Gold Below Pressure

Gold Slips Below $4,700 as Market Sentiment Weakens

Gold prices (XAU/USD) traded under pressure on Monday, fluctuating below the $4,700 level as the US Dollar regained strength. Persistent geopolitical uncertainty continued to reinforce the Greenback’s safe-haven appeal, while growing expectations of a more hawkish stance from the US Federal Reserve further weighed on the precious metal.

From a technical perspective, gold maintains a neutral tone after repeatedly failing last week to break above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-May decline. However, downside movement remained limited near the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). In addition, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stayed slightly above the 50 mark, signaling a modest bullish bias, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remained below zero with negative readings, suggesting that bullish momentum is still not fully convincing.

Meanwhile, the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement around $4,696 is expected to act as immediate resistance, followed by stronger barriers near the 61.8% retracement at $4,743 and the 78.6% level around $4,810. A sustained breakout above these levels could pave the way toward the recent cycle high near $4,894. On the downside, the 200-period SMA at $4,675 provides initial support ahead of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near $4,650, while deeper support levels are seen around $4,592 and the structural low near $4,498.

Optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran peace agreement and conflict de-escalation faded rapidly amid renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, both US President Donald Trump and Iran rejected each other’s peace proposals aimed at ending the conflict and gradually reopening the strategic waterway, largely due to major disagreements over Iran’s nuclear program.

According to reports from the Wall Street Journal, Iran refused US demands to dismantle its nuclear facilities and halt uranium enrichment activities for the next 20 years. President Trump quickly criticized Iran’s response, calling it “completely unacceptable.” These developments kept geopolitical risks elevated, supporting the US Dollar and increasing downside pressure on gold prices.

At the same time, rising crude oil prices revived inflation concerns, while stronger-than-expected US employment data released on Friday strengthened the case for a more hawkish Federal Reserve policy outlook. The latest US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed that the economy added 115,000 new jobs in April, surpassing market expectations, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3%.

Furthermore, CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicated that traders are currently pricing in more than a 20% probability that the Federal Reserve could implement at least one additional 25-basis-point interest rate hike before the end of the year. This outlook continued to support the US Dollar and reinforced bearish pressure on non-yielding assets such as gold.

However, traders remain cautious ahead of key US inflation data releases this week, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday. Investors will also closely monitor upcoming US Retail Sales data and speeches from influential Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members for further clues on monetary policy direction.

Despite the recent weakness, the absence of aggressive follow-through selling suggests caution before confirming that gold’s rebound from the psychological $4,500 level — its lowest point in more than a month reached last week — has completely lost momentum.

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Gold Prices Decline

Gold Prices Slip on Friday Morning as Hopes for Easing War Tensions Fade

Gold prices edged lower during Friday morning trading (May 8, 2026), pressured by fading optimism over a potential easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

According to Bloomberg, as of 07:58 WIB, gold futures for June 2026 delivery on the Commodity Exchange were trading at US$4,709.40 per troy ounce, down 0.03% from the previous session’s close of US$4,710.90 per troy ounce.

Although the decline was relatively mild, gold prices remained under pressure as optimism surrounding a possible agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz weakened following reports of attacks on US Navy vessels.

Bloomberg reported that military tensions escalated after Iran allegedly launched attacks on three US Navy destroyers sailing through the Strait of Hormuz.

The latest confrontation has further intensified geopolitical uncertainty as the United States seeks a way out of the conflict while awaiting Iran’s response to proposals aimed at reopening the crucial shipping route.

Gold prices have fallen around 11% since the conflict began. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered major energy price shocks, fueling inflation concerns that could keep global interest rates elevated for a longer period.

Higher interest rates and a stronger US dollar continue to weigh negatively on gold prices, reducing the appeal of the precious metal among investors.

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Gold Holds Firm

Gold Holds Positive Bias Above $4,700 as Weaker US Dollar Supports Bullion Near Multi-Week High

Gold prices maintained a positive tone for the third consecutive trading session, holding firmly above the $4,700 level and staying close to a one-and-a-half-week high reached in the previous session. However, bullish momentum appears cautious as traders await greater clarity surrounding a potential US-Iran peace agreement before placing fresh positions. The downside for the precious metal remains limited due to fading expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve and broad weakness in the US Dollar, both of which continue to support bullion prices.

Wednesday’s breakout above the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA), followed by sustained strength beyond the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the April swing high decline, has been viewed as a key bullish trigger for XAU/USD buyers. Gold also remains above the critical 50% retracement level, reinforcing the constructive near-term outlook.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains around 65, maintaining a bullish tone without yet entering overbought territory. This suggests there is still room for additional upside momentum, although the metal could face corrective pullbacks if buyers begin losing traction. At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains below the zero line with negative readings, signaling that bullish momentum is not yet fully convincing.

On the upside, immediate resistance is seen near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $4,741.58, followed by stronger resistance around the 78.6% retracement level near $4,807.61. A break above these levels could open the door toward the recent cycle high around $4,891.72, which continues to cap the broader bullish scenario.

On the downside, initial support is located near the 50% retracement level at $4,695.20, followed by a more substantial demand zone around the 38.2% retracement at $4,648.82 and the 200 EMA near $4.634,46. A sustained move below this area could expose the 23.6% retracement level at $4,591.44 and potentially the recent swing low around $4,498.68 if selling pressure intensifies.

Fundamental Overview

US President Donald Trump struck an optimistic tone on Wednesday, stating that negotiations had made progress over the past 24 hours and suggesting that a deal with Iran was highly possible. In addition, Axios reported that the United States and Iran were very close to finalizing an agreement. However, Iranian state-linked media rejected claims of a broader deal, citing reports from the Iranian Students News Agency indicating that the US proposal included terms previously rejected by Tehran in recent days.

Further reports from the BBC indicated that Iran is reviewing a one-page memorandum with the United States that could gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift American restrictions on Iranian ports. Nevertheless, Trump warned that Iran could face bombing “at levels and intensity far greater than before” if a peace agreement is not reached. Investors are therefore reassessing the likelihood of a finalized deal amid persistent disagreements over Iran’s nuclear program, a factor that continues to weigh on gold prices.

On the economic front, the latest US ADP Employment Report released Wednesday showed private-sector payrolls increased by 109K in April, compared with a downwardly revised 61K in the previous month. The stronger-than-expected reading highlighted continued resilience, though unevenness, within the US labor market. Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch Tool from CME Group indicates traders are still pricing in the possibility of another Federal Reserve rate hike later this year. This has helped limit further losses in the US Dollar and capped stronger gains in non-yielding gold.

Traders are now focusing on the weekly US Initial Jobless Claims data, alongside speeches from influential FOMC members, which may generate fresh volatility during the North American trading session. However, market attention remains firmly centered on Friday’s closely watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. In addition, ongoing developments surrounding the Middle East crisis are expected to continue driving volatility across global financial markets and shaping the next directional move for gold prices. 

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Gold Price Surge

 

Gold Surges Above $4,600 as Weaker USD Boosts Middle East Peace Hopes

Gold prices rallied above $4,600 on Wednesday morning, extending a recovery from a more than one-month low near $4,500 touched earlier this week. The US Dollar (USD) came under selling pressure amid renewed optimism over a potential US-Iran peace agreement. In addition, falling Crude Oil prices eased inflation concerns and tempered expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed), further supporting the non-yielding precious metal.

From a technical perspective, the four-hour chart shows that XAU/USD maintains a short-term bearish bias as price remains below tightly clustered moving averages. The 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,579.51 acts as the first resistance, while the 200-period SMA at $4,652.00 and the 100-period SMA at $4,699.21 reinforce a broader corrective tone. Momentum indicators are weakening, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 44 and the Momentum indicator gaining downside traction in negative territory, suggesting that bullish attempts may face selling pressure around these moving averages.

On the upside, immediate resistance aligns with the 20-period SMA near $4,579.51. A sustained breakout above this level is needed to ease short-term pressure and open the door toward the 200-period SMA at $4,652.00, followed by the 100-period SMA at $4,699.21. On the downside, key support stands at $4,500, where buyers have previously emerged. A break below this level could trigger a sharper near-term decline.

Daily chart indicators also point to a bearish outlook for XAU/USD. While spot prices remain above the 200-day SMA at $4,293.20, they are still capped by declining short- and medium-term moving averages. The 20-day SMA at $4,702.36 and the 100-day SMA at $4,766.62 continue to limit upside potential. Meanwhile, RSI and Momentum indicators are rising below their midlines, reflecting a corrective rebound rather than signaling a stronger recovery.

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Gold Holds Near $4,550 Amid Geopolitical Tensions and US Data Focus

Spot gold posted moderate intraday gains on Tuesday, trading around $4,550 per troy ounce. The precious metal started the week on a weaker note as tensions in the Middle East intensified. XAU/USD dropped toward $4,500 as peace hopes faded, while concerns over ceasefire violations grew following reports that Iran targeted oil facilities in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

The United States claimed control over the Strait of Hormuz and announced plans to escort neutral vessels through the conflict zone. However, the effort has yet to show significant success, as the route remains highly restricted on both sides. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump suggested the war could last “two or three” weeks, repeating similar statements made previously.

Ongoing uncertainty surrounding the conflict initially supported the US Dollar earlier in the week. However, the USD’s corrective decline began in Asia and accelerated during US trading hours following economic data releases. The ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) indicated a slowdown in April, coming in at 53.6, down from 54 in March.

The Greenback also retreated amid strong equity performance, supported by earnings reports and stable Crude Oil prices. Nevertheless, lingering concerns are likely to keep the USD relatively supported.

From a fundamental standpoint, market focus will remain on the Iran conflict, while US labor market data will also attract investor attention. The ADP Employment Change report is due on Wednesday, followed by the April Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.

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Gold Under Pressure

 

Gold Faces Downside Pressure Amid Hormuz Tensions and Rising Inflation Fears

Gold prices staged a modest rebound from a one-month low of $4,501 early Tuesday, often described as a dead cat bounce. However, the recovery appears fragile as sellers are likely to re-enter the market. Persistent demand for the US Dollar as a safe-haven asset, combined with renewed geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, continues to weigh on the precious metal.

From a technical perspective, XAU/USD is trading near $4,540.20 on the daily chart, maintaining a short-term bearish bias. The price remains capped below the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,701.91, along with a stronger resistance cluster formed by the 100-day SMA at $4,766.49 and the 50-day SMA at $4,808.32. Although gold is still holding above the 200-day SMA at $4,293.14 and an ascending trendline support near $4,382.60, downside risks persist. A descending trendline resistance around $4,607.28 and a weak Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) reading of 39.12 suggest that any upward moves may attract selling pressure as long as prices remain below key resistance levels.

On the upside, immediate resistance is seen near $4,607.28, followed by the 21-day SMA at $4,701.91. A sustained breakout above this zone could open the door toward the 100-day SMA at $4,766.49 and eventually the 50-day SMA at $4,808.32. On the downside, initial support lies near current price levels, with stronger support located around the broken uptrend zone at $4,382.60, followed by the 200-day SMA at $4,293.14. This area is expected to act as a key defense zone for buyers aiming to preserve the broader bullish trend.

Fundamental Outlook

Market sentiment remains risk-averse, favoring the US Dollar and limiting gold’s upside potential. Escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, have reignited inflation concerns following a recent surge in oil prices.

These fears intensified after reports that US forces engaged Iranian units and sank several small vessels targeting civilian ships while attempting to reopen the strait. The United Arab Emirates (UAE), a key US ally, also reported intercepting multiple missiles and drones allegedly launched by Iran.

While Iran has neither fully confirmed nor denied these incidents, its Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, warned that both the US and UAE should avoid being drawn deeper into conflict. Meanwhile, Iranian media cited military sources claiming that US forces attacked two civilian vessels carrying goods to Iran, though these ships were reportedly not linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

If tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to escalate, gold could face sustained downward pressure due to a combination of stronger US Dollar demand and rising expectations of tighter monetary policy. Inflation concerns are likely to reinforce hawkish expectations for the US Federal Reserve, which typically acts as a headwind for non-yielding assets like gold.

As long as geopolitical risks persist without signs of de-escalation, the US Dollar is expected to remain the preferred safe-haven asset, keeping gold vulnerable to further declines. Market participants are closely watching whether the fragile ceasefire in place since early April will hold or collapse amid rising tensions in the region.

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Gold Price Weakens

 

Gold Price Slips as Hawkish Central Banks Weigh on Market, Sellers Eye Break Below $4,600

Gold prices edged lower during Monday’s Asian session, attracting mild selling pressure while still showing resilience below the key $4,600 level. However, bearish momentum remains limited as traders await a confirmed breakdown. The cautious tone comes as major central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), maintain a hawkish stance amid concerns that rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could reignite global inflation.

A brief move above $4,600 and the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) triggered short-covering in intraday trading. Still, the upside stalled near $4,650, close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from April’s swing high. Technical indicators remain mixed— the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 58.33 signals moderate bullish momentum without being overbought, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly negative. This suggests that bullish attempts are tentative despite prices holding above short-term trend levels.

For a stronger bullish continuation, gold needs a sustained breakout above the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $4,651. A successful move could extend the rebound from the recent one-month low near $4,500. The next resistance is seen at the 50% retracement level around $4,696. On the downside, immediate support lies at the 100-hour SMA near $4,623. A break below this level could expose the 23.6% Fibonacci level at $4,595, with a deeper decline potentially targeting the broader swing low near $4,505.

Fundamental Overview

The Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy stance continues to support the US Dollar (USD), limiting upside potential for non-yielding assets like gold, which is now on track for a second consecutive weekly loss.

Geopolitical tensions also remain in focus. US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the blockade, instead maintaining naval restrictions until a nuclear agreement is reached. Reports suggesting potential new US military actions against Iran have heightened fears of further escalation, boosting demand for the USD as a safe-haven currency and pressuring gold prices.

Meanwhile, the Fed kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% last week. Notably, the decision recorded the highest level of dissent since 1992, with three policymakers opposing the policy stance. Recent US macroeconomic data reinforces the Fed’s cautious outlook—March inflation data showed continued price pressures alongside strong economic resilience, increasing expectations that interest rates may remain elevated into next year.

According to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 0.7% month-over-month in March, with the annual rate climbing to 3.5% from 2.8% in February. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, increased 3.2% year-over-year, up from 3.0% previously. Additionally, preliminary GDP data showed the US economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.0% in Q1 2026, a significant improvement from the revised 0.5% growth in Q4 2025.

Despite this, expectations for at least one 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in 2026 have risen to over 15%, up sharply from just 1.3% previously. This shift is preventing aggressive USD buying and helping to limit further downside in gold prices.

Market attention now turns to upcoming US economic data releases, starting with the ISM Manufacturing PMI later this week. At the same time, developments in the Middle East will remain a key driver of USD strength and overall gold price direction.

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