EMAS Profit Potential

EMAS Stock Correction Opens Opportunity as Company Eyes Profit Turnaround in 2026

Investment opportunities in gold mining stocks are emerging again after shares of PT Merdeka Gold Resources Tbk (EMAS) experienced a sharp correction amid a broad decline in the Indonesian stock market on Wednesday (March 4, 2026).

Despite the short-term pressure, analysts believe the gold mining company still holds strong long-term prospects as it has officially entered the commercial gold production phase.

On Wednesday’s trading session, EMAS shares closed at IDR 8,100, falling 350 points or 4.14% in a single day. During intraday trading, the stock even slipped below the IDR 8,000 level.

The decline in EMAS shares came alongside a broader market downturn. The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) also dropped sharply, closing at 7,577.06, down 362.70 points or 4.57% on the same day.

Analysts See EMAS Correction as Accumulation Opportunity

Several market analysts view the recent correction in EMAS shares as a potential buying opportunity for investors looking to accumulate the stock at lower levels.

The optimism is supported by the start of production and commercialization at the Pani Gold Mine, which is expected to become the company’s key growth driver.

After completing its first gold pour on February 14, 2026, EMAS also conducted its first shipment of 44.04 kilograms of dore gold for refining at the facility of PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM).

EMAS President Director Boyke Poerbaya Abidin stated that the refining process is a crucial step before the company enters its full commercial phase.

According to him, the process ensures the quality of gold produced from the Pani Gold Mine before it is marketed.

The dore shipment also highlights the operational readiness of one of EMAS’ most strategic gold projects.

Company Accelerates Processing Facility Development

As a subsidiary of PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk (MDKA), EMAS is currently focused on ensuring disciplined production in line with its targets this year.

The company is also accelerating the construction of its Carbon-in-Leach (CIL) processing facility, which is expected to significantly increase production capacity.

“Additionally, the company is accelerating the development of the Carbon-in-Leach (CIL) facility to achieve higher and more optimal production,” Boyke said in an official statement.

Pani Gold Mine Production Target

EMAS has set a production target of 110,000 to 115,000 ounces of gold in 2026 from the Pani Gold Mine.

As part of its medium-term strategy, the company is accelerating the development of the CIL facility to complement the existing heap leach processing method.

The integration of both processing methods is projected to boost gold production to approximately 500,000 ounces per year at optimal long-term capacity.

The Pani Gold Mine itself holds more than 7 million ounces of gold resources, with a competitive production cost profile.

Analysts Expect EMAS to Return to Profit in 2026

Head of Research at Korea Investment & Sekuritas Indonesia (KISI), Muhammad Wafi, said the company’s first gold shipment marks an important transition toward full commercial production.

If production and sales proceed smoothly, EMAS could turn losses into profits in 2026.

Wafi also expects EMAS to deliver a growing contribution to its parent company, MDKA.

“The Pani Mine is projected to become one of the largest primary gold assets in the Asia-Pacific region,” Wafi said.

He added that the company’s main strategy is to accelerate the integration of gold processing facilities, particularly the CIL facility, which is targeted to begin operations in 2028.

Key Risks Investors Should Watch

Despite its promising outlook, several risks could still impact EMAS’ performance this year.

These include global gold price volatility, potential lower-than-expected recovery rates, and possible operational disruptions caused by extreme weather conditions.

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Gold Holds Gains

 

Gold Holds Above $5,150 in Daily Trading; Upside May Be Limited Amid Bullish USD

Gold prices maintained moderate intraday gains during Wednesday’s Asian session, hovering slightly above the $5,150 level and rising around 1.30% on the day. Investors remain concerned about the prolonged Middle East conflict and its broader impact on the global economy, particularly amid an already fragile macroeconomic backdrop.

📊 Technical Analysis: Short-Term Bias Remains Bullish

From a technical perspective, the short-term outlook for gold remains slightly bullish. Prices continue to hold above the 21-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), which are trending higher and positioned above the longer-term 100-day and 200-day SMAs, reinforcing the prevailing uptrend.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently near 55, staying above the neutral midpoint. This signals positive momentum without entering overbought territory after cooling from previous extremes.

Gold has also reclaimed the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $5,141.05, measured from the swing low of $4,401.99 to the record high of $5,597.89. This recovery suggests buyers are defending the current pullback zone within the broader bullish structure.

🔎 Key Support and Resistance Levels

• Immediate Support: $5,141.05 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement)

• Secondary Support: $5,067 (21-day SMA) and $4,999.94 (50% Fibonacci level)

• Deeper Support: $4,858.82 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement + rising 50-day SMA)

On the upside:

• Near-Term Resistance: $5,260 (recent swing high)

• Next Resistance: $5,340 area (near 78.6% Fibonacci at $5,341.96)

• Major Target: $5,600 (record high zone)

A daily close above $5,340 could pave the way for a renewed push toward the $5,600 all-time high, sustaining the dominant bullish trajectory.

🌍 Geopolitical Tensions Support Safe-Haven Demand

Gold continues to attract dip buyers, holding near a 1.50% gain so far this week. The overall bullish trend in the traditional safe-haven asset remains intact as global uncertainty intensifies.

Ongoing military tensions involving the United States, Israel, and Iran have fueled risk aversion across financial markets. According to reports from Reuters, Iranian drones and missiles have targeted oil refineries in the Gulf region, as well as US embassies in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

Additionally, concerns about potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have heightened fears of an energy shock, contributing to inflation risks and complicating monetary policy expectations.

💵 USD Strength and Fed Expectations Limit Upside

Despite safe-haven demand, gold’s upside appears somewhat capped by renewed strength in the US Dollar (USD). Markets are reassessing expectations for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as rising oil prices could fuel inflation and delay monetary easing.

Earlier this week, gold briefly entered a “sell-everything” mode as investors liquidated positions to cover losses in global equities. However, a pause in the USD rally and consolidation in oil prices have supported the recent rebound in bullion.

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📅 Key US Data to Watch

Gold’s next directional move may depend on upcoming US economic data, particularly:

• ADP Employment Change

• ISM Services PMI

Disappointing results could revive dovish expectations for the Federal Reserve and trigger a correction in the USD, potentially extending gold’s recovery.

On the other hand, further escalation in the Iran conflict could reignite global risk aversion, strengthening gold’s safe-haven appeal and supporting a move toward fresh record highs.

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Gold Rises Again

 

Gold Prices Rise Amid Prolonged Middle East Conflict Fears

Gold prices strengthened on Monday (March 2, 2026) as escalating tensions in the Middle East fueled safe-haven demand following military strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran.

According to a report from Reuters, spot gold climbed 0.4% to US$5,297.31 per ounce at 6:31 p.m. local time. The precious metal had earlier surged more than 2% in a single session before trimming gains due to profit-taking. Gold remains near its all-time high of US$5,594.82, recorded on January 29.

Meanwhile, U.S. gold futures settled 1.2% higher at US$5,311.60 per ounce. The U.S. dollar index rose around 1%, making dollar-denominated gold more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Geopolitical Uncertainty Supports Gold Rally

Market uncertainty continues to dominate sentiment as investors assess the potential for a prolonged regional conflict. David Meger, Director of Metals Trading at High Ridge Futures, stated that the lack of clarity surrounding future military developments could continue to underpin gold prices in the coming weeks.

Tensions intensified after the U.S.-Israel air campaign against Iran expanded. Reports indicate that Israel launched strikes on Lebanon in response to Hezbollah attacks, while Tehran continued missile and drone operations targeting Gulf nations. Former U.S. President Donald Trump warned of additional large-scale strikes, although he did not provide details on timing or targets.

The conflict has also disrupted energy markets. Oil and gas prices surged after several production facilities in the Middle East were shut down and shipping routes through the strategic Strait of Hormuz faced disruptions.

Central Banks and Investment Demand Drive Bullion Higher

Analysts at SP Angel noted that increasing geopolitical fragmentation has prompted BRIC central banks to reduce exposure to U.S. dollar-based assets and increase gold holdings. This trend is expected to persist throughout the year.

Similarly, BNP Paribas projects that physical gold investment demand will remain a key driver of the global gold market in 2026.

Year-to-date, gold prices have surged nearly 23%, extending last year’s impressive 64% rally in 2025. The strong performance has been fueled by aggressive central bank buying, substantial inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and expectations of a more accommodative U.S. monetary policy stance.

Limited Physical Supply and Key U.S. Economic Data in Focus

On the physical supply side, gold flows in and out of Dubai’s bullion trading hub are expected to remain limited in the coming days. Flight cancellations caused by labor strikes have disrupted logistics, according to industry sources.

Investors are also closely watching key U.S. economic data releases this week, including the ADP employment report, weekly jobless claims, and non-farm payrolls data, which could influence Federal Reserve policy expectations and gold price direction.

Other Precious Metals Weaken

While gold advanced, other precious metals posted losses:

• Spot silver fell sharply by 5.7% to US$88.46 per ounce, retreating from its highest level since January 30.

• Spot platinum declined 2.7% to US$2,300.50 per ounce.

• Palladium slipped 0.9% to US$1,770.66 per ounce.

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Gold War Surge

  

Gold Price Surges 2% as US-Israel Conflict with Iran Escalates

Gold prices jumped more than 2% in Asian trading on Monday as investors rushed into safe-haven assets following a major military escalation involving the United States and Israel against Iran.

Spot gold climbed 2.1% to $5,387.55 per ounce as of 06:56 WIB, marking its highest level since late January. Meanwhile, U.S. gold futures advanced 2.8% to $5,394.91 per ounce, reflecting strong bullish momentum in the precious metals market.

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Middle East Tensions Drive Safe-Haven Demand

Financial markets reacted sharply to the unprecedented escalation in the Middle East. Reports of a large-scale strike targeting Iran, including the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, intensified fears of a broader regional conflict.

Investors are increasingly concerned about potential disruptions to global oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz — a critical energy corridor. The rising geopolitical risk has triggered a classic risk-off move across global markets.

Israeli forces reportedly launched additional waves of strikes in Tehran on Sunday, targeting command centers and air defense infrastructure. Iran responded with missile attacks directed toward Israeli territory and U.S. military bases in the Gulf region.

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Gold Strengthens as Equities Fall, Oil Prices Spike

The geopolitical shock sent global equities lower while crude oil prices surged, reinforcing gold’s appeal as a store of value during times of uncertainty.

Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist at Pepperstone, highlighted key resistance levels to watch:

“Trying to gauge the extent of the move is clearly challenging, though I would flag $5,400/oz followed by the late-January record high of $5,595/oz as key upside levels.”

He added that recent developments strengthen the fundamental bullish case for gold, noting that safe-haven inflows, strong retail demand, and central bank buying continue to provide tailwinds.

Brown also sees potential for gold to test the $6,000 per ounce level by year-end if geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions remain supportive.

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Gold Up Nearly 25% Year-to-Date

Gold has rallied nearly 25% so far this year, supported by:

• Rising geopolitical risks

• Ongoing central bank purchases

• Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts

Among other precious metals, silver rose 1.3% to $95.15 per ounce, while platinum gained 0.3% to $2,396.11 per ounce.

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Merdeka Gold Shipment

  

Merdeka Gold Resources Begins First Gold Shipment to Antam Refinery

PT Merdeka Gold Resources Tbk (IDX: EMAS) has officially completed its first gold shipment to the refining facility of PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (Antam), marking a major milestone toward stable commercial production.

The milestone follows the company’s first gold pour on February 14, 2026. A total of 44.04 kilograms of dore gold was delivered for refining, signaling operational readiness and strengthening the transition phase toward full-scale commercial output.

First Shipment Signals Operational Readiness

The first dore shipment represents a critical step in EMAS’ production ramp-up strategy. Dore refining is the final stage in gold processing, where impurities such as silver and other metals are separated from gold through chemical or electrolysis methods. This process results in high-purity gold and silver products ready for market distribution.

President Director Boyke Poerbaya Abidin stated that the refining phase reflects the company’s dynamic progress toward commercial production while ensuring that output from the Pani Gold Mine meets strict quality standards.

The delivery of dore to Antam’s refining facility further underscores the operational readiness of the Pani project.

Focus on 2026 Production Target

As a subsidiary of PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk (MDKA), EMAS is focused on maintaining disciplined production aligned with its 2026 targets.

The company is targeting gold production from the Pani Gold Mine at 110,000–115,000 ounces in 2026. To support this objective, EMAS is accelerating the development of its Carbon-in-Leach (CIL) processing facility, which will complement existing heap leach operations.

The integration of heap leach and CIL technology is designed to gradually increase output toward a long-term production capacity of approximately 500,000 ounces of gold per year.

“Additionally, the company is expediting the development of the Carbon-in-Leach (CIL) facility to achieve higher and more optimal production levels,” Boyke said in an official statement on Thursday (February 26).

Long-Term Growth Strategy and ESG Commitment

With more than 7 million ounces in gold resources and a competitive cost profile, the Pani Gold Mine is projected to become a key contributor to the Merdeka Group’s production growth and cash flow in the coming years.

EMAS remains committed to responsible mining practices, implementing Good Mining Practices (GMP) principles alongside high Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) standards.

The first gold shipment not only marks a technical achievement but also strengthens investor confidence in EMAS’ long-term production roadmap and sustainable growth strategy.

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Gold Safe Haven

Gold Holds Gains as Safe-Haven Demand Persists Ahead of US-Iran Talks

Gold prices remain firm during Thursday’s European session, supported by ongoing safe-haven flows ahead of the highly anticipated US-Iran negotiations in Geneva. However, buyers appear cautious, waiting for a sustained move above the $5,200 psychological level before initiating fresh bullish positions.

Gold Technical Analysis: XAU/USD Maintains Bullish Bias

On the daily chart, XAU/USD is trading at $5,187.14, maintaining a mildly bullish short-term outlook. The precious metal continues to hold above the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $5,020 and the 50-day SMA around $4,775. Meanwhile, the upward-sloping 100-day and 200-day SMAs remain well below current price levels, reinforcing the broader uptrend.

Momentum indicators also favor the bulls. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 59, remaining in positive territory without entering overbought conditions. This suggests buyers retain control after digesting April’s extended rally.

Gold is also trading above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $5,141, measured from the $4,401–$5,598 rally. This indicates that the recent pullback remains within a healthy corrective phase.

Key Support Levels

• Immediate support: $5,141 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement)

• Secondary support: $5,000 (50% retracement and 21-day SMA cluster)

• Next downside pivot: $4,859 (38.2% retracement)

Key Resistance Levels

• Near-term resistance: $5,240 (recent local high)

• Breakout target: $5,342 (78.6% retracement level)

• Major resistance: $5,598 (previous peak)

A daily close above $5,240 could pave the way toward $5,342. A sustained move beyond that level would reaffirm the broader bullish trend and bring the $5,598 high back into focus.

US Dollar Under Pressure Amid Risk Optimism

The US Dollar (USD) remains under pressure against major currencies after strong earnings from chip giant NVIDIA Corporation boosted global risk appetite, reducing demand for traditional safe-haven assets like the Greenback.

Additional pressure stems from persistent uncertainty surrounding US trade policy and fresh selling in USD/JPY. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated Wednesday that tariffs on certain countries could rise to 15% or higher, up from the recently implemented 10%, though no further details were provided.

Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen continues to strengthen following comments from Kazuo Ueda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, who signaled that March and April meetings could be active for policy decisions. BoJ board member Hajime Takata also emphasized that the central bank should continue gradual rate hikes.

Geopolitical Risks Support Gold Ahead of US-Iran Talks

Gold is also benefiting from rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, as both nations meet in Geneva for the third round of negotiations.

Ahead of the talks, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that Iran’s refusal to discuss ballistic missile issues remains a significant obstacle.

At the same time, dovish expectations surrounding potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve continue to support non-yielding assets like gold, despite recent hawkish rhetoric from policymakers.

Market Outlook: Focus on US Data and Diplomatic Developments

Traders are closely monitoring geopolitical headlines and upcoming US Initial Jobless Claims data for fresh direction.

If the US-Iran negotiations conclude without a meaningful agreement on Iran’s nuclear program, markets could interpret the outcome negatively. A disappointing result may increase speculation about potential US military action, further boosting safe-haven demand and potentially driving gold prices higher.

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