Gold Stays Subdued

 

Gold Price Holds Near $4,000 as Bearish Bias Persists Amid Rising Inflation Fears and Fed Rate Hike Expectations

From a technical perspective, gold prices continue to trade within a descending channel while remaining below the key 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at approximately $4,495.79, reinforcing the broader bearish outlook despite signs of recent stabilization. The XAU/USD pair is currently trading just beneath the upper boundary of the descending channel near $4,056.51, suggesting that any recovery remains corrective rather than the beginning of a sustained bullish reversal.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned slightly positive, indicating modest upward momentum following the latest rebound. However, bullish momentum remains limited as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to trade below the neutral 50 level in slightly negative territory. A decisive breakout above the descending channel resistance would be required to confirm a stronger recovery and pave the way for a move toward the 200-day SMA near $4,495.79.

On the downside, the lower boundary of the descending channel around $3,662.99 serves as the next major support level. A decline back toward this zone would reinforce the prevailing bearish structure and could expose gold to deeper losses if support fails to hold.

Middle East Escalation Fuels Inflation Concerns

Geopolitical tensions intensified over the weekend after the United States announced the completion of its ninth consecutive night of military strikes against Iran following the death of another U.S. service member in Iraq. U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the latest operations were carried out in honor of American personnel killed in recent days.

The U.S. Central Command also said the strikes were aimed at degrading Iran's military capabilities used to target commercial vessels and civilian shipping passing through the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Iran launched ballistic missiles and one-way attack drones targeting U.S. allies across the region, with Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, and Iraq reporting fresh waves of attacks.

The escalating conflict has significantly increased the risk of a broader regional war, prompting traders to maintain a geopolitical risk premium in commodity markets.

At the same time, the United States has tightened its naval blockade of Iranian ports and imposed additional restrictions on previously approved oil export licenses. Meanwhile, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has intensified efforts to monitor and restrict maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

These developments pushed crude oil prices to their highest levels since June 12, reigniting inflation concerns and strengthening market expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates in 2026.

Adding to the hawkish outlook, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said on Friday that interest rates may need to move higher if inflation remains persistent. Her comments provided additional support for the U.S. dollar, limiting demand for non-yielding assets such as gold.

Fed Speakers and Geopolitical Headlines Remain Key Drivers

With no major U.S. economic data scheduled for Monday, investors are likely to focus on comments from influential Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) officials for fresh guidance on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook.

The current fundamental backdrop suggests that traders should wait for stronger buying momentum before confirming that XAU/USD has established a meaningful short-term bottom. At the same time, incoming geopolitical developments from the Middle East are expected to keep financial markets volatile, creating short-term trading opportunities in the gold market.

Keywords: Gold Price, XAU/USD, Gold Forecast, Federal Reserve, Fed Rate Hike, Inflation, US Dollar, Middle East Conflict, Iran, Strait of Hormuz, Technical Analysis, Gold Market Outlook.

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Gold Holds Recovery

Gold Price Holds Recovery Near $4,000 as Fed Rate Hike Bets Strengthen

Gold prices (XAU/USD) continued to hold onto recovery gains near the key $4,000 per ounce level on Friday. However, the precious metal's upside remained limited as growing expectations of another Federal Reserve interest rate hike, coupled with stronger US economic data and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, boosted the US dollar and weighed on non-yielding assets.

Crude oil prices have surged more than 10% this week after renewed military clashes between the United States and Iran intensified concerns over global energy supplies. The rally in oil has revived inflation fears, reinforcing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer. This outlook continues to support the greenback while reducing demand for gold.

Gold Technical Outlook Remains Bearish

From a technical perspective, XAU/USD continues to trade within a descending channel and remains below the critical 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), reinforcing the bearish short-term outlook.

Although the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned slightly positive, suggesting fading downside momentum, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains near 40, indicating stabilization rather than the beginning of a sustained bullish reversal.

Any additional upside is likely to encounter initial resistance near the upper boundary of the descending channel at $4,082.74. A stronger resistance zone lies around the 200-day SMA at $4,495.44.

On the downside, the lower boundary of the descending channel near $3,661.05 serves as key technical support. A decisive break below this level would confirm the prevailing bearish trend and expose gold to deeper losses.

US-Iran Conflict Revives Inflation Concerns

The conflict between the United States and Iran entered a more dangerous phase on Thursday as both sides exchanged increasingly intense attacks.

Iran reportedly expanded its military operations beyond conventional military targets, with officials in Bandar Abbas confirming that civilian infrastructure, including electricity facilities and railway stations, had been hit. Tehran retaliated by launching missile and drone attacks targeting Gulf states allied with the United States.

Meanwhile, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz escalated after US forces intercepted commercial vessels attempting to bypass the naval blockade surrounding Iran.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also threatened to widen the conflict by targeting additional regional energy supply routes. Reports indicated that Iran had instructed Yemen's Houthi forces to prepare for possible disruptions to Red Sea oil shipping routes.

These developments helped crude oil prices remain near one-month highs, raising concerns that higher energy costs could reignite global inflation and complicate the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path.

Strong US Data Reinforces Fed Rate Hike Expectations

Recent US economic data further strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could deliver another interest rate increase before year-end.

The US Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims fell to 208,000 in the week ending July 11, coming in below market expectations and highlighting the continued resilience of the US labor market.

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index jumped sharply from 10.3 to 41.4 in July, marking its highest reading since November 2021 and signaling a significant acceleration in regional manufacturing activity. The report also showed continued increases in price-related components, underscoring persistent inflationary pressures.

Federal Reserve officials maintained their hawkish stance.

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said the recent moderation in consumer and producer inflation was insufficient to provide meaningful relief for US households and argued that slightly higher interest rates may still be necessary to restore price stability.

Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson also stated that he remains open to additional rate hikes if inflation fails to improve in the coming months.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in nearly a 75% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in December.

Gold Outlook Remains Cautious

The combination of rising oil prices, persistent inflation risks, stronger US economic indicators, and hawkish Federal Reserve commentary continues to favor the US dollar and limits gold's recovery potential.

Investors are now focused on Friday's US economic calendar, which includes Building Permits, Housing Starts, Industrial Production, the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and Inflation Expectations. These reports, along with additional remarks from Federal Reserve officials, are expected to influence the US dollar's direction and determine whether gold prices can sustain their recovery near the $4,000 level or extend losses for a second consecutive week.

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Oil Pressures Gold

Gold Prices Slip as Rising Oil Fuels Inflation Concerns and Supports Stronger US Dollar

Gold prices declined on Thursday as another surge in crude oil prices reignited inflation concerns, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates elevated for longer. The stronger US dollar and higher Treasury yield outlook reduced demand for non-yielding assets such as gold.

As of 08:31 WIB, spot gold (XAU/USD) fell 0.59% to $4,036.62 per troy ounce, while Gold Futures slipped 0.24% to $4,042.10.

Softer US Inflation Eases Pressure on the Federal Reserve

US producer prices unexpectedly fell 0.3% in June, defying market expectations for no monthly change. The weaker Producer Price Index (PPI) followed softer Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released earlier this week, reinforcing signs that underlying inflationary pressures are easing.

The back-to-back inflation reports initially strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may delay further interest rate hikes, providing a supportive backdrop for precious metals. However, investors largely overlooked the backward-looking inflation data as renewed conflict in the Middle East pushed crude oil prices higher for a fourth consecutive session.

The renewed rally in oil has revived concerns that rising energy costs could feed into future inflation, limiting the Fed's flexibility to ease monetary policy despite recent progress in reducing price pressures.

While lower inflation would normally weaken the US dollar and support gold by reducing expectations of tighter monetary policy, the sharp rebound in oil prices has cast doubt on whether the current disinflation trend can be sustained.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated this week that policymakers remain committed to bringing inflation back to the central bank's 2% target, emphasizing their readiness to adjust interest rates if price pressures prove more persistent than expected. He also dismissed concerns that rapid investment in artificial intelligence alone would trigger broader inflationary pressures.

Meanwhile, Fed Governor Lisa Cook said she would support additional policy action if inflation remains elevated, while New York Fed President John Williams stated that current interest rates are "well positioned" to return inflation to target, highlighting the central bank's cautious approach despite encouraging inflation data.

Oil Rally Revives Inflation Risks

Despite improving inflation data, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to keep investors on edge.

The United States launched a fifth consecutive day of strikes against Iranian targets, while President Donald Trump pledged to intensify military operations until Tehran halts attacks on commercial shipping and reopens the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) extended their recent gains as markets monitored potential supply disruptions through the critical shipping route, fueling concerns that higher energy prices could once again drive broader inflation.

A sustained increase in oil prices could complicate the Federal Reserve's policy outlook by raising the risk that inflation remains above target for longer. Should policymakers maintain higher interest rates for an extended period, stronger US Treasury yields and a firmer US dollar would likely weigh on gold demand while making the precious metal more expensive for overseas buyers.

Analysts at ANZ said the key question is whether the Federal Reserve views the recent surge in energy prices as a temporary supply shock or as a development that could spill over into broader inflation, potentially influencing future monetary policy decisions.

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Gold Eases Lower

 

Gold Prices Slip as Oil Rally Revives Inflation Concerns and Clouds Fed Outlook

Gold prices edged lower on Thursday as investors reassessed the inflation outlook following another surge in crude oil prices. Rising energy costs have renewed concerns that inflationary pressures could persist, complicating the Federal Reserve's policy path despite softer-than-expected U.S. consumer inflation data released earlier this week.

Gold Declines as Investors Shift Focus to Inflation Risks

As of 1:15 PM WIB, spot gold (XAU/USD) fell 0.6% to $4,028.43 per troy ounce, while Gold Futures slipped 0.8% to $4,035.50. Meanwhile, silver (XAG/USD) dropped 0.5% to $58.35 per ounce, and platinum (XPT/USD) eased 0.1% to $1,629.89 per ounce.

The pullback follows a strong rally earlier in the week, when gold climbed more than 2% after weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a less aggressive monetary stance.

Softer U.S. Inflation Supports Gold, but Rising Oil Prices Offset Optimism

June's U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded the first monthly decline in consumer prices since 2020, easing inflation concerns and pushing Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar lower. The softer inflation report prompted traders to reduce expectations of near-term Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, providing significant support for precious metals.

However, market sentiment quickly shifted as crude oil prices resumed their upward momentum. Investors are increasingly concerned that higher energy costs could reignite inflationary pressures, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for longer than previously anticipated.

Oil Rally Keeps Federal Reserve Policy in the Spotlight

Crude oil prices extended gains for a third consecutive session after President Donald Trump maintained a naval blockade around Iranian ports and warned of further military escalation unless Tehran returned to negotiations. The heightened geopolitical tensions have intensified concerns over global energy supplies, driving oil prices higher.

Persistently elevated energy prices could complicate the Federal Reserve's efforts to bring inflation back to its long-term target. While gold is traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, higher interest rates and stronger bond yields typically reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.

Federal Reserve officials have welcomed the recent moderation in inflation but continue to emphasize that additional evidence is needed before they can confidently conclude that inflation is moving sustainably toward the central bank's target.

ANZ Sees Limited Near-Term Upside for Gold

Analysts at ANZ expect gold prices to remain range-bound in the short term as expectations for at least one Federal Reserve rate hike this year continue to cap upside momentum. Nevertheless, they believe buying interest is likely to re-emerge during deeper price corrections, arguing that the precious metal's long-term fundamentals remain firmly supportive.

Markets Await U.S. Producer Price Data

Investors are now turning their attention to the upcoming U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which could provide fresh insights into inflation trends and the Federal Reserve's next policy move.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets currently assign a 58% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September, down from approximately 76% before Tuesday's softer CPI report, highlighting the market's evolving expectations for U.S. monetary policy.

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Gold Above $4000

 

Gold Recovers Above $4,000 as Markets Await US CPI Data and Fed Chair Warsh Testimony

Gold prices extended their intraday recovery on Tuesday, climbing back above the $4,000 mark after touching their lowest level in nearly two weeks during the Asian session. The rebound was supported by a pause in the US dollar's two-day rally as investors turned cautious ahead of the release of the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's testimony before Congress.

The weaker US dollar provided short-term support for bullion, although broader market sentiment remains cautious as traders assess the outlook for inflation and future Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.

Gold Technical Outlook Remains Bearish Despite Recovery

From a technical perspective, gold continues to trade well below its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), maintaining a broader bearish outlook within a descending channel pattern.

Momentum indicators suggest selling pressure is beginning to ease. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned slightly positive, indicating that bearish momentum is fading. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains around 39, below the neutral 50 level, suggesting that the current rebound is still fragile rather than the start of a confirmed bullish reversal.

Any further upside is likely to face strong selling pressure around the $4,100 resistance level. A sustained breakout above that area could trigger short-covering activity and lift gold toward the upper boundary of the descending channel near $4,221.

Additional buying momentum could then target the key 200-day SMA at $4,495.01. A decisive move above this level would invalidate the current bearish outlook.

On the downside, immediate support is located near $3,761.01, around the lower boundary of the channel. A decisive break below this level could accelerate losses and expose deeper downside risks.

US CPI and Fed Testimony Take Center Stage

Escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, combined with growing expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike, have continued to support the US dollar, prompting traders to remain cautious about chasing further gains in gold.

Markets are now focused on the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) later today. Headline inflation is expected to ease, largely reflecting lower gasoline prices during June. However, investors will pay closer attention to the Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is considered the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of underlying inflation trends.

Adding to market volatility, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver his first semiannual monetary policy testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. His comments are expected to provide fresh guidance on the Fed's interest rate outlook and could significantly influence short-term movements in both the US dollar and gold prices.

Middle East Conflict Keeps Inflation Risks Elevated

Meanwhile, renewed geopolitical tensions continue to support safe-haven demand while also boosting energy prices.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and escalating military confrontation between the United States and Iran pushed crude oil prices to their highest level in nearly a month, reigniting concerns that higher energy costs could keep inflation elevated and force the Federal Reserve to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer.

The US military launched a third consecutive night of strikes against Iranian targets after President Donald Trump reinstated a naval blockade on Iranian ports. In response, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targeted US facilities across the region, while two UAE oil tankers were reportedly struck by Iranian cruise missiles in the Strait of Hormuz.

The escalating conflict prompted traders to quickly price in additional geopolitical risk, strengthening demand for the US dollar.

Despite gold's latest rebound, the overall fundamental backdrop suggests that rallies may continue to attract sellers. As a result, the XAU/USD pair remains vulnerable to another decline toward its year-to-date low around $3,943–$3,942, last recorded on June 30.

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Gold Below $4100

Gold Price Trims Losses but Remains Below $4,100 as Hawkish Fed Bets Limit Recovery

Gold prices recovered part of their intraday losses during the first half of the European session on Tuesday, although the precious metal remained under pressure for a second consecutive day and continued trading below the key $4,100 level. A modest pullback in the US Dollar (USD) provided temporary support for bullion, but the broader market backdrop continued to favor sellers, limiting any meaningful upside.

From a technical perspective, XAU/USD remains firmly below its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) while continuing to trade within a descending parallel channel, reinforcing the prevailing bearish trend. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the 40 mark, suggesting weak momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains slightly positive despite easing from recent highs. These indicators point to only moderate downside momentum but fail to signal a sustained bullish reversal.

Gold Technical Outlook: Key Support and Resistance Levels

The first major support level is located at the psychologically significant $4,000 mark, followed by the year-to-date low near $3,942. A decisive break below this area could expose the lower boundary of the descending channel around $3,782.83, where bargain hunters may attempt to stabilize prices if selling pressure intensifies.

On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at the upper boundary of the channel near $4,291.51. A sustained move above this level would be required to weaken the current bearish outlook. However, the more significant resistance remains the 200-day SMA around $4,494.65, which must be reclaimed before confirming a longer-term bullish trend reversal.

Middle East Conflict Fuels Inflation Fears and Supports Hawkish Fed Expectations

Geopolitical tensions escalated over the weekend after the United States launched large-scale strikes against Iran, prompting Tehran to retaliate with missile attacks targeting U.S. military bases in the Gulf region. In addition, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reportedly attacked another commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz and declared the strategic waterway closed.

The renewed conflict has intensified uncertainty across global energy markets, driving crude oil prices sharply higher and reviving concerns over energy-driven inflation. Rising oil prices have strengthened market expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain higher interest rates or even tighten monetary policy further to contain inflationary pressures.

According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in nearly a 90% probability of another Federal Reserve interest rate hike before the end of the year. This outlook continues to support higher U.S. Treasury yields and has helped the U.S. dollar rebound from last week's multi-day lows, reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.

However, USD bulls remain cautious ahead of fresh economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials. Investors are particularly focused on Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's congressional testimony later this week for additional guidance on the central bank's policy outlook.

US Inflation Data Could Determine Gold's Next Move

Market participants are also closely watching the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday. These key inflation reports are expected to play a crucial role in shaping expectations for future Federal Reserve policy and influencing short-term movements in both the U.S. dollar and gold prices.

A stronger-than-expected inflation reading would likely reinforce expectations for tighter monetary policy, boosting the dollar and putting additional pressure on XAU/USD. Conversely, weaker inflation figures could ease concerns over further rate hikes, providing temporary support for gold.

Despite the potential for short-term volatility, the broader fundamental backdrop remains unfavorable for bullion. As long as expectations for a hawkish Federal Reserve persist and geopolitical tensions continue to support higher energy prices, any recovery in gold is likely to face selling pressure and remain limited.

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