Gold Holds Weakness

Gold Holds Near $4,050 as US-Iran Conflict Fuels Inflation Concerns

Gold prices trimmed part of their daily losses but remained under pressure, trading near $4,070 during the Asian session on Monday. The precious metal struggled to gain momentum after renewed military clashes between the United States and Iran in the strategic Strait of Hormuz pushed crude oil prices higher, reigniting global inflation concerns and weighing on investor sentiment.

Gold Technical Analysis: Bearish Momentum Remains Intact

On the daily chart, XAU/USD was trading at $4,068.30, extending its decline well below key short- and medium-term moving averages, reinforcing the prevailing bearish outlook.

Spot gold continues to trade below the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,240.86, the 50-day SMA at $4,453.85, and the 200-day SMA at $4,479.26. Meanwhile, the longer-term 100-day SMA remains significantly higher at $4,674.59, highlighting a strong resistance zone that bulls must overcome before any meaningful recovery can develop.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) is hovering around 36, indicating persistent bearish momentum while remaining above oversold territory.

Adding to the negative outlook, gold confirmed a Death Cross after the 50-day SMA closed below the 200-day SMA at Friday's weekly close, a technical signal often associated with further downside risk.

Immediate resistance is located around the 21-day SMA at $4,240.86, followed by stronger barriers at the 50-day SMA ($4,453.85) and the 200-day SMA ($4,479.26). A sustained breakout above these technical levels could pave the way toward the 100-day SMA near $4,674.59. Until then, gold remains vulnerable to additional selling pressure, with traders closely monitoring fresh support below the current $4,068.30 area.

Geopolitical Tensions and Fed Expectations Drive Gold Market

Investors remain highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East, continuously reassessing regional stability and its broader impact on global risk sentiment.

However, gold prices recovered part of their intraday losses after Washington and Tehran agreed to a temporary ceasefire ahead of crucial peace negotiations scheduled to take place in Doha on Tuesday. The diplomatic breakthrough eased geopolitical tensions that had recently shaken global financial markets.

The ceasefire followed several days of escalating military exchanges after an unidentified projectile struck a cargo vessel on Thursday. Both nations accused each other of violating the temporary truce originally established on June 17, prompting renewed uncertainty before agreeing to resume diplomatic talks in Qatar.

Beyond geopolitical developments, non-yielding assets such as gold continue to face headwinds from persistent expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish monetary policy stance. Higher interest rates typically reduce the appeal of gold, as investors shift toward interest-bearing assets.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in a 59.7% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike as early as September 2026.

Market Focus Turns to US Jobs Report

Attention is now shifting to this week's critical U.S. labor market data, culminating in Thursday's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. The employment figures are expected to provide fresh clues regarding the Federal Reserve's future interest-rate path.

Wall Street economists forecast that the U.S. economy added approximately 114,000 jobs in June, while the national unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%.

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Gold Extends Losses

Gold Heads for Fourth Straight Weekly Loss as Strong US Dollar, Fed Rate Hike Bets Weigh

Gold prices fell on Friday and were on track for a fourth consecutive weekly decline, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again later this year.

Spot gold slipped 0.7% to US$3,998.74 per ounce as of 03:52 WIB, while U.S. gold futures declined 0.8% to US$4,015.90 per ounce.

Bullion is set to record a weekly loss of nearly 4% and has dropped approximately 12% so far this month, reflecting persistent selling pressure as investors adjust their expectations for U.S. monetary policy.

Among other precious metals, silver fell 2.5% to US$56.44 per ounce, putting it on course for a weekly decline of around 13%. Platinum also dropped 1.8% to US$1,573.60 per ounce and is heading for its seventh consecutive weekly loss.

The U.S. dollar remained close to its highest level in 13 months and was on track for a second straight weekly gain, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies and reducing global demand.

The greenback continued to draw support from expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to tighten monetary policy further as inflation remains elevated.

Data released on Thursday showed that the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index—the Fed's preferred inflation gauge—rose 4.1% year-over-year in May, marking its highest reading in more than three years and the first time it has exceeded 4% since 2023.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, financial markets are now pricing in a 63% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September. Higher interest rates typically reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.

XAU/USD Outlook

Despite the broader weakness, gold limited its losses as investors continued to monitor developments in the Middle East after a cargo ship reported an attack near the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting ongoing geopolitical risks despite an initial peace agreement between the United States and Iran.

The incident briefly boosted safe-haven demand for gold. However, the renewed geopolitical concerns were not enough to offset pressure from the stronger U.S. dollar and rising expectations of additional Federal Reserve rate hikes, leaving the precious metal on track for another weekly decline.

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Gold Under Pressure

Gold Nears Seven-Month Low as Stronger U.S. Dollar and Hawkish Fed Pressure Prices

Gold prices extended their decline on Thursday, hovering near their lowest level in more than seven months, as a stronger U.S. dollar and growing expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening continued to weigh on demand for the non-yielding precious metal.

Spot gold fell 0.2% to $3,992.60 per ounce as of 16:56 WIB, while U.S. Gold Futures remained largely unchanged at $4,008.22 per ounce.

The precious metal dropped below the key $4,000-per-ounce level on Wednesday for the first time since November 2025. Gold has now lost nearly 30% of its value from the all-time high of $5,595.46 per ounce recorded in January.

Stronger Dollar and Fed Rate Hike Expectations Weigh on Gold

Gold’s latest weakness comes as the U.S. dollar remains near a 13-month high after posting gains for six consecutive trading sessions. The rally has been fueled by increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates again later this year.

According to CME FedWatch data, markets are currently pricing in roughly a one-third probability of a rate hike in July and a 66% chance of additional monetary tightening in September.

A stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated gold more expensive for overseas buyers, while higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding bullion, which does not generate interest income.

“Gold’s weakness highlights the extent to which markets have shifted their focus away from safe-haven demand and toward the implications of higher interest rates and tighter financial conditions,” ING analysts said in a recent report.

Easing Geopolitical Risks Reduce Safe-Haven Demand

The recent decline also reflects a broader reassessment of safe-haven demand. Reduced geopolitical concerns following progress in U.S.-Iran peace efforts, combined with lower oil prices, have diminished some of the risk premium that supported gold earlier this year.

Market participants are now awaiting the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, for further clues regarding the future path of monetary policy.

Silver, Platinum, and Copper Market Update

Among other precious metals, silver edged up 0.1% to $57.50 per ounce after plunging more than 6% in the previous session.

“Although the silver market is expected to remain in deficit, some of its strongest demand drivers are beginning to lose momentum,” ING analysts added.

Meanwhile, platinum slipped 0.3% to $1,581.60 per ounce after tumbling 4.5% on Wednesday.

In the base metals market, benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange rose 1.7% to $13,255.95 per metric ton, while U.S. copper futures gained 1.6% to $6.04 per pound.

XAU/USD Outlook

Gold traders remain focused on upcoming U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve policy signals. Any indication of persistent inflationary pressures could strengthen expectations for further interest rate hikes, potentially keeping downward pressure on XAU/USD in the near term.

However, renewed geopolitical tensions, weaker economic data, or a shift toward a more dovish Fed stance could provide support for gold prices and revive safe-haven demand.

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Gold Extends Losses

Gold Prices Fall to Two-Week Low as Stronger US Dollar Weighs on Market Sentiment

Gold prices extended their decline on Wednesday, falling to their lowest level in nearly two weeks and testing the key psychological support level of $4,000 per troy ounce. The precious metal came under pressure as the US dollar strengthened and growing expectations of further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes reduced the appeal of non-yielding assets.

Spot gold dropped 1.1% to $4,067.72 per ounce as of 12:42 WIB, after briefly touching an intraday low of $4,050.60 earlier in the session.

Meanwhile, US gold futures declined 1.6% to $4,083.60 per ounce.

Bullion has now posted losses in five of the last six trading sessions and recently recorded its third consecutive weekly decline, highlighting increasing bearish momentum in the precious metals market.

Stronger Dollar and Hawkish Fed Outlook Pressure Gold

The US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to a 13-month high on Wednesday as investors increased bets that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates as early as July, followed by another hike later this year.

A stronger US dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, while higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets such as gold.

Market participants significantly raised expectations for additional monetary tightening following last week's Federal Reserve policy meeting and a series of hawkish comments from Fed officials.

Current market pricing indicates approximately a 70% probability of a rate hike in September, with another increase fully anticipated by December.

“Strength in the US dollar and expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer are outweighing safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical risks,” analysts at ING said in a market note.

Easing Middle East Supply Concerns Add to Downside Pressure

Gold also faced additional headwinds as concerns over potential energy supply disruptions in the Middle East continued to ease.

Investors are closely monitoring ongoing diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran after both sides signaled progress toward implementing a broader peace framework aimed at normalizing energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

However, uncertainty remains over key issues, including nuclear inspections and access to frozen Iranian assets.

“While geopolitical risks remain elevated, gold is likely to continue trading in line with Federal Reserve expectations, leaving prices vulnerable to higher Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar in the near term,” ING analysts added.

Markets Await Key US PCE Inflation Data

Investors are now focusing on the upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report scheduled for release on Thursday, which could provide fresh clues regarding the Federal Reserve’s future policy direction.

Other Precious Metals and Copper Performance

Among other precious metals, silver rebounded 0.8% to $61.12 per ounce after plunging more than 5% in the previous session.

Platinum slipped 1.2% to $1,634.81 per ounce.

In the base metals market, benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) edged down 0.3% to $13,343.88 per metric ton, while US copper futures declined 0.6% to $6.10 per pound.

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Gold Eyes $4100

Gold Holds Above $4,100, but for How Long?

Gold prices remained under pressure on Tuesday morning after facing another rejection near the $4,200 level. The US Dollar continued to trade at its highest level in more than a year, supported by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish outlook and lingering skepticism over progress in US-Iran peace negotiations. As a result, gold appears vulnerable to further losses, with sellers targeting the key $4,100 support zone.

At the time of writing, XAU/USD was trading around $4,136.00, extending its bearish trend as spot prices remained below all major Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). The 21-day SMA at $4,328.42 serves as the first significant resistance level, while the 200-day and 50-day SMAs at $4,471.81 and $4,515.31 respectively reinforce the broader negative outlook.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) stands at 35.76, slightly above oversold territory. This suggests that bearish momentum remains intact, although the pace of selling pressure has begun to ease rather than accelerate.

On the upside, immediate resistance is located near the 21-day SMA at $4,328. A daily close above this level would help reduce near-term downside pressure and potentially pave the way toward the 200-day SMA around $4,472. A stronger bullish recovery would require gold to reclaim the 50-day SMA near $4,515, while the 100-day SMA around $4,709 remains a major long-term trend barrier.

With no significant SMA-based support levels below current prices, gold remains exposed to additional downside risks as long as it continues trading beneath these layered resistance zones.

Gold Sellers Remain Active Near $4,200

Gold bears continue to dominate market sentiment around the $4,200 area despite signs of progress in diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran.

According to Reuters, US Vice President JD Vance stated that discussions with Iranian officials in Switzerland had established a solid foundation for a future peace agreement. However, Iran denied that negotiations regarding its nuclear program had begun, raising doubts about the durability of any diplomatic breakthrough.

At the same time, the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has increased investor caution. Market participants remain skeptical that peace negotiations will produce a lasting resolution, especially amid the possibility of renewed tensions and strong rhetoric from US President Donald Trump.

As uncertainty persists, investors have continued to seek safety in the US Dollar, pushing the Greenback to its strongest level in more than a year against a basket of major global currencies.

The US Dollar has also benefited from growing expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates later this year. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in an 88% probability of a rate hike in December, up sharply from 61% before last week's Federal Reserve meeting.

The combination of a stronger US Dollar and increasingly hawkish Fed expectations continues to weigh heavily on non-yielding assets such as gold, increasing the likelihood of further downside pressure.

US PMI Data in Focus

Investors are now turning their attention to the release of preliminary US S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI data later today. Stronger-than-expected economic figures could reinforce expectations for tighter monetary policy and trigger another wave of selling in the gold market.

The Manufacturing PMI is expected to ease slightly to 54.7 in June from 55.1 in May, while the Services PMI is forecast to improve to 51.0 from 50.7 during the same period.

In addition to economic data, comments from Federal Reserve officials and developments surrounding US-Iran negotiations are expected to remain key drivers of market sentiment and gold price movements in the near term.

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Gold Prices Rebound

Gold Rebounds as US-Iran Talks Show Progress, Fed Policy Outlook Remains in Focus

Gold prices advanced on Monday as investors closely monitored developments in US-Iran negotiations in Switzerland while assessing the outlook for US monetary policy following the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance last week.

Spot gold rose 1.1% to $4,205.05 per ounce as of 13:48 WIB, while US Gold Futures gained 1.2% to $4,223.42 per ounce.

The precious metal had declined 1.4% last week and recently recorded three consecutive losing sessions.

Gold found support after Iranian officials reported significant progress in discussions with the United States, easing concerns over prolonged disruptions to global energy supplies and putting pressure on crude oil prices.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi stated that “major progress” had been achieved during the quadrilateral talks held in Switzerland. Meanwhile, mediators from Qatar and Pakistan indicated that negotiators had agreed on a roadmap toward a broader agreement.

Technical discussions are expected to continue throughout the week.

Lower oil prices helped ease inflation concerns, providing additional support for bullion by reducing expectations that energy-driven price pressures could force the Federal Reserve into a more aggressive tightening cycle.

Brent crude oil pared earlier gains on Monday following signs of diplomatic progress, although tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved.

However, gold's upside remains limited by expectations that US interest rates could stay elevated for longer.

Markets continue to digest the outcome of last week's Federal Reserve meeting, where policymakers maintained a hawkish bias and left the door open for additional rate hikes amid persistent inflation risks.

XAU/USD Analysis

Despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties that should continue to provide underlying support for gold, analysts believe a higher-for-longer US interest rate environment may cap near-term gains.

“While geopolitical risks should continue to offer fundamental support, a higher-for-longer US rate environment could limit upside potential in the near term,” ING analysts said in a research note.

The US Dollar Index remained firm near the 13-month high reached last week, further weighing on gold's momentum.

Investors are now awaiting the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index later this week for fresh clues regarding the Federal Reserve's next policy moves.

Among other precious metals, silver climbed 2.8% to $66.70 per ounce, while platinum gained 1.6% to $1,694.60 per ounce.

Meanwhile, benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange edged up 0.8% to $13,700.33 per ton, while US copper futures remained flat at $6.35 per pound.

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