Gold Under Pressure

 

Gold Holds Below $4,400 as USD Stabilizes After Softer CPI

Gold remains under pressure below the $4,400 level, extending its intraday pullback from the June 5 high near $4,450 reached earlier on Thursday. The precious metal traded lower during the European session as the initial market reaction to signs of easing US inflation quickly faded. Investors remain concerned that higher energy prices could reignite inflationary pressures, helping the US Dollar (USD) halt its decline.

From a technical perspective, the previous day's close above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the subsequent move above the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the April-June decline continue to support XAU/USD buyers. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator also remains elevated, reinforcing the constructive momentum.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 67.44, approaching overbought territory. This suggests that upside momentum remains intact but could be nearing stretched conditions.

A sustained move above the recent swing high could face initial resistance near the 200-day SMA at $4,502. This level is closely followed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $4,525.18. A decisive break above this area could open the door toward the next resistance levels at $4,683 and $4,885.

On the downside, a break below the 100-day SMA could expose gold to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $4,302, followed by the 23.6% retracement at $4,164.38. Further losses could bring the more significant structural floor near $3,941.47 into focus.

Softer US CPI Offers Limited Support for Gold

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Wednesday that headline US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased in line with market expectations, declining from 3.5% to 3.4% year-over-year in July.

Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.2% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year, matching consensus forecasts.

The softer inflation data followed weaker-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figures released last Friday. Together, the data could give the Federal Reserve greater flexibility to keep interest rates unchanged in September, offering some support to gold.

However, investors remain concerned about inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices amid the ongoing US-Iran standoff.

President Donald Trump again claimed that the US has "full control" over the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran has pledged to keep the strategically important waterway closed until its demands are met. Meanwhile, Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen have increased attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait, including targeting Saudi-linked shipping.

The heightened geopolitical risks have pushed up war-risk premiums and provided some support for crude oil prices.

Fed Rate Expectations and USD Limit Gold's Upside

Persistent energy-price risks continue to fuel concerns about inflation and strengthen the argument for a more cautious Federal Reserve policy stance.

According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, traders continue to price in nearly an 80% probability that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs in 2026. These expectations have helped the US Dollar rebound from its post-CPI swing low and exerted additional pressure on gold.

Nevertheless, gold would likely need a sustained break below $4,400 to strengthen the case for a deeper corrective decline.

US PPI and Jobless Claims in Focus

Traders are now turning their attention to Thursday's US economic calendar, which includes the Producer Price Index (PPI) and weekly Initial Jobless Claims.

The data, along with speeches from influential Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members, could influence USD demand and provide fresh direction for gold prices.

Meanwhile, further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis could continue to drive volatility across global financial markets, potentially creating short-term trading opportunities in XAU/USD.

Gold Price Outlook

Gold's broader technical structure remains constructive while prices hold above the 100-day SMA, but elevated RSI readings and renewed USD strength could limit near-term gains. Traders will closely monitor $4,400, the 100-day SMA, upcoming US inflation data, Fed rate expectations, and geopolitical developments for the next major directional move in gold.

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Gold Holds $4,400

Gold Holds Above $4,400 Near Two-Month High as Traders Await U.S. CPI

Gold (XAU/USD) maintained a bullish tone above the $4,400 level during the first half of the European session, remaining close to its highest level since June 5, reached on Tuesday. Traders are now awaiting the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for fresh clues about the Federal Reserve’s future policy path amid inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices. The data could influence the U.S. Dollar (USD) and provide a significant catalyst for the non-yielding precious metal.

Gold is trading around its 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), but remains capped below a strong resistance zone. The area begins with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the April–June decline and extends toward the 200-day SMA at $4,500.51. This suggests that buyers need a decisive breakout above this zone to regain control of the market.

On the downside, immediate support is provided by the 100-day SMA at $4,388.33. Additional support levels are located at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $4,298.48 and the 23.6% retracement at $4,161.40. A sustained break below these levels could expose the broader base around $3,939.81.

Oil Prices Rise as Hormuz Reopening Hopes Fade

Ahead of the key U.S. inflation data, oil prices remained firm near their highest level in one and a half weeks as expectations for an imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz faded.

Mojtaba Khamenei, an adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader, said the strategically important waterway would not reopen until the United States met Tehran’s demands. At the same time, Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen intensified attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb, particularly targeting ships linked to Saudi Arabia.

The latest developments have kept the geopolitical risk premium elevated and supported crude oil prices, adding to concerns about inflation and potentially complicating the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate outlook.

Analysts at Commerzbank highlighted that hopes for a new agreement between Iran and the United States and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have weakened following a hardening of diplomatic positions over the weekend.

The bank noted that Iran has established conditions for reopening the strait, including demands for reparations, while U.S. President Donald Trump has responded with additional demands for compensation for victims of the conflict.

According to Commerzbank, the escalation in mutual demands highlights the declining likelihood of a near-term agreement to restore full transit through the key shipping corridor. This, in turn, reinforces the risk premium currently embedded in energy markets.

Fed Rate Expectations Keep USD Supported

The geopolitical backdrop is offsetting signs of cooling in the U.S. labor market and strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates.

According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, traders are still pricing in a probability of more than 75% that the U.S. central bank will raise borrowing costs at least once by the end of the year.

This outlook continues to support elevated U.S. Treasury yields. Combined with persistent geopolitical uncertainty, higher yields could strengthen demand for the U.S. Dollar as a safe-haven asset and potentially limit further gains in gold.

Meanwhile, tensions in Asia added another layer of geopolitical risk. North Korea launched ballistic missiles early in the day, just days before a major joint military exercise involving South Korea and the United States.

Taiwan also criticized plans for naval exercises between China and an Indonesian warship off the island’s eastern coast.

The combination of geopolitical tensions, elevated Treasury yields, and USD strength could encourage caution among gold buyers and make it difficult for XAU/USD to extend the strong bullish momentum seen over the past week.

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Gold Pullback Deepens

Gold Price Pulls Back From June 5 High, Falls Below $4,400 as Inflation Fuels Fed Rate Hike Bets

Gold (XAU/USD) extended its daily corrective decline from its highest level since June 5, falling to a fresh intraday low near the $4,350 area during the first half of the European session on Tuesday.

Despite disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data released on Friday, traders continue to price in the possibility that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could raise borrowing costs by the end of the year amid renewed inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices. This outlook tends to weigh on non-yielding gold and encourages traders to lock in some profits, particularly following the precious metal's strong rally over the past week.

Gold Technical Outlook Remains Constructive

From a technical perspective, a daily breakout above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the April–June move suggests that buyers remain in control.

Momentum indicators also support the constructive technical structure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently just below overbought territory at 68.89, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram continues to expand in positive territory. This points to sustained upside momentum, although gold prices remain capped below the 200-day SMA at $4,498.

On the downside, a deeper pullback could expose the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $4,297, followed by the 23.6% retracement at $4,162. Further losses could bring the structural floor near $3,945 into focus.

On the upside, the $4,400 psychological level, followed by the daily swing high near $4,435, represents the first key resistance zone. A sustained break above this area could open the door toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $4,514.92.

Further gains could target the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $4,669, followed by the cycle high around $4,866.98.

Iran Tensions and Oil Prices Raise Inflation Concerns

Meanwhile, Iran has rejected the possibility of future negotiations with US President Donald Trump, saying it would wait until his term ends on January 20, 2029, before resuming talks. The development has dampened hopes for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Elsewhere, traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait remains disrupted amid an Iran-backed Houthi blockade targeting Saudi Arabia. The situation triggered a sharp increase in crude oil prices overnight and revived concerns about inflation, reinforcing expectations for a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance.

The prospect of tighter monetary policy continues to support higher US Treasury yields. Rising yields can strengthen the US Dollar (USD) while putting additional pressure on non-yielding gold.

US CPI and PPI Data in Focus

Traders are now awaiting the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, for further clues about the Federal Reserve's future policy path.

The upcoming inflation reports could play a crucial role in shaping short-term US Dollar dynamics and determining the next major move in gold prices.

At the same time, further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis could continue to drive volatility across global financial markets, potentially creating fresh trading opportunities around the XAU/USD pair.

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Gold Buyers Hesitate

 

Gold Buyers Hesitate Near $4,350 as Iran Risks and Fed Rate Hike Bets Support USD

Gold (XAU/USD) reversed an early decline on Monday and climbed toward the upper end of its daily range, trading near the $4,350 area ahead of the European session. However, the precious metal remained below the highest level since June 17, reached on Friday following the release of the latest US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

The US monthly employment report showed that the economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July, while the previous month's figure was sharply revised lower to a 20,000-job decline from an initial 57,000 increase. The weaker labor-market data reinforced signs of slowing economic activity and reduced the Federal Reserve's case for another interest-rate hike.

The softer employment figures weighed on the US Dollar (USD) and provided support for non-yielding gold. Nevertheless, persistent geopolitical risks and renewed expectations of tighter US monetary policy are limiting the precious metal's upside potential.

XAU/USD Technical Outlook Remains Cautious

The broader technical bias for XAU/USD remains relatively unchanged, with gold still trading below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $4,390 and the 200-day SMA around $4,496.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains positive, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds in bullish territory without reaching overbought conditions, currently around 64.

Gold has also reclaimed the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-June decline near $4,303.27. However, higher Fibonacci retracement levels and longer-term moving averages remain overhead, suggesting that the latest recovery could remain vulnerable to a reversal.

On the upside, immediate resistance is located around the 100-day SMA near $4,390, followed by the 50% Fibonacci retracement at approximately $4,414. A sustained daily close above these levels could pave the way toward the 200-day SMA around $4,496 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near $4,525.

Further gains could expose the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement near $4,683, followed by the latest cycle high around $4,884.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near $4,303, followed by the 23.6% level around $4,166. A deeper correction could bring the $3,944.21 support zone back into focus if sellers regain control.

Iran Tensions Support the US Dollar

The initial market reaction to weaker US employment data proved short-lived as uncertainty surrounding the Middle East crisis and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz provided some safe-haven demand for the US Dollar.

Iran reiterated its conditions for the full reopening of the strategically important waterway, including an end to the US naval blockade, the lifting of sanctions, and compensation for wartime damage.

Tehran has also rejected direct talks with Washington, citing alleged violations of the temporary ceasefire agreement reached in June. The ongoing uncertainty keeps geopolitical risk premiums elevated and supports the USD, potentially limiting further gains in gold.

Oil Prices and Fed Expectations Remain Key Drivers

Meanwhile, the US-Iran standoff has provided support for crude oil prices. Investors remain concerned that higher energy costs could reignite inflationary pressures and force major central banks to maintain a more hawkish monetary-policy stance.

The CME Group FedWatch Tool also indicates that traders continue to see a meaningful probability of the Federal Reserve raising borrowing costs later this year. Such expectations can keep US Treasury yields elevated, supporting the US Dollar and creating additional headwinds for gold.

However, traders may prefer to remain cautious ahead of the latest US inflation figures due later this week.

According to TD Securities, the risk of a rate hike remains present, although upcoming inflation data could significantly alter market expectations. The firm expects headline and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings of approximately 0.15% and 0.20% month-over-month, respectively, which could further reduce expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike.

TD Securities also noted that much of the recent increase in interest rates has been driven by expectations surrounding Fed policy. If rate-hike expectations fade, Treasury yields could move lower, potentially weakening the US Dollar and providing renewed support for gold.

Gold Price Outlook

Gold remains caught between opposing forces. A weaker US labor market and the possibility of lower interest rates are supportive for XAU/USD, while geopolitical uncertainty, higher oil prices, elevated Treasury yields, and lingering Fed rate-hike expectations are limiting the upside.

The upcoming US CPI report will therefore be a key catalyst for gold prices. A softer inflation reading could strengthen expectations for a more dovish Federal Reserve and help XAU/USD challenge the $4,390–$4,414 resistance zone. Conversely, stronger-than-expected inflation could boost the US Dollar and Treasury yields, potentially sending gold toward its key support levels.

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Gold Prices Advance

 

Gold Prices Rise as Middle East Risks Offset Strong Dollar Ahead of U.S. Payrolls

Gold prices extended their gains on Friday, building on the previous session's rally as investors weighed escalating geopolitical tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz against expectations for the Federal Reserve's next policy move. Market participants are also awaiting the highly anticipated U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for fresh direction.

As of 12:04 WIB, spot gold (XAU/USD) climbed 0.6% to $4,264.22 per ounce, while Gold Futures gained 0.6% to $4,323.07. Meanwhile, silver (XAG/USD) advanced 1.2% to $62.26 per ounce, and platinum (XPT/USD) rose 0.6% to $1,740.05.

Hormuz Tensions Keep Safe-Haven Demand Elevated

Geopolitical uncertainty remains the primary catalyst for gold after Iranian media reported that Tehran had targeted what it described as "hostile targets" in the Strait of Hormuz and was preparing legislation to ban U.S. and Israeli vessels from passing through the strategic shipping lane.

The latest developments followed earlier statements from Iranian officials indicating that an Oman-mediated agreement aimed at reopening the vital maritime corridor was nearing completion.

Separately, Yemen's Houthi movement claimed responsibility for a major attack on Saudi-backed government forces, raising concerns that the conflict could spread across the wider Middle East.

Despite the renewed escalation, U.S. President Donald Trump said he believes the conflict will end "fairly soon" and reiterated that the United States remains in control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Gold briefly surged above the $4,300 level on Thursday as optimism over a potential Hormuz agreement boosted safe-haven buying. However, the rally lost momentum after renewed geopolitical tensions reignited concerns that higher energy prices could fuel inflation, strengthening the case for a more hawkish Federal Reserve.

Markets are currently pricing in roughly a 60% probability of a September interest rate hike after the Financial Times reported that Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is prepared to raise borrowing costs if inflation remains elevated in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hovered around the 100 level, offering little additional direction for precious metals.

U.S. Payrolls, Fed Outlook, and China Demand in Focus

Investors are now turning their attention to Friday's U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is expected to be the next major catalyst shaping expectations for future Federal Reserve policy.

St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem warned that policymakers cannot ignore persistently high inflation while waiting for stronger productivity growth to eventually ease price pressures, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will remain cautious.

At the same time, robust investment demand from China continues to provide underlying support for gold prices. Chinese gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have recorded 14 consecutive sessions of net inflows, helping stabilize the precious metal despite broader macroeconomic uncertainty.

According to Tony Sycamore, Senior Market Analyst at IG, gold's recent breakout suggests the market has likely confirmed a price bottom near the late-June low of $3,942, after earlier price action briefly cast doubt on the bullish outlook.

Sycamore noted that maintaining support above this level would strengthen the case for an extended rally toward the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $4,489. A decisive breakout above that resistance could pave the way for a broader recovery toward the psychologically important $5,000 level.

He added that Friday's U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report will likely determine whether gold's latest breakout develops into a sustained bullish trend or loses momentum in the near term.

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Gold Hits High

Gold Climbs to One-Month High as Hormuz Reopening Hopes Ease Inflation Concerns

Gold prices (XAU/USD) surged to a one-month high on Wednesday as renewed optimism over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude oil prices lower, easing inflation concerns and improving sentiment toward the precious metal. At the time of writing, XAU/USD was trading near US$4,155, up nearly 1.90% on the day.

Gold Technical Outlook Remains Constructive

From a technical perspective, gold has reclaimed its position above the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at US$4,064, signaling a constructive short-term outlook. However, the rally remains capped just below the 50-day SMA at US$4,160, suggesting that the broader trend has yet to shift decisively into bullish territory.

Momentum indicators continue to strengthen. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed to around 55, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory, indicating that buyers are gradually regaining control despite facing near-term resistance.

On the upside, immediate resistance is located at the 50-day SMA near US$4,160, followed by the key horizontal barrier at US$4,200. A daily close above this zone could pave the way for a move toward the 100-day SMA around US$4,398.

On the downside, initial support stands at the 21-day SMA at US$4,064, followed by the major psychological level of US$4,000. A sustained break below this level would signal the start of a deeper corrective phase.

Hormuz Optimism Lifts Gold Despite Higher Rate Uncertainty

Gold extended its gains after renewed optimism emerged over a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a development expected to stabilize global energy supplies and reduce inflationary pressure.

U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington had held "very good discussions" with Iran during negotiations on Tuesday, adding that the Strait of Hormuz "will be opened very soon."

Meanwhile, Axios reported that the United States, Iran, and Oman were close to reaching a temporary agreement that could be announced as early as Wednesday. The proposed deal would establish a 60-day interim arrangement designed to restore commercial shipping through the strategically important waterway.

Analysts at ING noted that lower energy prices have eased some inflation concerns, creating a more supportive backdrop for gold. However, they emphasized that investors remain focused on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook following last week's meeting, leaving bullion caught between improving geopolitical sentiment and continued uncertainty over the path of U.S. interest rates.

Can Gold Extend Its Rally?

Despite improving market sentiment, the U.S. Dollar has weakened only modestly as traders await concrete evidence that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will fully normalize. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remained broadly flat near 99.85.

At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields have retreated from recent highs but continue to trade at elevated levels, reflecting lingering inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer. This remains a key factor limiting further upside in gold prices.

A deeper decline in crude oil prices—potentially reducing expectations of a more hawkish Fed—may be required for gold to extend its current rally.

Looking ahead, investors will closely monitor upcoming U.S. labor market data, including the ADP Employment Change report on Wednesday and the closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. These releases are expected to provide fresh clues about the Federal Reserve's next policy move and could determine the next major direction for gold prices.

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