Gold Breaks $4,200

Gold Surges Above $4,200 as Hormuz Deal Hopes Ease Fed Rate Hike Expectations

Gold prices rallied more than 2% on Wednesday, breaking above the key $4,200 per troy ounce level as growing optimism over a temporary agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz eased inflation concerns and prompted investors to scale back expectations for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.

As of 14:07 WIB, XAU/USD climbed 2.1% to $4,162.79 per ounce, while Gold Futures advanced 1.7% to $4,222.92. Other precious metals also posted strong gains, with XAG/USD rising 3.2% to $61.45 per ounce and XPT/USD adding 1.8% to $1,768.95.

Gold Gains Momentum as Hormuz Reopening Prospects Reduce Inflation Risks

Gold extended its rally for a third consecutive session after signs of progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz helped ease fears that prolonged disruptions to global energy supplies would keep inflation elevated.

Qatar announced that a proposal had been drafted to restore shipping through the strategic waterway. Meanwhile, Axios reported that Washington, Tehran, and Oman were close to reaching an agreement, with U.S. officials aiming for an announcement as early as Wednesday.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also stated that a deal to reopen the strait could be finalized as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday, boosting expectations that global energy markets could soon stabilize.

The prospect of lower oil prices encouraged traders to further reduce expectations for tighter Federal Reserve monetary policy. Markets are now fully pricing in only one U.S. interest rate hike before the end of the year, down from two hikes anticipated just a week earlier.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) edged lower, making dollar-denominated gold more attractive to overseas buyers and providing additional support for bullion prices.

Fed Policy Outlook and Chinese Gold Demand Remain Key Market Drivers

Despite Wednesday's strong rebound, gold remains more than 20% below the highs reached after the U.S.-Iran conflict escalated in late February, when soaring oil prices fueled inflation concerns and strengthened expectations that interest rates would remain higher for longer.

Although the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting last week, three policymakers dissented in favor of another rate increase.

Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said she remains "open-minded" about the policy outlook amid mixed signals on whether current monetary conditions are sufficiently restrictive.

Separately, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid argued that higher interest rates may still be necessary to restore price stability, warning investors not to assume that inflationary pressures caused by supply shocks will fade quickly.

Gold has also received renewed support from China in recent weeks. According to Bloomberg data, Chinese gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded inflows for 14 consecutive trading sessions through Monday—the longest streak since March—indicating that institutional investors have returned to the market after months of outflows.

The renewed buying has helped keep gold prices firmly above the psychologically important $4,000 per ounce level, reinforcing expectations that resilient Chinese demand will continue to provide a cushion for the precious metal market as investors await clearer signals on the Federal Reserve's next policy move.

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Gold Awaits Payrolls

Gold Price Holds Steady as US Jobs Data and Middle East Risks Keep Investors on Edge

Gold prices traded slightly higher on Tuesday as investors prepared for a busy week of U.S. labor market data while closely monitoring escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and their potential impact on inflation and the Federal Reserve's interest rate path.

As of 14:06 GMT, XAU/USD was up 0.1% at $4,058.99 per troy ounce, while Gold Futures climbed 0.6% to $4,114.50.

Other precious metals also advanced, with XAG/USD (silver) gaining 1.3% to $58.95 per ounce, and XPT/USD (platinum) rising 1.1% to $1,648.23.

Gold Trapped Between Geopolitical Risks and Fed Expectations

Gold remained confined within its recent trading range as investors balanced ongoing geopolitical uncertainty against concerns that rising energy prices could keep U.S. interest rates elevated for longer.

Brent crude oil surged more than 20% in July after renewed military clashes between the United States and Iran, while attacks on commercial oil tankers near Oman intensified concerns over regional energy supplies.

Higher oil prices have fueled fresh inflation fears, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain its restrictive monetary policy for an extended period.

Adding to market uncertainty, Iran stated on Monday that no negotiations with the United States were currently underway and that no diplomatic meetings had been scheduled, contradicting comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, who suggested talks could resume soon.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) traded near the 100 level with little movement, offering limited directional support for bullion prices.

Investors Await Key US Employment Reports

Market participants are now focused on a series of critical U.S. labor market releases this week, including the ADP private payrolls report and Friday's highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

The data are expected to provide fresh clues about whether the Federal Reserve will need to tighten monetary policy further before the end of the year.

Recent hawkish remarks from three voting Federal Reserve officials have strengthened expectations for another potential rate hike following last week's policy meeting. In addition, New York Fed President John Williams reiterated that policymakers remain prepared to raise interest rates again if inflation continues to exceed target levels.

Those comments have reinforced expectations that higher interest rates could remain in place for longer, limiting upside momentum for gold.

IG: Gold Needs Break Above $4,080 to Confirm Recovery

According to Tony Sycamore, Senior Market Analyst at IG, gold continues to trade sideways within the $4,000–$4,200 range that has contained prices for the past month.

Sycamore noted that bullion must first break above the key resistance level near $4,080, followed by the early July high around $4,202, to confirm that a broader recovery is underway.

A sustained move above those levels could pave the way for a rally toward the 200-day moving average, currently located near $4,490.

Until that breakout occurs, however, Sycamore believes the balance of risks still favors another test of the late-June low near $3,942, highlighting continued market caution despite gold's recent stability.

With geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns, and upcoming U.S. employment data all influencing sentiment, traders are expected to remain cautious as they assess the next major catalyst for gold prices and the broader precious metals market.

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Gold Holds Steady

Gold Price Trades Below $4,100 as Stronger US Dollar Offsets Dovish Fed Rate Expectations

Gold prices (XAU/USD) struggled to build on a modest bullish gap at the weekly open, remaining below the $4,100 mark ahead of the European session. A moderate rebound in the US Dollar (USD) from its lowest level since June 17 capped gains in the precious metal, although the dollar's upside appears limited by easing expectations for additional Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and renewed optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran peace agreement.

Gold Price Outlook Remains Bearish Despite Consolidation

From a technical perspective, XAU/USD continues to trade within a familiar consolidation range below its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Given the recent decline, this price action still reflects a bearish consolidation phase, suggesting that the path of least resistance remains to the downside unless buyers reclaim key resistance levels.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains in positive territory with a reading near 11.6, signaling tentative bullish momentum. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) stands at 47.1, indicating neutral market conditions and limited directional conviction.

As a result, any further upside is likely to face strong resistance around the $4,100 level.

Key Resistance and Support Levels to Watch

A sustained break above $4,100 would expose the upper boundary of the current trading range just below $4,200. If buyers successfully clear that barrier, gold could extend its recovery toward the 200-day SMA near $4,490.33, a technically significant level that would weaken the prevailing bearish outlook and signal the potential for a broader bullish reversal.

On the downside, immediate support is located around the recent swing low between $3,976 and $4,000, where buyers previously stepped into the market. A decisive break below this support zone would reinforce bearish momentum and increase the likelihood of a deeper decline in XAU/USD.

US-Iran Peace Hopes and OPEC+ Decision Ease Inflation Concerns

Market sentiment improved after US President Donald Trump announced that a planned military strike against Iran had been canceled, stating that Middle Eastern allies had reached the framework of an agreement regarding Tehran's nuclear program and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump also revealed that US and Iranian officials would resume negotiations on Monday afternoon, raising optimism that a diplomatic solution could bring an end to the five-month regional conflict.

Adding to the positive sentiment, OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to increase crude oil production in September, triggering a sharp decline in oil prices. Lower energy prices eased inflation concerns and reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve will need to maintain an aggressive tightening cycle.

The combination of softer inflation expectations and a weaker outlook for Fed rate hikes could limit further gains in the US dollar while providing underlying support for gold prices.

Traders Await US Economic Data and Nonfarm Payrolls

Despite the improving macro backdrop for gold, traders remain reluctant to establish fresh bearish positions against the US dollar as geopolitical risks in the Middle East continue to create uncertainty across global financial markets.

Investors are now closely monitoring incoming geopolitical headlines, which could drive volatility and influence demand for safe-haven assets such as the US dollar and gold.

Attention also turns to a busy week of high-impact US economic data. The schedule begins with the ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday, followed by several labor market indicators throughout the week.

The primary focus will be Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is expected to provide fresh insight into the strength of the US labor market and shape market expectations for the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision. Stronger-than-expected employment data could support the US dollar and weigh on gold, while weaker figures may reinforce expectations for a more dovish Fed and provide additional upside for the precious metal.

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Gold Below $4100

 

Gold Price Falls but Holds Above $4,000 as Iran Tensions Revive US Dollar Demand

Gold prices extended their decline on Friday after a two-day recovery, slipping well below the $4,100 mark as the US Dollar (USD) regained momentum. Escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran revived inflation concerns and reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could still raise interest rates later this year, boosting the greenback and weighing on the precious metal. Meanwhile, the technical outlook continues to favor sellers, signaling the potential for further downside.

On the daily chart, XAU/USD was trading at $4,082.83, maintaining a bearish short-term bias as the pair remains below its key moving averages. The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,185.76, the 100-day SMA at $4,426.31, and the 200-day SMA at $4,490.85 all remain above current prices, indicating that recent rebounds are still part of a broader corrective phase. Meanwhile, the 21-day SMA at $4,073.95 provides immediate dynamic support.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) stands near 48.3, slightly below the neutral 50 level, suggesting weakening momentum while reinforcing the view that gold remains trapped in a broader bearish consolidation.

On the upside, the first major resistance is located at the 50-day SMA near $4,185.76. A decisive daily close above this level would ease immediate selling pressure and pave the way toward the 100-day SMA at $4,426.31, followed by the 200-day SMA at $4,490.85. On the downside, initial support is found at the 21-day SMA around $4,073.95. A sustained break below this level would expose lower support zones and confirm that sellers have regained control of the daily trend.

Gold failed to hold above the $4,100 psychological level despite closing above it on Thursday, as the US Dollar Index staged a solid rebound from a six-week low against a basket of major currencies.

Although Pakistani mediators confirmed that negotiations between Tehran and Washington remain ongoing, renewed military escalation following a heavy US strike on Iran in retaliation for another attack targeting American forces in Jordan revived safe-haven demand for the US dollar.

In response, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf wrote on X that, "Americans have become accustomed to compensating for the blows they receive on the battlefield by shedding the blood of innocent people. They will pay the price."

The US dollar also drew additional support from persistent expectations that the Federal Reserve could still deliver another interest rate hike later this year, even though Fed Chair Kevin Warsh offered no clear guidance on additional monetary tightening during Wednesday's post-policy meeting press conference.

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Gold Sellers Dominate

 

Gold Sellers Stay in Control Ahead of US Q2 GDP Data

Gold prices remained under pressure during the first half of Thursday's European session, extending their bearish tone after failing to sustain gains near the $4,100 level. Following Wednesday's post-FOMC decline to a one-week low, the US Dollar (USD) regained momentum amid renewed US-Iran tensions, weighing on XAU/USD ahead of the release of the preliminary US Q2 GDP report.

At the time of writing, XAU/USD was trading around $4,053.13, maintaining a short-term bearish bias as spot prices continued to trade below all major Simple Moving Averages (SMAs).

The 21-day SMA at $4,073.46 now serves as the nearest resistance level, while the 50-day SMA at $4,193.29, 100-day SMA at $4,435.77, and 200-day SMA at $4,490.68 reinforce a stronger resistance zone. Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 46.00, slightly below the neutral level, suggesting weakening downside momentum rather than deeply oversold conditions.

Gold Technical Outlook Remains Bearish

From a technical perspective, the first upside barrier is the 21-day SMA near $4,073, followed by the 50-day SMA around $4,193. A sustained move above these levels could improve short-term sentiment, although the 100-day and 200-day SMAs near $4,436 and $4,491 remain significant medium-term resistance levels that bulls must reclaim to shift the broader technical outlook.

On the downside, the absence of a clear support level leaves gold vulnerable to further losses. Any renewed test of recent lows could see price action driven primarily by momentum and order flows until a stronger structural support level emerges.

Safe-Haven Demand Supports the US Dollar

Gold surrendered its earlier gains as the US Dollar attracted fresh buying interest following renewed safe-haven demand after the United States launched fresh military strikes against Iran on Wednesday.

US Central Command announced on X that it had completed a "wave of heavy strikes" targeting the southwestern Iranian city of Abadan and Qeshm Island. According to the US military, the operation was carried out in response to an attempted Iranian missile attack on American forces in the region and aimed to reduce threats posed by Iran and its regional proxies to US personnel, commercial shipping, and neighboring Gulf states.

Although crude oil prices found modest support from the renewed Middle East conflict after a brief weekend lull, gold buyers remained cautious as persistent inflation concerns offset the traditional safe-haven appeal of the precious metal following oil's 6.5% rally in the previous session.

Fed Policy Uncertainty Keeps Markets on Edge

Gold experienced volatile two-way trading on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, in line with market expectations. However, the decision was accompanied by an unexpectedly hawkish 9-3 vote, reinforcing the central bank's commitment to controlling inflation.

The FXS Fed Sentiment Index remained unchanged at a hawkish 128.64, indicating that the overall policy stance continues to favor tighter monetary conditions. Combined with an elevated FXS SpeechTracker reading, the data suggest that the Fed continues to provide fundamental support for the US Dollar despite leaving interest rates unchanged.

However, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's cautious comments regarding additional policy tightening raised uncertainty over whether the central bank can keep long-term inflation expectations anchored and whether another rate hike remains possible at the September FOMC meeting.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now assign a 35% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged again in September, up from 24% a day earlier.

US GDP and PCE Inflation Data in Focus

Looking ahead, investors will closely monitor the preliminary US second-quarter GDP report, which is expected to show the US economy expanding at an annualized 2.1%, matching the pace recorded in the previous quarter.

Alongside the GDP release, traders will also focus on the latest US Initial Jobless Claims and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure. These reports are expected to provide fresh guidance on the US economic outlook, future Fed policy expectations, and the next directional move for gold prices.

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Gold Eyes FOMC

Gold Recovers Toward $4,050 as Traders Await FOMC Policy Decision

Gold prices extended their intraday recovery during Wednesday's European session, climbing toward the $4,050 level after rebounding from their lowest point in more than a week. A modest pullback in the US Dollar provided support for the precious metal, although upside momentum remained limited as investors awaited the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting.

At the time of writing, XAU/USD was trading around $4,028.78, remaining in a corrective phase below all major moving averages and maintaining a bearish short-term technical outlook.

On the daily chart, the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $4,070 acts as the first resistance level, while the 50-day SMA around $4,202 reinforces the broader upside barrier. Meanwhile, the 100-day and 200-day SMAs, clustered between $4,447 and $4,491, suggest that the medium-term trend remains under pressure. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 44, below the neutral 50 mark, indicating that bearish momentum still dominates despite the absence of oversold conditions.

From a technical perspective, immediate resistance is located at the 21-day SMA around $4,070, followed by the 50-day SMA near $4,202, where renewed selling interest could emerge if bullion extends its rebound. A sustained move above these levels would be required to challenge the longer-term resistance zone between the 100-day SMA at $4,447 and the 200-day SMA at $4,491, which continues to define the broader bearish structure.

On the downside, with no significant moving-average support nearby, traders are likely to focus on recent swing lows and the key psychological $4,000 level as the next demand zone. A decisive break below this threshold could expose gold to deeper losses.

Gold is currently consolidating after two consecutive sessions of declines as investors reposition ahead of the highly anticipated Federal Reserve policy announcement.

The precious metal found support from a softer US Dollar, which extended overnight losses following weaker-than-expected US June Goods Trade Balance data and profit-taking after the greenback's three-month high.

However, renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East triggered a sharp 4% rally in crude oil prices, reviving inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve could maintain a hawkish stance. Rising inflation expectations generally support higher interest rates, limiting the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.

According to reports, the US Central Command carried out precision strikes in Iraq targeting Iran-backed groups allegedly preparing attacks on US forces and Saudi oil facilities. The escalation followed reports that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched several ballistic missiles toward US military positions in the Middle East and energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, adding another layer of geopolitical uncertainty to global financial markets.

Despite safe-haven demand, gold traders remain cautious ahead of the FOMC decision, avoiding aggressive positioning as markets continue to price in the possibility of another rate hike.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets currently assign roughly a 30% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike at the July meeting, up from approximately 25% a week earlier, while expectations for a September rate increase remain close to 80%.

Beyond the interest rate decision itself, investors will closely monitor the voting split within the FOMC and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh for fresh guidance on the outlook for monetary policy.

Should policymakers acknowledge persistent inflation, deliver a more hawkish-than-expected voting outcome, or signal that another rate hike remains possible later this year, the US Dollar and Treasury yields could strengthen further, putting renewed pressure on non-yielding gold.

Conversely, if the Fed downplays the inflationary impact of rising energy prices and reiterates that future policy decisions will remain data-dependent, expectations for a September rate hike could ease. Such an outcome would likely weaken the US Dollar, push Treasury yields lower, and provide additional support for a sustained recovery in gold prices.

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