Gold Rises Again

 

Gold Prices Rise Amid Prolonged Middle East Conflict Fears

Gold prices strengthened on Monday (March 2, 2026) as escalating tensions in the Middle East fueled safe-haven demand following military strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran.

According to a report from Reuters, spot gold climbed 0.4% to US$5,297.31 per ounce at 6:31 p.m. local time. The precious metal had earlier surged more than 2% in a single session before trimming gains due to profit-taking. Gold remains near its all-time high of US$5,594.82, recorded on January 29.

Meanwhile, U.S. gold futures settled 1.2% higher at US$5,311.60 per ounce. The U.S. dollar index rose around 1%, making dollar-denominated gold more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Geopolitical Uncertainty Supports Gold Rally

Market uncertainty continues to dominate sentiment as investors assess the potential for a prolonged regional conflict. David Meger, Director of Metals Trading at High Ridge Futures, stated that the lack of clarity surrounding future military developments could continue to underpin gold prices in the coming weeks.

Tensions intensified after the U.S.-Israel air campaign against Iran expanded. Reports indicate that Israel launched strikes on Lebanon in response to Hezbollah attacks, while Tehran continued missile and drone operations targeting Gulf nations. Former U.S. President Donald Trump warned of additional large-scale strikes, although he did not provide details on timing or targets.

The conflict has also disrupted energy markets. Oil and gas prices surged after several production facilities in the Middle East were shut down and shipping routes through the strategic Strait of Hormuz faced disruptions.

Central Banks and Investment Demand Drive Bullion Higher

Analysts at SP Angel noted that increasing geopolitical fragmentation has prompted BRIC central banks to reduce exposure to U.S. dollar-based assets and increase gold holdings. This trend is expected to persist throughout the year.

Similarly, BNP Paribas projects that physical gold investment demand will remain a key driver of the global gold market in 2026.

Year-to-date, gold prices have surged nearly 23%, extending last year’s impressive 64% rally in 2025. The strong performance has been fueled by aggressive central bank buying, substantial inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and expectations of a more accommodative U.S. monetary policy stance.

Limited Physical Supply and Key U.S. Economic Data in Focus

On the physical supply side, gold flows in and out of Dubai’s bullion trading hub are expected to remain limited in the coming days. Flight cancellations caused by labor strikes have disrupted logistics, according to industry sources.

Investors are also closely watching key U.S. economic data releases this week, including the ADP employment report, weekly jobless claims, and non-farm payrolls data, which could influence Federal Reserve policy expectations and gold price direction.

Other Precious Metals Weaken

While gold advanced, other precious metals posted losses:

• Spot silver fell sharply by 5.7% to US$88.46 per ounce, retreating from its highest level since January 30.

• Spot platinum declined 2.7% to US$2,300.50 per ounce.

• Palladium slipped 0.9% to US$1,770.66 per ounce.

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Gold War Surge

  

Gold Price Surges 2% as US-Israel Conflict with Iran Escalates

Gold prices jumped more than 2% in Asian trading on Monday as investors rushed into safe-haven assets following a major military escalation involving the United States and Israel against Iran.

Spot gold climbed 2.1% to $5,387.55 per ounce as of 06:56 WIB, marking its highest level since late January. Meanwhile, U.S. gold futures advanced 2.8% to $5,394.91 per ounce, reflecting strong bullish momentum in the precious metals market.

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Middle East Tensions Drive Safe-Haven Demand

Financial markets reacted sharply to the unprecedented escalation in the Middle East. Reports of a large-scale strike targeting Iran, including the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, intensified fears of a broader regional conflict.

Investors are increasingly concerned about potential disruptions to global oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz — a critical energy corridor. The rising geopolitical risk has triggered a classic risk-off move across global markets.

Israeli forces reportedly launched additional waves of strikes in Tehran on Sunday, targeting command centers and air defense infrastructure. Iran responded with missile attacks directed toward Israeli territory and U.S. military bases in the Gulf region.

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Gold Strengthens as Equities Fall, Oil Prices Spike

The geopolitical shock sent global equities lower while crude oil prices surged, reinforcing gold’s appeal as a store of value during times of uncertainty.

Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist at Pepperstone, highlighted key resistance levels to watch:

“Trying to gauge the extent of the move is clearly challenging, though I would flag $5,400/oz followed by the late-January record high of $5,595/oz as key upside levels.”

He added that recent developments strengthen the fundamental bullish case for gold, noting that safe-haven inflows, strong retail demand, and central bank buying continue to provide tailwinds.

Brown also sees potential for gold to test the $6,000 per ounce level by year-end if geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions remain supportive.

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Gold Up Nearly 25% Year-to-Date

Gold has rallied nearly 25% so far this year, supported by:

• Rising geopolitical risks

• Ongoing central bank purchases

• Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts

Among other precious metals, silver rose 1.3% to $95.15 per ounce, while platinum gained 0.3% to $2,396.11 per ounce.

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Merdeka Gold Shipment

  

Merdeka Gold Resources Begins First Gold Shipment to Antam Refinery

PT Merdeka Gold Resources Tbk (IDX: EMAS) has officially completed its first gold shipment to the refining facility of PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (Antam), marking a major milestone toward stable commercial production.

The milestone follows the company’s first gold pour on February 14, 2026. A total of 44.04 kilograms of dore gold was delivered for refining, signaling operational readiness and strengthening the transition phase toward full-scale commercial output.

First Shipment Signals Operational Readiness

The first dore shipment represents a critical step in EMAS’ production ramp-up strategy. Dore refining is the final stage in gold processing, where impurities such as silver and other metals are separated from gold through chemical or electrolysis methods. This process results in high-purity gold and silver products ready for market distribution.

President Director Boyke Poerbaya Abidin stated that the refining phase reflects the company’s dynamic progress toward commercial production while ensuring that output from the Pani Gold Mine meets strict quality standards.

The delivery of dore to Antam’s refining facility further underscores the operational readiness of the Pani project.

Focus on 2026 Production Target

As a subsidiary of PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk (MDKA), EMAS is focused on maintaining disciplined production aligned with its 2026 targets.

The company is targeting gold production from the Pani Gold Mine at 110,000–115,000 ounces in 2026. To support this objective, EMAS is accelerating the development of its Carbon-in-Leach (CIL) processing facility, which will complement existing heap leach operations.

The integration of heap leach and CIL technology is designed to gradually increase output toward a long-term production capacity of approximately 500,000 ounces of gold per year.

“Additionally, the company is expediting the development of the Carbon-in-Leach (CIL) facility to achieve higher and more optimal production levels,” Boyke said in an official statement on Thursday (February 26).

Long-Term Growth Strategy and ESG Commitment

With more than 7 million ounces in gold resources and a competitive cost profile, the Pani Gold Mine is projected to become a key contributor to the Merdeka Group’s production growth and cash flow in the coming years.

EMAS remains committed to responsible mining practices, implementing Good Mining Practices (GMP) principles alongside high Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) standards.

The first gold shipment not only marks a technical achievement but also strengthens investor confidence in EMAS’ long-term production roadmap and sustainable growth strategy.

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Gold Safe Haven

Gold Holds Gains as Safe-Haven Demand Persists Ahead of US-Iran Talks

Gold prices remain firm during Thursday’s European session, supported by ongoing safe-haven flows ahead of the highly anticipated US-Iran negotiations in Geneva. However, buyers appear cautious, waiting for a sustained move above the $5,200 psychological level before initiating fresh bullish positions.

Gold Technical Analysis: XAU/USD Maintains Bullish Bias

On the daily chart, XAU/USD is trading at $5,187.14, maintaining a mildly bullish short-term outlook. The precious metal continues to hold above the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $5,020 and the 50-day SMA around $4,775. Meanwhile, the upward-sloping 100-day and 200-day SMAs remain well below current price levels, reinforcing the broader uptrend.

Momentum indicators also favor the bulls. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 59, remaining in positive territory without entering overbought conditions. This suggests buyers retain control after digesting April’s extended rally.

Gold is also trading above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $5,141, measured from the $4,401–$5,598 rally. This indicates that the recent pullback remains within a healthy corrective phase.

Key Support Levels

• Immediate support: $5,141 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement)

• Secondary support: $5,000 (50% retracement and 21-day SMA cluster)

• Next downside pivot: $4,859 (38.2% retracement)

Key Resistance Levels

• Near-term resistance: $5,240 (recent local high)

• Breakout target: $5,342 (78.6% retracement level)

• Major resistance: $5,598 (previous peak)

A daily close above $5,240 could pave the way toward $5,342. A sustained move beyond that level would reaffirm the broader bullish trend and bring the $5,598 high back into focus.

US Dollar Under Pressure Amid Risk Optimism

The US Dollar (USD) remains under pressure against major currencies after strong earnings from chip giant NVIDIA Corporation boosted global risk appetite, reducing demand for traditional safe-haven assets like the Greenback.

Additional pressure stems from persistent uncertainty surrounding US trade policy and fresh selling in USD/JPY. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated Wednesday that tariffs on certain countries could rise to 15% or higher, up from the recently implemented 10%, though no further details were provided.

Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen continues to strengthen following comments from Kazuo Ueda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, who signaled that March and April meetings could be active for policy decisions. BoJ board member Hajime Takata also emphasized that the central bank should continue gradual rate hikes.

Geopolitical Risks Support Gold Ahead of US-Iran Talks

Gold is also benefiting from rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, as both nations meet in Geneva for the third round of negotiations.

Ahead of the talks, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that Iran’s refusal to discuss ballistic missile issues remains a significant obstacle.

At the same time, dovish expectations surrounding potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve continue to support non-yielding assets like gold, despite recent hawkish rhetoric from policymakers.

Market Outlook: Focus on US Data and Diplomatic Developments

Traders are closely monitoring geopolitical headlines and upcoming US Initial Jobless Claims data for fresh direction.

If the US-Iran negotiations conclude without a meaningful agreement on Iran’s nuclear program, markets could interpret the outcome negatively. A disappointing result may increase speculation about potential US military action, further boosting safe-haven demand and potentially driving gold prices higher.

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Gold Above $5,150

  

Gold Holds Above $5,150 as Trump’s State of the Union Speech Fuels Safe-Haven Demand

Gold prices remain firm above the $5,150 level after rebounding from the previous session’s pullback from monthly highs. The precious metal attracted renewed buying interest as traders evaluated President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address, with ongoing trade uncertainty and rising geopolitical risks supporting demand for the traditional safe-haven asset.

Technical Analysis: Bullish Momentum Remains Intact

From a technical perspective, gold maintains a strong bullish bias. The 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) has crossed above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMAs, with all slopes trending upward — a clear confirmation of sustained upside momentum.

Price action continues to hold above these key trend indicators, with the 21-day SMA at $5,029.61 providing dynamic near-term support. Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 59.50, slightly above the midpoint, reinforcing steady bullish momentum without signaling overbought conditions.

Measured from the swing high of $5,597.89 to the low of $4,401.99, gold is stabilizing between the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $5,141.05 and the 78.6% retracement at $5,341.96. The latter level is currently capping upside movement.

A daily close above the 78.6% retracement could open the path toward a retest of previous highs. However, rejection at this level may trigger a corrective pullback toward the 50-day SMA at $4,742.30. As long as prices respect short-term moving averages, the near-term outlook favors continued consolidation within the retracement range before a decisive breakout.

US Dollar Stabilizes as Asian Markets Reopen

With Chinese and Japanese markets reopening, liquidity has returned to global markets, allowing the US Dollar (USD) to stabilize. Risk sentiment improved modestly after recent volatility driven by renewed tariff confusion linked to President Trump.

Over the weekend, tariff-related uncertainty triggered a “Sell America” trade, undermining investor confidence. Wall Street extended losses on Monday amid lingering concerns over trade policy, escalating geopolitical tensions, and caution ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report scheduled for Wednesday.

Gold paused its four-day rally due to the moderate USD rebound, briefly testing critical support near $5,142 after retreating from monthly highs.

Trade Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risks Support Gold

Markets remain highly sensitive to tariff headlines. The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday morning that the Trump administration is considering new national security tariffs on several industries, following last Friday’s Supreme Court ruling that overturned many tariffs from Trump’s second term.

In addition to trade tensions, geopolitical risks remain elevated as tensions between the United States and Iran continue to intensify.

Furthermore, expectations for at least two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year continue to provide underlying support for gold prices. Lower interest rate expectations typically weaken the dollar and enhance the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.

Gold is also supported by strong physical investment demand from India, even as prices hover near record highs, according to Money Metals Exchange.

Gold Price Outlook

Overall, gold remains well-supported above the $5,150 area amid trade uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and expectations of Fed rate cuts. Unless a strong USD rally emerges, dips are likely to remain limited as investors continue seeking protection in safe-haven assets.

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Gold Tariff Rally

Gold Hits Three-Week High on Trump Tariff Uncertainty

Gold prices surged to their highest level in three weeks on Monday (February 23, 2026), driven by rising safe-haven demand amid renewed uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy under President Donald Trump and the future direction of U.S. interest rates.

Spot gold climbed nearly 2% to US$5,206.39 per ounce at the close of the U.S. session, after touching its strongest level since late January. Meanwhile, U.S. gold futures for April delivery advanced 2.8% to settle at US$5,225.60 per ounce.

The rally followed Trump’s announcement that he would raise import tariffs after the Supreme Court of the United States previously struck down much of his earlier tariff policy. Over the weekend, Trump confirmed a temporary tariff increase on all U.S. imports from 10% to 15% — the maximum level allowed by law.

The move sparked fresh concerns across global markets, particularly regarding its potential impact on inflation and economic growth.

“Global economic and political uncertainty remains elevated. With market activity returning to normal after the Lunar New Year holiday, gold has greater room to strengthen,” said Jeffrey Christian, Managing Partner at CPM Group.

From a macroeconomic perspective, the latest data showed that core U.S. inflation rose more than expected in December, while economic growth slowed sharply in the fourth quarter. This combination could prompt the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer — a factor that typically limits gold’s upside potential.

However, ongoing geopolitical tensions and policy risks are seen as strong enough to continue supporting bullion prices.

Investors are also watching for the reopening of mainland China’s markets on Tuesday following the Lunar New Year holiday. As the world’s largest gold consumer, China’s return is expected to boost liquidity and potentially add further demand momentum.

Beyond gold, spot silver jumped 3.2% to US$87.23 per ounce, marking its highest level in more than two weeks. Platinum slipped 0.7% to US$2.140.75 per ounce, while palladium edged up 0.1% to US$1,750.53 per ounce.

Overall, the gold rally reflects a renewed defensive stance among investors, with U.S. tariff developments and global interest rate expectations likely to remain key drivers of price movements in the near term.

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