Gold Holds Steady

Gold Price Trades Below $4,100 as Stronger US Dollar Offsets Dovish Fed Rate Expectations

Gold prices (XAU/USD) struggled to build on a modest bullish gap at the weekly open, remaining below the $4,100 mark ahead of the European session. A moderate rebound in the US Dollar (USD) from its lowest level since June 17 capped gains in the precious metal, although the dollar's upside appears limited by easing expectations for additional Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and renewed optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran peace agreement.

Gold Price Outlook Remains Bearish Despite Consolidation

From a technical perspective, XAU/USD continues to trade within a familiar consolidation range below its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Given the recent decline, this price action still reflects a bearish consolidation phase, suggesting that the path of least resistance remains to the downside unless buyers reclaim key resistance levels.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains in positive territory with a reading near 11.6, signaling tentative bullish momentum. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) stands at 47.1, indicating neutral market conditions and limited directional conviction.

As a result, any further upside is likely to face strong resistance around the $4,100 level.

Key Resistance and Support Levels to Watch

A sustained break above $4,100 would expose the upper boundary of the current trading range just below $4,200. If buyers successfully clear that barrier, gold could extend its recovery toward the 200-day SMA near $4,490.33, a technically significant level that would weaken the prevailing bearish outlook and signal the potential for a broader bullish reversal.

On the downside, immediate support is located around the recent swing low between $3,976 and $4,000, where buyers previously stepped into the market. A decisive break below this support zone would reinforce bearish momentum and increase the likelihood of a deeper decline in XAU/USD.

US-Iran Peace Hopes and OPEC+ Decision Ease Inflation Concerns

Market sentiment improved after US President Donald Trump announced that a planned military strike against Iran had been canceled, stating that Middle Eastern allies had reached the framework of an agreement regarding Tehran's nuclear program and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump also revealed that US and Iranian officials would resume negotiations on Monday afternoon, raising optimism that a diplomatic solution could bring an end to the five-month regional conflict.

Adding to the positive sentiment, OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to increase crude oil production in September, triggering a sharp decline in oil prices. Lower energy prices eased inflation concerns and reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve will need to maintain an aggressive tightening cycle.

The combination of softer inflation expectations and a weaker outlook for Fed rate hikes could limit further gains in the US dollar while providing underlying support for gold prices.

Traders Await US Economic Data and Nonfarm Payrolls

Despite the improving macro backdrop for gold, traders remain reluctant to establish fresh bearish positions against the US dollar as geopolitical risks in the Middle East continue to create uncertainty across global financial markets.

Investors are now closely monitoring incoming geopolitical headlines, which could drive volatility and influence demand for safe-haven assets such as the US dollar and gold.

Attention also turns to a busy week of high-impact US economic data. The schedule begins with the ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday, followed by several labor market indicators throughout the week.

The primary focus will be Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is expected to provide fresh insight into the strength of the US labor market and shape market expectations for the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision. Stronger-than-expected employment data could support the US dollar and weigh on gold, while weaker figures may reinforce expectations for a more dovish Fed and provide additional upside for the precious metal.

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Gold Below $4100

 

Gold Price Falls but Holds Above $4,000 as Iran Tensions Revive US Dollar Demand

Gold prices extended their decline on Friday after a two-day recovery, slipping well below the $4,100 mark as the US Dollar (USD) regained momentum. Escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran revived inflation concerns and reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could still raise interest rates later this year, boosting the greenback and weighing on the precious metal. Meanwhile, the technical outlook continues to favor sellers, signaling the potential for further downside.

On the daily chart, XAU/USD was trading at $4,082.83, maintaining a bearish short-term bias as the pair remains below its key moving averages. The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,185.76, the 100-day SMA at $4,426.31, and the 200-day SMA at $4,490.85 all remain above current prices, indicating that recent rebounds are still part of a broader corrective phase. Meanwhile, the 21-day SMA at $4,073.95 provides immediate dynamic support.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) stands near 48.3, slightly below the neutral 50 level, suggesting weakening momentum while reinforcing the view that gold remains trapped in a broader bearish consolidation.

On the upside, the first major resistance is located at the 50-day SMA near $4,185.76. A decisive daily close above this level would ease immediate selling pressure and pave the way toward the 100-day SMA at $4,426.31, followed by the 200-day SMA at $4,490.85. On the downside, initial support is found at the 21-day SMA around $4,073.95. A sustained break below this level would expose lower support zones and confirm that sellers have regained control of the daily trend.

Gold failed to hold above the $4,100 psychological level despite closing above it on Thursday, as the US Dollar Index staged a solid rebound from a six-week low against a basket of major currencies.

Although Pakistani mediators confirmed that negotiations between Tehran and Washington remain ongoing, renewed military escalation following a heavy US strike on Iran in retaliation for another attack targeting American forces in Jordan revived safe-haven demand for the US dollar.

In response, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf wrote on X that, "Americans have become accustomed to compensating for the blows they receive on the battlefield by shedding the blood of innocent people. They will pay the price."

The US dollar also drew additional support from persistent expectations that the Federal Reserve could still deliver another interest rate hike later this year, even though Fed Chair Kevin Warsh offered no clear guidance on additional monetary tightening during Wednesday's post-policy meeting press conference.

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Gold Sellers Dominate

 

Gold Sellers Stay in Control Ahead of US Q2 GDP Data

Gold prices remained under pressure during the first half of Thursday's European session, extending their bearish tone after failing to sustain gains near the $4,100 level. Following Wednesday's post-FOMC decline to a one-week low, the US Dollar (USD) regained momentum amid renewed US-Iran tensions, weighing on XAU/USD ahead of the release of the preliminary US Q2 GDP report.

At the time of writing, XAU/USD was trading around $4,053.13, maintaining a short-term bearish bias as spot prices continued to trade below all major Simple Moving Averages (SMAs).

The 21-day SMA at $4,073.46 now serves as the nearest resistance level, while the 50-day SMA at $4,193.29, 100-day SMA at $4,435.77, and 200-day SMA at $4,490.68 reinforce a stronger resistance zone. Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 46.00, slightly below the neutral level, suggesting weakening downside momentum rather than deeply oversold conditions.

Gold Technical Outlook Remains Bearish

From a technical perspective, the first upside barrier is the 21-day SMA near $4,073, followed by the 50-day SMA around $4,193. A sustained move above these levels could improve short-term sentiment, although the 100-day and 200-day SMAs near $4,436 and $4,491 remain significant medium-term resistance levels that bulls must reclaim to shift the broader technical outlook.

On the downside, the absence of a clear support level leaves gold vulnerable to further losses. Any renewed test of recent lows could see price action driven primarily by momentum and order flows until a stronger structural support level emerges.

Safe-Haven Demand Supports the US Dollar

Gold surrendered its earlier gains as the US Dollar attracted fresh buying interest following renewed safe-haven demand after the United States launched fresh military strikes against Iran on Wednesday.

US Central Command announced on X that it had completed a "wave of heavy strikes" targeting the southwestern Iranian city of Abadan and Qeshm Island. According to the US military, the operation was carried out in response to an attempted Iranian missile attack on American forces in the region and aimed to reduce threats posed by Iran and its regional proxies to US personnel, commercial shipping, and neighboring Gulf states.

Although crude oil prices found modest support from the renewed Middle East conflict after a brief weekend lull, gold buyers remained cautious as persistent inflation concerns offset the traditional safe-haven appeal of the precious metal following oil's 6.5% rally in the previous session.

Fed Policy Uncertainty Keeps Markets on Edge

Gold experienced volatile two-way trading on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, in line with market expectations. However, the decision was accompanied by an unexpectedly hawkish 9-3 vote, reinforcing the central bank's commitment to controlling inflation.

The FXS Fed Sentiment Index remained unchanged at a hawkish 128.64, indicating that the overall policy stance continues to favor tighter monetary conditions. Combined with an elevated FXS SpeechTracker reading, the data suggest that the Fed continues to provide fundamental support for the US Dollar despite leaving interest rates unchanged.

However, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's cautious comments regarding additional policy tightening raised uncertainty over whether the central bank can keep long-term inflation expectations anchored and whether another rate hike remains possible at the September FOMC meeting.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now assign a 35% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged again in September, up from 24% a day earlier.

US GDP and PCE Inflation Data in Focus

Looking ahead, investors will closely monitor the preliminary US second-quarter GDP report, which is expected to show the US economy expanding at an annualized 2.1%, matching the pace recorded in the previous quarter.

Alongside the GDP release, traders will also focus on the latest US Initial Jobless Claims and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure. These reports are expected to provide fresh guidance on the US economic outlook, future Fed policy expectations, and the next directional move for gold prices.

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Gold Eyes FOMC

Gold Recovers Toward $4,050 as Traders Await FOMC Policy Decision

Gold prices extended their intraday recovery during Wednesday's European session, climbing toward the $4,050 level after rebounding from their lowest point in more than a week. A modest pullback in the US Dollar provided support for the precious metal, although upside momentum remained limited as investors awaited the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting.

At the time of writing, XAU/USD was trading around $4,028.78, remaining in a corrective phase below all major moving averages and maintaining a bearish short-term technical outlook.

On the daily chart, the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $4,070 acts as the first resistance level, while the 50-day SMA around $4,202 reinforces the broader upside barrier. Meanwhile, the 100-day and 200-day SMAs, clustered between $4,447 and $4,491, suggest that the medium-term trend remains under pressure. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 44, below the neutral 50 mark, indicating that bearish momentum still dominates despite the absence of oversold conditions.

From a technical perspective, immediate resistance is located at the 21-day SMA around $4,070, followed by the 50-day SMA near $4,202, where renewed selling interest could emerge if bullion extends its rebound. A sustained move above these levels would be required to challenge the longer-term resistance zone between the 100-day SMA at $4,447 and the 200-day SMA at $4,491, which continues to define the broader bearish structure.

On the downside, with no significant moving-average support nearby, traders are likely to focus on recent swing lows and the key psychological $4,000 level as the next demand zone. A decisive break below this threshold could expose gold to deeper losses.

Gold is currently consolidating after two consecutive sessions of declines as investors reposition ahead of the highly anticipated Federal Reserve policy announcement.

The precious metal found support from a softer US Dollar, which extended overnight losses following weaker-than-expected US June Goods Trade Balance data and profit-taking after the greenback's three-month high.

However, renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East triggered a sharp 4% rally in crude oil prices, reviving inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve could maintain a hawkish stance. Rising inflation expectations generally support higher interest rates, limiting the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.

According to reports, the US Central Command carried out precision strikes in Iraq targeting Iran-backed groups allegedly preparing attacks on US forces and Saudi oil facilities. The escalation followed reports that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched several ballistic missiles toward US military positions in the Middle East and energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, adding another layer of geopolitical uncertainty to global financial markets.

Despite safe-haven demand, gold traders remain cautious ahead of the FOMC decision, avoiding aggressive positioning as markets continue to price in the possibility of another rate hike.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets currently assign roughly a 30% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike at the July meeting, up from approximately 25% a week earlier, while expectations for a September rate increase remain close to 80%.

Beyond the interest rate decision itself, investors will closely monitor the voting split within the FOMC and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh for fresh guidance on the outlook for monetary policy.

Should policymakers acknowledge persistent inflation, deliver a more hawkish-than-expected voting outcome, or signal that another rate hike remains possible later this year, the US Dollar and Treasury yields could strengthen further, putting renewed pressure on non-yielding gold.

Conversely, if the Fed downplays the inflationary impact of rising energy prices and reiterates that future policy decisions will remain data-dependent, expectations for a September rate hike could ease. Such an outcome would likely weaken the US Dollar, push Treasury yields lower, and provide additional support for a sustained recovery in gold prices.

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Gold Stays Weak

Gold prices remained under pressure during Tuesday's Asian session, extending their daily losses below the $4,050 mark as traders continued to favor the US dollar ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy decision. XAU/USD was trading around $4,047.22, down 0.85% on the day after failing to sustain Monday's recovery above the $4,100 resistance level.

The latest price action reinforces the bearish outlook for gold, with sellers maintaining firm control as investors brace for the Federal Reserve's interest rate announcement and updated policy guidance.

From a technical perspective, gold continues to display a negative short-term bias. The precious metal remains below the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,070.45 and well beneath the 50-day SMA at $4,212.98, 100-day SMA at $4,458.42, and 200-day SMA at $4,492.57. The downward slope of these moving averages suggests that any recovery attempt could face strong selling pressure.

Momentum indicators also favor the bears. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 44.99, remaining below the neutral 50 level and indicating that bullish momentum remains limited despite recent attempts to stabilize.

Adding to the negative technical picture, the 100-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on July 22, confirming a classic Bear Cross, a widely watched bearish signal that often points to continued downside momentum over the medium term.

On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at the 21-day SMA near $4,070, followed by stronger resistance around the 50-day SMA at $4,213. Additional barriers are located at the 100-day SMA near $4,458 and the 200-day SMA around $4,493, creating a broad supply zone that could cap any sustained recovery.

With no major technical support defined by the moving averages, a decisive break below $4,047 could expose gold to a retest of previous swing lows and other key horizontal support levels on the daily chart.

Fundamentally, bullion remains pressured by renewed demand for the US dollar. The greenback rebounded sharply on Monday and continues to trade near a three-week high as markets increasingly believe the Federal Reserve could still deliver another interest rate hike.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in approximately a 38% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the July meeting, up significantly from around 16% just over a week ago. Markets also assign an 81% chance of another rate increase in September, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance.

Persistent hawkish expectations have outweighed optimism generated by easing geopolitical tensions following the temporary pause in hostilities between the United States and Iran. At the same time, lower crude oil prices have helped reduce inflation concerns, but have not been enough to weaken the dollar or US Treasury yields.

Risk sentiment also deteriorated after a deeper sell-off in Asian semiconductor stocks, boosting demand for traditional safe-haven assets such as the US dollar while limiting interest in non-yielding assets like gold.

Looking ahead, gold is likely to remain vulnerable as long as the US dollar stays supported by hawkish Federal Reserve expectations and cautious market sentiment. Traders are also expected to avoid taking aggressive directional positions before Wednesday's FOMC policy announcement, leaving XAU/USD susceptible to further downside pressure if the central bank delivers a more hawkish-than-expected message.

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Gold Awaits FOMC

Gold Price Holds Firm on US-Iran Diplomacy Hopes and Reduced Fed Rate Hike Bets, Bulls Remain Cautious

Gold prices (XAU/USD) remained resilient on Monday, holding above the $4,100 level as renewed optimism over a diplomatic resolution between the United States and Iran helped ease geopolitical tensions. However, the precious metal struggled to extend its gains, with investors remaining cautious ahead of this week's highly anticipated Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

The yellow metal maintained its positive tone during the early European session after opening with a modest bullish gap. Despite the initial strength, buying momentum remained limited as traders refrained from making aggressive bets before the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision.

Market sentiment improved following renewed hopes that diplomatic negotiations could bring an end to the five-month conflict between the United States and Iran. The easing geopolitical risk triggered a sharp decline in crude oil prices, reducing inflation concerns and lowering expectations for additional Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.

The pullback in oil prices has softened demand for traditional inflation hedges such as gold. At the same time, investors continue to assess the outlook for US monetary policy, with the Fed widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged while signaling its stance on future rate adjustments.

With the FOMC meeting taking center stage this week, traders are expected to closely monitor the Fed's policy statement and comments from Chair Kevin Warsh for fresh clues on inflation, economic growth, and the timing of potential interest rate cuts.

While gold continues to benefit from safe-haven demand, the lack of strong bullish conviction suggests that XAU/USD could remain range-bound until clearer guidance emerges from the Federal Reserve.

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