Gold Faces Resistance

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Struggles Below $4,300 as Fed Rate Hike Expectations Grow

Key Highlights

• Gold remains above $4,250 after failing to secure a breakout above $4,370.

• The Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance has strengthened expectations for additional rate hikes this year, boosting the US Dollar.

• XAU/USD faces a strong resistance zone above the $4,300 level.

Gold prices posted modest gains on Thursday but remained close to the weekly low near $4,220. The precious metal's recovery, initially supported by optimism surrounding a potential peace agreement involving Iran, lost momentum after the Federal Reserve delivered a more hawkish-than-expected message, fueling speculation of further interest rate increases later this year.

As widely anticipated, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged. However, newly appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed the central bank’s commitment to bringing inflation back to its 2% target and issued a policy statement that omitted any clear dovish bias.

The Fed highlighted improving economic activity and continued strength in the labor market. Additionally, updated rate projections showed that nine of the 19 policymakers expect at least one interest rate increase in 2026. As a result, futures markets have increased bets on a potential rate hike as early as October, supporting both US Treasury yields and the US Dollar.

A stronger US Dollar typically weighs on gold demand by making the precious metal more expensive for international buyers, while higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold.

XAU/USD Technical Analysis: Searching for Direction Below $4,300

XAU/USD is currently trading around $4,269, maintaining a broader bearish bias as prices remain below a dense resistance zone. While momentum indicators on the daily chart have improved slightly, they continue to signal a bearish market structure.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains just above the 40 mark, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator stays marginally negative. Together, these indicators suggest that downside momentum has weakened but has not yet reversed.

On the upside, bullish attempts stalled near the former support level at $4,370, which marked the low recorded on May 28. This level, combined with the descending trendline resistance from the early March highs and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,464, forms a significant resistance cluster that could limit further gains.

On the downside, Wednesday’s low near $4,220 is expected to provide initial support. A break below this level could expose the June 11 low at $4,023. Further weakness may open the door toward the late-October 2025 low near $3,886, which represents the next major downside target for gold prices.

Gold Outlook

The near-term outlook for gold remains cautious as traders balance geopolitical developments against expectations for tighter US monetary policy. Unless XAU/USD manages to reclaim the $4,300–$4,370 resistance area, downside risks are likely to remain in focus, especially if the US Dollar and Treasury yields continue to strengthen.

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EMAS Targets HKEX

Half of EMAS IPO Allocated to Global Investors as Merdeka Gold Resources Targets Hong Kong Listing

PT Merdeka Gold Resources Tbk (EMAS) has secured strong backing from a group of strategic and global financial cornerstone investors ahead of its planned listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX).

The strategic investors include Wanguo Gold Group Limited, CNGR (Hong Kong Material Science & Technology) Co. Limited, Mercuria Holdings (Singapore) Pte. Ltd., Trafigura Pte. Ltd., Glencore International AG, and Intera Mining Investment Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of JCHX Mining Management Co. Ltd.

Meanwhile, financial cornerstone investors comprise Ping An of China Asset Management (Hong Kong) Company Limited, GF (Guangfa) Fund Management Co., Ltd., Eurus Holdings SPC (ORIX), Dymon Asia Multi-Strategy Investment Master Fund, and Wind Sabre Fund SPC.

Global Offering Attracts Strong Investor Demand

EMAS will begin its international institutional bookbuilding process from June 17 to June 23, 2026.

Cornerstone investors have collectively committed to subscribe to 49.9% of the shares offered in the base offering, representing the maximum allocation permitted under HKEX listing regulations.

The global offering represents approximately 7% of EMAS' enlarged issued share capital after the full exercise of the greenshoe option. All shares offered in the transaction are secondary shares sold by minority shareholders.

PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk (MDKA), the controlling shareholder of EMAS, will not participate in the share sale and will retain its entire strategic ownership stake in Merdeka Gold Resources.

The Hong Kong listing is being sponsored by UBS and CITIC Securities, while Morgan Stanley, HSBC, CICC, and Macquarie are serving as Joint Overall Coordinators, Joint Global Coordinators, and Joint Bookrunners.

Several international financial institutions, including DBS, Mizuho, OCBC, UOB Kay Hian, Société Générale, Natixis, and Crédit Agricole, are also participating as Joint Bookrunners and Lead Managers.

Global Investors Recognize EMAS Growth Potential

Merdeka Gold Resources President Director Boyke P. Abidin said the participation of leading global investors reflects confidence in the company's asset quality, operational execution capabilities, and long-term growth prospects.

"The support from global investors in this transaction reflects confidence in the quality of the Pani Gold Project, EMAS' execution capabilities, and our long-term growth potential," Boyke said in an official statement on Wednesday (June 17, 2026).

Pani Gold Mine Strengthens EMAS Investment Story

As of December 31, 2025, the Pani Gold Mine held mineral resources of approximately 7.0 million ounces of gold and ore reserves of 5.2 million ounces, making it one of Asia's most significant primary gold deposits.

Notably, the current mineral resource estimate is derived from only a small area of approximately 135 hectares surrounding the main Pani pit, compared with the company's total concession area of 14,670 hectares.

Recent drilling activities at the Kolokoa Prospect, located around one kilometer from the main Pani pit, were conducted over a six-month period and added approximately 445,000 ounces of gold to the mine's mineral resource estimate. As a result, total mineral resources at the Pani Gold Mine have increased to approximately 7.4 million ounces of gold.

Production Capacity Set to Expand by 2028

Under its phased development strategy, the Pani Gold Mine's processing capacity is expected to increase to 22 million tonnes per year by 2028.

The expansion is projected to support peak annual gold production of approximately 545,000 ounces, reinforcing EMAS' position as one of Southeast Asia's leading gold producers and enhancing its long-term value proposition for international investors.

EMAS HKEX Listing Highlights

• Cornerstone investors committed to 49.9% of offered shares.

• Global offering represents around 7% of enlarged share capital.

• Pani Gold Mine resources increased to 7.4 million ounces.

• Processing capacity targeted to reach 22 million tonnes annually by 2028.

• Peak gold production projected at approximately 545,000 ounces per year.

• MDKA retains full strategic ownership stake in EMAS.

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Gold Awaits Fed

Gold Holds Gains Above $4,300 as Cautious Markets Await Fed Decision

Gold prices maintained a mildly positive tone on Tuesday, holding onto gains after rallying approximately 6.5% over the past several days. However, the precious metal's recovery lost momentum after climbing above the $4,300 level, trading largely flat as early optimism surrounding the U.S.-Iran peace agreement faded and investors awaited further details on the deal as well as upcoming monetary policy decisions from major central banks.

On the daily chart, the short-term outlook for XAU/USD remains bearish as prices continue to trade below the Bollinger Bands midpoint and well beneath the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), keeping the broader recovery structure constrained. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 43, remaining below the neutral 50 level and signaling persistent downside pressure despite recent stabilization efforts.

On the upside, immediate resistance is located at the June 9 high of $4,363. The next key hurdle is the Bollinger Bands midpoint near $4,415. Beyond that, the upper Bollinger Band around $4,685 and the 100-day SMA near $4,762 form a broader supply zone should the rebound extend further.

On the downside, the lower Bollinger Band near $4,145 serves as the next critical support level. A decisive break below this area could expose gold to deeper losses toward previous swing lows.

Markets Digest U.S.-Iran Peace Framework

According to Bloomberg, U.S. President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance signed an electronic memorandum of understanding with Iran on Monday. Trump stated that the Strait of Hormuz has already been “partially reopened” and is expected to be “fully reopened” by Friday.

“The gold market is moving beyond the conflict and removing it from pricing,” said Phillip Streible, Chief Market Strategist at Blue Line Futures. “The peace deal news has pushed Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar, and oil prices lower, reducing one of the market’s biggest inflation and cross-asset risks.”

Despite the positive headlines, caution remains elevated as both sides continue to provide differing accounts on key issues. Iran reportedly intends to collect certain fees for passage through the strategically important waterway, while Trump has insisted the Strait will be fully reopened by Friday without toll charges.

Trump also warned on Monday that if Iran fails to finalize a nuclear agreement with the United States, military operations against Tehran could resume.

Fed Rate Decision in Focus

Expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes eased following the peace framework announcement, providing support for gold, a non-yielding asset that tends to benefit from lower interest rate expectations.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders reduced the probability of a December rate hike to 58%, down from nearly 70% last week.

The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its latest monetary policy decision on Wednesday. Economists widely expect the U.S. central bank to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged within the 3.50%–3.75% range while assessing how energy-price shocks from recent geopolitical tensions may affect broader inflation trends and economic growth.

XAU/USD Technical Outlook

While gold remains supported above the $4,300 level, the broader technical picture continues to favor caution. Traders are likely to remain focused on Federal Reserve guidance, geopolitical developments, and key support and resistance levels as the market searches for its next directional catalyst.

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Gold Gains Momentum

Gold Gains Momentum as US-Iran Peace Deal Boosts Market Sentiment

Gold prices climbed to their highest level in a week during early European trading on Monday, rebounding after the United States and Iran reached a preliminary peace agreement aimed at ending their prolonged conflict. The development eased concerns over inflation and the prospect of higher interest rates, providing fresh support for the precious metal.

XAU/USD Technical Outlook Remains Bearish

On the daily chart, XAU/USD was trading at $4,326.30. Despite the recent rebound, the precious metal continues to maintain a short-term bearish bias, with spot prices remaining below the 21-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs).

The clustering of these moving averages well above current prices suggests that the latest rally may represent a corrective bounce within a broader downtrend. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains near 44, indicating moderate negative momentum rather than a fully oversold condition.

On the upside, initial resistance is located near the 21-day SMA at $4,421, followed by the 200-day SMA around $4,454, where the first significant supply zone is expected to emerge. Further resistance levels are seen at the 50-day SMA near $4,581 and the 100-day SMA around $4,762. A sustained move above these levels would be required to weaken the prevailing bearish technical structure.

Fundamental Overview

The nearly four-month conflict between the United States and Iran appears to be nearing an end after both sides announced a preliminary peace agreement on Sunday. The deal is expected to take effect on Friday, June 19.

U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the agreement would ultimately ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains permanently open to global shipping, according to reports published by The New York Times.

However, Trump also warned that military action against Tehran could resume if Iran fails to reach a final nuclear agreement with Washington. He added that the United States could assume a broader security role in the Middle East in exchange for a share of regional revenues.

Meanwhile, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi emphasized that a permanent and immediate end to hostilities had been declared across multiple fronts, including Lebanon.

Asian equities rallied sharply as renewed geopolitical optimism improved risk sentiment across global markets. Investors moved away from the U.S. dollar, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, in search of higher-yielding opportunities, providing additional support for USD-denominated gold prices.

Gold also benefited from declining oil prices following the agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Lower energy prices helped ease inflation concerns and reduced expectations for additional interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

A softer outlook for monetary tightening generally favors non-yielding assets such as gold, enhancing the metal’s appeal among investors.

Nevertheless, questions remain regarding the sustainability of gold’s recovery. Several key details of the peace agreement have yet to be clarified, particularly those related to the reopening and long-term security of the Strait of Hormuz.

In addition, any renewed military escalation involving Israel and Lebanon could threaten the fragile peace framework. Investors may also choose to reduce recently established long positions ahead of the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated two-day policy meeting, which begins on Tuesday under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

With technical indicators still pointing to a bearish short-term trend, gold remains vulnerable to renewed downside pressure despite the latest recovery. 

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Gold Holds Firm

Gold Price Holds Above $4,200 as Bearish Bias Persists Amid US-Iran Risks

Gold prices recovered from modest intraday losses and traded near flat during the first half of the European session, although the precious metal remained below its daily peak. Despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding a potential US-Iran peace agreement, improving market sentiment failed to provide sustained support for the US Dollar. This development helped limit downside pressure on gold and offered short-term support to the commodity.

From a technical perspective, gold continues to maintain a bearish near-term outlook while trading below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Furthermore, Friday’s rejection near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from April’s monthly swing high suggests that the recent rebound may still be largely driven by short-covering activity rather than a genuine trend reversal.

Technical indicators continue to favor sellers. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory, with the MACD line trading below its signal line and the histogram staying below zero. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in the mid-30s, indicating that bearish momentum remains intact despite the recent recovery from multi-month lows.

On the upside, immediate resistance is located near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level around $4,229, followed by the 38.2% retracement zone near $4,355. Stronger resistance is seen around the 200-day SMA at $4,450 and the nearby 50% retracement level at $4,456. A break above these levels could open the door toward the 61.8% retracement at $4,558 and the 78.6% retracement near $4,703, potentially paving the way for a retest of the cycle high around $4,887.

On the downside, key support remains at the recent swing low near $4,026. A decisive break below this level could signal the beginning of a deeper corrective decline for XAU/USD.

US-Iran Uncertainty and Fed Expectations Weigh on Gold

Mixed signals surrounding a possible US-Iran peace agreement, combined with growing expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve, continue to support the US Dollar and may limit gains for the non-yielding yellow metal.

US President Donald Trump stated on Thursday that an agreement with Iran had been reached and that a final document could be signed as early as this weekend. However, optimism quickly faded after Iranian officials denied that any final decision had been made regarding the proposed deal.

Adding to the uncertainty, reports indicated that Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has not yet approved the US-backed peace proposal. Iran’s Foreign Ministry also reportedly stated that several key issues, including access through the Strait of Hormuz and the release of frozen assets, remain unresolved.

Geopolitical tensions remain elevated after Iranian forces reportedly stopped a tanker transiting the strategic waterway without prior coordination. Meanwhile, reports suggested that US forces intercepted and destroyed two Iranian one-way attack drones near the Strait of Hormuz.

These developments have kept geopolitical risk premiums in place and contributed to a moderate rebound in crude oil prices, raising concerns about renewed inflationary pressures. This comes as recent US economic data points to a resurgence in inflation, strengthening the case for higher interest rates for a longer period.

Both the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) released this week signaled renewed inflationary pressures, reinforcing market expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise borrowing costs again later this year. The outlook has provided additional support for the Greenback while weighing on gold prices.

Nevertheless, traders appear reluctant to place aggressive bearish bets on XAU/USD ahead of further developments in the Middle East. Even so, gold remains on track to post a significant loss for a second consecutive week as investors balance geopolitical risks against expectations of tighter US monetary policy.

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Gold Prices Rise

Gold Prices Edge Higher as Oil Retreats and Inflation Concerns Ease Amid U.S.-Iran Peace Talks

Gold prices moved slightly higher on Thursday as crude oil prices softened amid reports of ongoing U.S.-Iran peace negotiations, helping ease concerns over energy-driven inflation and the prospect of further central bank interest rate hikes.

Investors continue to monitor geopolitical developments in the Middle East, with signs of diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran reducing demand for traditional safe-haven assets.

As of 16:29 WIB, spot gold rose 0.2% to $4,079.70 per troy ounce, recovering from its lowest level in more than six months reached earlier in the session. Meanwhile, gold futures declined 0.8% to $4,100.65 per troy ounce.

U.S.-Iran Negotiations Offer Hope for De-escalation

According to reports, the United States and Iran continued discussions on a potential peace agreement overnight despite both sides exchanging retaliatory airstrikes for a second consecutive day.

Sources cited by Reuters indicated that Washington and Tehran are negotiating a preliminary framework that could include mechanisms to release frozen Iranian assets. Efforts to secure a diplomatic breakthrough have reportedly intensified in recent days.

However, uncertainty remains elevated. U.S. President Donald Trump warned that additional actions could be taken against Iran if the country fails to accept a peace agreement in the near future.

Military Escalation Continues Despite Diplomatic Efforts

The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed that American forces struck several military targets in Iran late Wednesday and early Thursday, describing the operation as an act of self-defense following the downing of a U.S. helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week.

Iran responded with attacks targeting several U.S. and allied military installations across the Gulf region. Unconfirmed media reports suggested explosions were heard in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan. Tehran also claimed to have blocked all maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, although CENTCOM rejected those claims.

The latest escalation follows two weeks of military exchanges between the United States and Iran amid broader regional tensions. Iran has also been involved in ongoing hostilities with Israel related to Israel's operations against Iran-backed Hezbollah forces in Lebanon.

Oil Prices Pull Back, Reducing Inflation Fears

Global benchmark Brent crude futures edged lower on Thursday, giving back part of the gains recorded after recent military strikes. Although oil prices remain significantly above pre-conflict levels, they have retreated from recent highs.

Rising crude oil costs have fueled concerns that inflation could accelerate, potentially prompting major central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB), to maintain a tighter monetary policy stance.

Higher interest rates are generally viewed as negative for gold because the precious metal does not generate interest income.

Markets Await Key U.S. Inflation Data

Economic data released on Wednesday showed U.S. consumer prices rising at the fastest pace in years, largely driven by higher gasoline prices. Investors are now awaiting U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data for additional clues about inflation trends.

Market expectations currently suggest that the Federal Reserve could raise borrowing costs before the end of 2026, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the ECB is widely expected to deliver another interest rate increase at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting as officials continue efforts to curb inflation across the Eurozone.

Stronger U.S. Dollar Limits Gold's Upside

The U.S. dollar has strengthened since the conflict intensified in late February, making gold more expensive for overseas buyers and limiting potential gains in bullion prices.

On Thursday, the U.S. Dollar Index was last trading 0.1% higher at 100.09, adding further pressure on precious metals markets.

Gold Outlook

Gold prices remain caught between competing forces. While geopolitical tensions continue to support safe-haven demand, easing oil prices, a stronger U.S. dollar, and expectations of higher interest rates may limit further upside in the near term. Investors will closely monitor developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations and upcoming inflation data for fresh direction.

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