on Sunday that Washington remains open to negotiations with Iran, while Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni urged Pakistan to continue its diplomatic efforts. These developments prompted some profit-taking in the U.S. dollar after its strong rally over the past week.

However, geopolitical tensions remain elevated. The U.S. military confirmed it carried out an eleventh consecutive night of strikes against Iran, targeting aircraft hangars and drone storage facilities. President Donald Trump also warned that U.S. military operations would intensify and target any sites linked to Iran's efforts to rebuild its nuclear program.

Meanwhile, Iran continued launching attacks across the Gulf region, targeting U.S. military assets in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan. Tehran also claimed responsibility for attacks on two oil tankers attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz, while the Iran-backed Houthi movement in Yemen announced a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia.

These escalating developments have heightened concerns over a broader regional conflict and the potential disruption of global energy supplies. As a result, crude oil prices climbed to their highest level since June 12, fueling fears of energy-driven inflation that could force the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish monetary policy stance.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in an 88% probability that the Federal Reserve will deliver at least one additional interest rate hike before the end of the year. Higher interest rate expectations continue to support the U.S. dollar and could limit further gains in non-yielding assets such as gold.

Gold Recovery May Remain Limited

Analysts at OCBC believe gold is likely to remain range-bound in the near term despite recent gains.

They expect the precious metal to experience two-way trading, with any rebound likely to face strong resistance. According to the bank, a more sustainable recovery would require lower crude oil prices, easing real Treasury yields, and reduced expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening.

Until those conditions improve, OCBC expects gold's upside potential to remain limited despite continued geopolitical uncertainty and safe-haven demand.

Share:

Read More

Gold Gains Cautiously

 

Gold Prices Rise Cautiously as Fed Rate Bets and US-Iran Tensions Cap Gains

Gold prices edged higher during Tuesday's Asian session after experiencing volatile two-way price action in the previous session. However, the precious metal struggled to build on its recovery, remaining below the $4,050 per troy ounce mark as investors balanced safe-haven demand against expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer.

Despite the ongoing exchange of military strikes between the United States and Iran, diplomatic optimism helped limit further gains in gold. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on Sunday that Washington remains open to negotiations with Tehran, keeping hopes alive for a potential diplomatic resolution to the conflict.

Gold Technical Outlook Remains Bearish Below Key Moving Averages

On the daily chart, XAU/USD traded around $4,046.08, remaining below all major moving averages and reinforcing the short-term bearish outlook.

The 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,063.52 serves as the nearest resistance level, while the 50-day SMA at $4,263.77 represents the next significant upside barrier.

Long-term trend indicators continue to favor sellers, with the 200-day SMA at $4,495.83 and the 100-day SMA at $4,510.55 positioned well above current prices. Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 44, indicating only modest corrective momentum rather than a decisive bullish reversal.

Adding to the negative technical outlook, the 100-day SMA is on the verge of crossing below the 200-day SMA. If confirmed by a daily close, the formation would complete a Bear Cross, a classic bearish signal suggesting that downside risks remain dominant.

Resistance and Support Levels to Watch

A sustained move above the 21-day SMA at $4,063.52 would be the first indication that bearish momentum is fading, exposing the next resistance around the 50-day SMA at $4,263.77.

Beyond that, the 200-day SMA ($4,495.83) and 100-day SMA ($4,510.55) create a strong resistance zone that is likely to limit any broader recovery in the near term.

On the downside, the absence of major technical support immediately below current prices leaves recent swing lows as the primary support area. As long as gold remains below the 21-day SMA, rallies are likely to attract fresh selling pressure.

Falling Oil Prices Ease Inflation Concerns

Gold also found support from the continued pullback in crude oil prices after they retreated from monthly highs near $84.50 per barrel. Oil declined for a second consecutive session as diplomatic efforts to ease tensions between the United States and Iran gained momentum.

An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson confirmed on Monday that international mediators had presented new proposals to Tehran, keeping hopes for diplomacy alive.

Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told CNN that Washington had received signals through multiple channels indicating Iran's willingness to negotiate, although divisions within the Iranian leadership remain.

The diplomatic developments come despite ongoing military exchanges between the two countries. At the same time, Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen announced a maritime blockade targeting Saudi Arabia after both sides exchanged attacks for the first time in several years.

Additional support for gold sentiment came after an Axios report suggested that President Donald Trump is weighing two strategic options: supporting a 10-day ceasefire to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or launching a broader joint military campaign with Israel against Iran, while diplomatic negotiations continue.

Market Focus Shifts to Diplomacy and Fed Outlook

For now, investors remain focused on diplomatic efforts, particularly as the Middle East crisis is expected to dominate discussions among foreign ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) during meetings in Manila, Philippines.

Looking ahead, any developments regarding a potential U.S.-Iran ceasefire are likely to remain the primary catalyst for gold prices, especially as the U.S. economic calendar lacks major high-impact data releases.

Despite geopolitical support, gold's daily technical structure continues to favor the bears. The approaching Bear Cross, combined with persistent negative momentum and expectations for prolonged higher U.S. interest rates, suggests that upside potential may remain limited unless buyers successfully reclaim key resistance levels.

Share:

Read More

Gold Stays Subdued

 

Gold Price Holds Near $4,000 as Bearish Bias Persists Amid Rising Inflation Fears and Fed Rate Hike Expectations

From a technical perspective, gold prices continue to trade within a descending channel while remaining below the key 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at approximately $4,495.79, reinforcing the broader bearish outlook despite signs of recent stabilization. The XAU/USD pair is currently trading just beneath the upper boundary of the descending channel near $4,056.51, suggesting that any recovery remains corrective rather than the beginning of a sustained bullish reversal.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned slightly positive, indicating modest upward momentum following the latest rebound. However, bullish momentum remains limited as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to trade below the neutral 50 level in slightly negative territory. A decisive breakout above the descending channel resistance would be required to confirm a stronger recovery and pave the way for a move toward the 200-day SMA near $4,495.79.

On the downside, the lower boundary of the descending channel around $3,662.99 serves as the next major support level. A decline back toward this zone would reinforce the prevailing bearish structure and could expose gold to deeper losses if support fails to hold.

Middle East Escalation Fuels Inflation Concerns

Geopolitical tensions intensified over the weekend after the United States announced the completion of its ninth consecutive night of military strikes against Iran following the death of another U.S. service member in Iraq. U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the latest operations were carried out in honor of American personnel killed in recent days.

The U.S. Central Command also said the strikes were aimed at degrading Iran's military capabilities used to target commercial vessels and civilian shipping passing through the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Iran launched ballistic missiles and one-way attack drones targeting U.S. allies across the region, with Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, and Iraq reporting fresh waves of attacks.

The escalating conflict has significantly increased the risk of a broader regional war, prompting traders to maintain a geopolitical risk premium in commodity markets.

At the same time, the United States has tightened its naval blockade of Iranian ports and imposed additional restrictions on previously approved oil export licenses. Meanwhile, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has intensified efforts to monitor and restrict maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

These developments pushed crude oil prices to their highest levels since June 12, reigniting inflation concerns and strengthening market expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates in 2026.

Adding to the hawkish outlook, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said on Friday that interest rates may need to move higher if inflation remains persistent. Her comments provided additional support for the U.S. dollar, limiting demand for non-yielding assets such as gold.

Fed Speakers and Geopolitical Headlines Remain Key Drivers

With no major U.S. economic data scheduled for Monday, investors are likely to focus on comments from influential Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) officials for fresh guidance on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook.

The current fundamental backdrop suggests that traders should wait for stronger buying momentum before confirming that XAU/USD has established a meaningful short-term bottom. At the same time, incoming geopolitical developments from the Middle East are expected to keep financial markets volatile, creating short-term trading opportunities in the gold market.

Keywords: Gold Price, XAU/USD, Gold Forecast, Federal Reserve, Fed Rate Hike, Inflation, US Dollar, Middle East Conflict, Iran, Strait of Hormuz, Technical Analysis, Gold Market Outlook.

Share:

Read More

Gold Holds Recovery

Gold Price Holds Recovery Near $4,000 as Fed Rate Hike Bets Strengthen

Gold prices (XAU/USD) continued to hold onto recovery gains near the key $4,000 per ounce level on Friday. However, the precious metal's upside remained limited as growing expectations of another Federal Reserve interest rate hike, coupled with stronger US economic data and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, boosted the US dollar and weighed on non-yielding assets.

Crude oil prices have surged more than 10% this week after renewed military clashes between the United States and Iran intensified concerns over global energy supplies. The rally in oil has revived inflation fears, reinforcing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer. This outlook continues to support the greenback while reducing demand for gold.

Gold Technical Outlook Remains Bearish

From a technical perspective, XAU/USD continues to trade within a descending channel and remains below the critical 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), reinforcing the bearish short-term outlook.

Although the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned slightly positive, suggesting fading downside momentum, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains near 40, indicating stabilization rather than the beginning of a sustained bullish reversal.

Any additional upside is likely to encounter initial resistance near the upper boundary of the descending channel at $4,082.74. A stronger resistance zone lies around the 200-day SMA at $4,495.44.

On the downside, the lower boundary of the descending channel near $3,661.05 serves as key technical support. A decisive break below this level would confirm the prevailing bearish trend and expose gold to deeper losses.

US-Iran Conflict Revives Inflation Concerns

The conflict between the United States and Iran entered a more dangerous phase on Thursday as both sides exchanged increasingly intense attacks.

Iran reportedly expanded its military operations beyond conventional military targets, with officials in Bandar Abbas confirming that civilian infrastructure, including electricity facilities and railway stations, had been hit. Tehran retaliated by launching missile and drone attacks targeting Gulf states allied with the United States.

Meanwhile, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz escalated after US forces intercepted commercial vessels attempting to bypass the naval blockade surrounding Iran.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also threatened to widen the conflict by targeting additional regional energy supply routes. Reports indicated that Iran had instructed Yemen's Houthi forces to prepare for possible disruptions to Red Sea oil shipping routes.

These developments helped crude oil prices remain near one-month highs, raising concerns that higher energy costs could reignite global inflation and complicate the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path.

Strong US Data Reinforces Fed Rate Hike Expectations

Recent US economic data further strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could deliver another interest rate increase before year-end.

The US Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims fell to 208,000 in the week ending July 11, coming in below market expectations and highlighting the continued resilience of the US labor market.

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index jumped sharply from 10.3 to 41.4 in July, marking its highest reading since November 2021 and signaling a significant acceleration in regional manufacturing activity. The report also showed continued increases in price-related components, underscoring persistent inflationary pressures.

Federal Reserve officials maintained their hawkish stance.

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said the recent moderation in consumer and producer inflation was insufficient to provide meaningful relief for US households and argued that slightly higher interest rates may still be necessary to restore price stability.

Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson also stated that he remains open to additional rate hikes if inflation fails to improve in the coming months.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in nearly a 75% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in December.

Gold Outlook Remains Cautious

The combination of rising oil prices, persistent inflation risks, stronger US economic indicators, and hawkish Federal Reserve commentary continues to favor the US dollar and limits gold's recovery potential.

Investors are now focused on Friday's US economic calendar, which includes Building Permits, Housing Starts, Industrial Production, the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and Inflation Expectations. These reports, along with additional remarks from Federal Reserve officials, are expected to influence the US dollar's direction and determine whether gold prices can sustain their recovery near the $4,000 level or extend losses for a second consecutive week.

Share:

Read More

Oil Pressures Gold

Gold Prices Slip as Rising Oil Fuels Inflation Concerns and Supports Stronger US Dollar

Gold prices declined on Thursday as another surge in crude oil prices reignited inflation concerns, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates elevated for longer. The stronger US dollar and higher Treasury yield outlook reduced demand for non-yielding assets such as gold.

As of 08:31 WIB, spot gold (XAU/USD) fell 0.59% to $4,036.62 per troy ounce, while Gold Futures slipped 0.24% to $4,042.10.

Softer US Inflation Eases Pressure on the Federal Reserve

US producer prices unexpectedly fell 0.3% in June, defying market expectations for no monthly change. The weaker Producer Price Index (PPI) followed softer Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released earlier this week, reinforcing signs that underlying inflationary pressures are easing.

The back-to-back inflation reports initially strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may delay further interest rate hikes, providing a supportive backdrop for precious metals. However, investors largely overlooked the backward-looking inflation data as renewed conflict in the Middle East pushed crude oil prices higher for a fourth consecutive session.

The renewed rally in oil has revived concerns that rising energy costs could feed into future inflation, limiting the Fed's flexibility to ease monetary policy despite recent progress in reducing price pressures.

While lower inflation would normally weaken the US dollar and support gold by reducing expectations of tighter monetary policy, the sharp rebound in oil prices has cast doubt on whether the current disinflation trend can be sustained.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated this week that policymakers remain committed to bringing inflation back to the central bank's 2% target, emphasizing their readiness to adjust interest rates if price pressures prove more persistent than expected. He also dismissed concerns that rapid investment in artificial intelligence alone would trigger broader inflationary pressures.

Meanwhile, Fed Governor Lisa Cook said she would support additional policy action if inflation remains elevated, while New York Fed President John Williams stated that current interest rates are "well positioned" to return inflation to target, highlighting the central bank's cautious approach despite encouraging inflation data.

Oil Rally Revives Inflation Risks

Despite improving inflation data, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to keep investors on edge.

The United States launched a fifth consecutive day of strikes against Iranian targets, while President Donald Trump pledged to intensify military operations until Tehran halts attacks on commercial shipping and reopens the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) extended their recent gains as markets monitored potential supply disruptions through the critical shipping route, fueling concerns that higher energy prices could once again drive broader inflation.

A sustained increase in oil prices could complicate the Federal Reserve's policy outlook by raising the risk that inflation remains above target for longer. Should policymakers maintain higher interest rates for an extended period, stronger US Treasury yields and a firmer US dollar would likely weigh on gold demand while making the precious metal more expensive for overseas buyers.

Analysts at ANZ said the key question is whether the Federal Reserve views the recent surge in energy prices as a temporary supply shock or as a development that could spill over into broader inflation, potentially influencing future monetary policy decisions.

Share:

Read More

Gold Eases Lower

 

Gold Prices Slip as Oil Rally Revives Inflation Concerns and Clouds Fed Outlook

Gold prices edged lower on Thursday as investors reassessed the inflation outlook following another surge in crude oil prices. Rising energy costs have renewed concerns that inflationary pressures could persist, complicating the Federal Reserve's policy path despite softer-than-expected U.S. consumer inflation data released earlier this week.

Gold Declines as Investors Shift Focus to Inflation Risks

As of 1:15 PM WIB, spot gold (XAU/USD) fell 0.6% to $4,028.43 per troy ounce, while Gold Futures slipped 0.8% to $4,035.50. Meanwhile, silver (XAG/USD) dropped 0.5% to $58.35 per ounce, and platinum (XPT/USD) eased 0.1% to $1,629.89 per ounce.

The pullback follows a strong rally earlier in the week, when gold climbed more than 2% after weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a less aggressive monetary stance.

Softer U.S. Inflation Supports Gold, but Rising Oil Prices Offset Optimism

June's U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded the first monthly decline in consumer prices since 2020, easing inflation concerns and pushing Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar lower. The softer inflation report prompted traders to reduce expectations of near-term Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, providing significant support for precious metals.

However, market sentiment quickly shifted as crude oil prices resumed their upward momentum. Investors are increasingly concerned that higher energy costs could reignite inflationary pressures, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for longer than previously anticipated.

Oil Rally Keeps Federal Reserve Policy in the Spotlight

Crude oil prices extended gains for a third consecutive session after President Donald Trump maintained a naval blockade around Iranian ports and warned of further military escalation unless Tehran returned to negotiations. The heightened geopolitical tensions have intensified concerns over global energy supplies, driving oil prices higher.

Persistently elevated energy prices could complicate the Federal Reserve's efforts to bring inflation back to its long-term target. While gold is traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, higher interest rates and stronger bond yields typically reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.

Federal Reserve officials have welcomed the recent moderation in inflation but continue to emphasize that additional evidence is needed before they can confidently conclude that inflation is moving sustainably toward the central bank's target.

ANZ Sees Limited Near-Term Upside for Gold

Analysts at ANZ expect gold prices to remain range-bound in the short term as expectations for at least one Federal Reserve rate hike this year continue to cap upside momentum. Nevertheless, they believe buying interest is likely to re-emerge during deeper price corrections, arguing that the precious metal's long-term fundamentals remain firmly supportive.

Markets Await U.S. Producer Price Data

Investors are now turning their attention to the upcoming U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which could provide fresh insights into inflation trends and the Federal Reserve's next policy move.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets currently assign a 58% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September, down from approximately 76% before Tuesday's softer CPI report, highlighting the market's evolving expectations for U.S. monetary policy.

Share:

Read More