Gold Eyes FOMC

Gold Recovers Toward $4,050 as Traders Await FOMC Policy Decision

Gold prices extended their intraday recovery during Wednesday's European session, climbing toward the $4,050 level after rebounding from their lowest point in more than a week. A modest pullback in the US Dollar provided support for the precious metal, although upside momentum remained limited as investors awaited the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting.

At the time of writing, XAU/USD was trading around $4,028.78, remaining in a corrective phase below all major moving averages and maintaining a bearish short-term technical outlook.

On the daily chart, the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $4,070 acts as the first resistance level, while the 50-day SMA around $4,202 reinforces the broader upside barrier. Meanwhile, the 100-day and 200-day SMAs, clustered between $4,447 and $4,491, suggest that the medium-term trend remains under pressure. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 44, below the neutral 50 mark, indicating that bearish momentum still dominates despite the absence of oversold conditions.

From a technical perspective, immediate resistance is located at the 21-day SMA around $4,070, followed by the 50-day SMA near $4,202, where renewed selling interest could emerge if bullion extends its rebound. A sustained move above these levels would be required to challenge the longer-term resistance zone between the 100-day SMA at $4,447 and the 200-day SMA at $4,491, which continues to define the broader bearish structure.

On the downside, with no significant moving-average support nearby, traders are likely to focus on recent swing lows and the key psychological $4,000 level as the next demand zone. A decisive break below this threshold could expose gold to deeper losses.

Gold is currently consolidating after two consecutive sessions of declines as investors reposition ahead of the highly anticipated Federal Reserve policy announcement.

The precious metal found support from a softer US Dollar, which extended overnight losses following weaker-than-expected US June Goods Trade Balance data and profit-taking after the greenback's three-month high.

However, renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East triggered a sharp 4% rally in crude oil prices, reviving inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve could maintain a hawkish stance. Rising inflation expectations generally support higher interest rates, limiting the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.

According to reports, the US Central Command carried out precision strikes in Iraq targeting Iran-backed groups allegedly preparing attacks on US forces and Saudi oil facilities. The escalation followed reports that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched several ballistic missiles toward US military positions in the Middle East and energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, adding another layer of geopolitical uncertainty to global financial markets.

Despite safe-haven demand, gold traders remain cautious ahead of the FOMC decision, avoiding aggressive positioning as markets continue to price in the possibility of another rate hike.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets currently assign roughly a 30% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike at the July meeting, up from approximately 25% a week earlier, while expectations for a September rate increase remain close to 80%.

Beyond the interest rate decision itself, investors will closely monitor the voting split within the FOMC and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh for fresh guidance on the outlook for monetary policy.

Should policymakers acknowledge persistent inflation, deliver a more hawkish-than-expected voting outcome, or signal that another rate hike remains possible later this year, the US Dollar and Treasury yields could strengthen further, putting renewed pressure on non-yielding gold.

Conversely, if the Fed downplays the inflationary impact of rising energy prices and reiterates that future policy decisions will remain data-dependent, expectations for a September rate hike could ease. Such an outcome would likely weaken the US Dollar, push Treasury yields lower, and provide additional support for a sustained recovery in gold prices.

Share:

Read More

Gold Stays Weak

Gold prices remained under pressure during Tuesday's Asian session, extending their daily losses below the $4,050 mark as traders continued to favor the US dollar ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy decision. XAU/USD was trading around $4,047.22, down 0.85% on the day after failing to sustain Monday's recovery above the $4,100 resistance level.

The latest price action reinforces the bearish outlook for gold, with sellers maintaining firm control as investors brace for the Federal Reserve's interest rate announcement and updated policy guidance.

From a technical perspective, gold continues to display a negative short-term bias. The precious metal remains below the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,070.45 and well beneath the 50-day SMA at $4,212.98, 100-day SMA at $4,458.42, and 200-day SMA at $4,492.57. The downward slope of these moving averages suggests that any recovery attempt could face strong selling pressure.

Momentum indicators also favor the bears. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 44.99, remaining below the neutral 50 level and indicating that bullish momentum remains limited despite recent attempts to stabilize.

Adding to the negative technical picture, the 100-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on July 22, confirming a classic Bear Cross, a widely watched bearish signal that often points to continued downside momentum over the medium term.

On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at the 21-day SMA near $4,070, followed by stronger resistance around the 50-day SMA at $4,213. Additional barriers are located at the 100-day SMA near $4,458 and the 200-day SMA around $4,493, creating a broad supply zone that could cap any sustained recovery.

With no major technical support defined by the moving averages, a decisive break below $4,047 could expose gold to a retest of previous swing lows and other key horizontal support levels on the daily chart.

Fundamentally, bullion remains pressured by renewed demand for the US dollar. The greenback rebounded sharply on Monday and continues to trade near a three-week high as markets increasingly believe the Federal Reserve could still deliver another interest rate hike.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in approximately a 38% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the July meeting, up significantly from around 16% just over a week ago. Markets also assign an 81% chance of another rate increase in September, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance.

Persistent hawkish expectations have outweighed optimism generated by easing geopolitical tensions following the temporary pause in hostilities between the United States and Iran. At the same time, lower crude oil prices have helped reduce inflation concerns, but have not been enough to weaken the dollar or US Treasury yields.

Risk sentiment also deteriorated after a deeper sell-off in Asian semiconductor stocks, boosting demand for traditional safe-haven assets such as the US dollar while limiting interest in non-yielding assets like gold.

Looking ahead, gold is likely to remain vulnerable as long as the US dollar stays supported by hawkish Federal Reserve expectations and cautious market sentiment. Traders are also expected to avoid taking aggressive directional positions before Wednesday's FOMC policy announcement, leaving XAU/USD susceptible to further downside pressure if the central bank delivers a more hawkish-than-expected message.

Share:

Read More

Gold Awaits FOMC

Gold Price Holds Firm on US-Iran Diplomacy Hopes and Reduced Fed Rate Hike Bets, Bulls Remain Cautious

Gold prices (XAU/USD) remained resilient on Monday, holding above the $4,100 level as renewed optimism over a diplomatic resolution between the United States and Iran helped ease geopolitical tensions. However, the precious metal struggled to extend its gains, with investors remaining cautious ahead of this week's highly anticipated Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

The yellow metal maintained its positive tone during the early European session after opening with a modest bullish gap. Despite the initial strength, buying momentum remained limited as traders refrained from making aggressive bets before the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision.

Market sentiment improved following renewed hopes that diplomatic negotiations could bring an end to the five-month conflict between the United States and Iran. The easing geopolitical risk triggered a sharp decline in crude oil prices, reducing inflation concerns and lowering expectations for additional Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.

The pullback in oil prices has softened demand for traditional inflation hedges such as gold. At the same time, investors continue to assess the outlook for US monetary policy, with the Fed widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged while signaling its stance on future rate adjustments.

With the FOMC meeting taking center stage this week, traders are expected to closely monitor the Fed's policy statement and comments from Chair Kevin Warsh for fresh clues on inflation, economic growth, and the timing of potential interest rate cuts.

While gold continues to benefit from safe-haven demand, the lack of strong bullish conviction suggests that XAU/USD could remain range-bound until clearer guidance emerges from the Federal Reserve.

Share:

Read More

Gold Below $4050

Gold Prices Stay Under Pressure Below $4,050 as Hawkish Fed Expectations and Stronger US Dollar Weigh

Gold prices remained under selling pressure for a second consecutive session, extending losses below the $4,050 mark during Friday's Asian trading. Rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran continued to keep crude oil prices elevated, fueling inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain higher interest rates for longer. The outlook has supported the US Dollar (USD), which climbed to its highest level in nearly a month on Thursday, reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.

Technical Outlook Signals Further Downside for Gold

From a technical perspective, gold's failure to break above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) earlier this week, followed by the latest decline, suggests that the recent rebound from the $3,960–$3,959 monthly low has lost momentum.

Momentum indicators continue to favor the bears. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains firmly in negative territory with its signal lines well below zero, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 41, indicating that bearish momentum is still intact.

A decisive break below the key psychological level of $4,000, followed by support at $3,980–$3,975, would reinforce the bearish outlook and expose gold to deeper losses. In the near term, intraday price action is likely to be driven by previous reaction levels rather than established technical indicators.

On the upside, immediate resistance is located at the 200-period EMA, currently around $4,158.08. Only a sustained move above this critical resistance level would ease the current bearish pressure and improve the short-term outlook for XAU/USD.

Middle East Escalation Drives Oil Prices Higher

Geopolitical tensions continued to intensify after the U.S. military confirmed it had completed another round of strikes against Iran on Thursday, marking the 13th consecutive night of military operations.

According to the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), the strikes targeted Iranian military command centers, drone storage facilities, communications infrastructure, coastal surveillance sites, and maritime capabilities. Washington said the operations were intended to reduce threats to civilian shipping and commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

The conflict widened further as Iran and its regional allies reportedly launched retaliatory attacks against U.S.-linked military assets in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan. Meanwhile, Iran-backed Houthi forces attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, describing the operation as part of a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia. The attacks raised concerns over global energy supply disruptions and pushed crude oil prices to their highest level since June 11.

Higher Oil Prices Strengthen the Case for a Hawkish Fed

Investors remain concerned that rising energy prices could reignite inflationary pressures, forcing major central banks—including the Federal Reserve—to maintain a more hawkish policy stance.

Supporting that view, data released on Thursday showed U.S. Initial Jobless Claims fell to their lowest level since September 1969, highlighting the resilience of the labor market. The stronger-than-expected employment data gives Federal Reserve policymakers additional room to prioritize inflation control, increasing expectations for at least one more interest rate hike before year-end.

Trump's New Tariffs Boost Safe-Haven US Dollar

Adding to market uncertainty, U.S. President Donald Trump announced sweeping new tariffs ranging from 10% to 12.5% on imports from 60 major trading partners, covering approximately 99.4% of total U.S. imports.

The move has revived fears of a renewed global trade war, dampening risk appetite across financial markets while reinforcing the US Dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency.

A stronger dollar, combined with rising Treasury yields and expectations of tighter monetary policy, continues to pressure gold prices. Unless geopolitical risks intensify enough to trigger stronger safe-haven demand, XAU/USD could remain vulnerable to further downside ahead of next week's FOMC meeting.

Share:

Read More

Gold Holds $4100

Gold Holds Near $4,100 as Oil-Driven Inflation Fears Strengthen Hawkish Fed Expectations

Gold prices remained under pressure near the $4,100 psychological level during Thursday's European session as surging crude oil prices fueled inflation concerns and reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish monetary policy stance.

U.S. crude oil climbed to a fresh six-week high near $90 per barrel following renewed escalation in tensions between the United States and Iran. The rally in energy prices has intensified fears that inflation could remain elevated, strengthening market expectations for additional Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Higher interest rates typically reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold by increasing the opportunity cost of holding bullion.

Gold Technical Outlook Remains Constructive

Despite the latest pullback, the XAU/USD pair continues to trade within a one-week uptrend, with immediate resistance clustered between $4,155 and $4,165. This area combines the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the four-hour chart with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April-to-June decline, making it a critical technical pivot for short-term traders.

Momentum indicators continue to favor the bulls. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains around 63, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays in positive territory, suggesting buyers remain in control despite increasing selling pressure near overhead resistance.

A decisive breakout above the $4,165 resistance zone could pave the way toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $4,303.59, reinforcing the bullish outlook. On the downside, key structural support is located at the Fibonacci anchor near $3,940.90, where stronger buying interest could emerge and establish a more sustainable recovery.

Middle East Tensions Continue to Support Oil Prices

Geopolitical risks remain elevated after the United States and Iran exchanged attacks for a twelfth consecutive night. Meanwhile, the Iran-backed Houthi movement in Yemen announced a blockade targeting major shipping routes in the Red Sea, a corridor responsible for transporting approximately 7% of global oil supplies.

The latest disruption adds to reduced shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, heightening concerns over global energy supply. As a result, crude oil has extended its strong monthly rally, increasing fears that higher energy costs could reignite inflation and force central banks to maintain tighter monetary policies for longer.

Fed Rate Expectations Remain Firm

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now see more than a 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates before the end of the year. Those expectations have continued to support U.S. Treasury yields, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield hovering near a two-month high.

However, continued weakness in the U.S. Dollar has provided some support for gold prices, helping limit downside losses. This mixed backdrop suggests traders may prefer waiting for stronger selling pressure before concluding that gold's recent bullish momentum has faded.

Deutsche Bank Sees More Hawkish Fed Pricing

Analysts at Deutsche Bank noted that financial markets have significantly repriced Federal Reserve expectations. Investors are now anticipating a more aggressive policy path, with approximately 34 basis points of tightening priced in for the December meeting, an increase of 2.3 basis points from the previous session.

The bank added that the repricing has contributed to higher real U.S. yields and broader selling across the Treasury market, factors that traditionally weigh on gold prices.

Key Events to Watch

Investors are now focusing on the release of the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims report, which could influence market sentiment during the North American session. Attention will also turn to the highly anticipated European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting, which may trigger increased volatility across currency and precious metals markets.

At the same time, any further escalation in the Middle East conflict is expected to remain a major catalyst for gold prices, creating short-term trading opportunities as investors balance safe-haven demand against expectations for tighter global monetary policy.

Share:

Read More

Gold Retreats Slightly

Gold Retreats from Two-Week High as Energy-Driven Inflation Fuels Fed Rate Hike Expectations

Gold prices eased from a two-week high on Wednesday but maintained a bullish intraday bias during the first half of the European session. The precious metal remained supported by a weaker U.S. dollar after renewed optimism that U.S.-Iran diplomatic efforts could help ease energy prices and reduce expectations for a more aggressive Federal Reserve.

Senior negotiators from both the United States and Iran signaled that diplomatic discussions remain ongoing, raising hopes for a potential de-escalation of geopolitical tensions. The prospect of lower energy prices weighed on the U.S. dollar and provided underlying support for gold.

Technical Outlook Remains Constructive Above $4,100

From a technical perspective, XAU/USD continues to trade with a positive bias after breaking above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from mid-June and establishing support above the $4,100 level.

Momentum indicators continue to favor the bulls. The Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) is approaching overbought territory near 69.9, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains firmly in positive territory with the signal line comfortably above zero. These indicators suggest that bullish momentum remains intact, although the rally may be becoming overstretched.

A sustained move above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the four-hour chart would further reinforce the bullish outlook. If buyers maintain control, gold could target the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at $4,163.16, followed by the 61.8% retracement at $4,215.39. Additional upside resistance is located at $4,289.75, with the next major target near the cycle high of $4,384.47.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 200-period SMA near $4,128.26, followed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $4,110.93 and the 23.6% retracement at $4,046.31. A deeper correction could expose the late-June structural low around $3,941.85.

Middle East Tensions Keep Inflation Risks Elevated

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on Sunday that Washington remains open to negotiations with Iran, while Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni urged Pakistan to continue its diplomatic efforts. These developments prompted some profit-taking in the U.S. dollar after its strong rally over the past week.

However, geopolitical tensions remain elevated. The U.S. military confirmed it carried out an eleventh consecutive night of strikes against Iran, targeting aircraft hangars and drone storage facilities. President Donald Trump also warned that U.S. military operations would intensify and target any sites linked to Iran's efforts to rebuild its nuclear program.

Meanwhile, Iran continued launching attacks across the Gulf region, targeting U.S. military assets in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan. Tehran also claimed responsibility for attacks on two oil tankers attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz, while the Iran-backed Houthi movement in Yemen announced a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia.

These escalating developments have heightened concerns over a broader regional conflict and the potential disruption of global energy supplies. As a result, crude oil prices climbed to their highest level since June 12, fueling fears of energy-driven inflation that could force the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish monetary policy stance.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in an 88% probability that the Federal Reserve will deliver at least one additional interest rate hike before the end of the year. Higher interest rate expectations continue to support the U.S. dollar and could limit further gains in non-yielding assets such as gold.

Gold Recovery May Remain Limited

Analysts at OCBC believe gold is likely to remain range-bound in the near term despite recent gains.

They expect the precious metal to experience two-way trading, with any rebound likely to face strong resistance. According to the bank, a more sustainable recovery would require lower crude oil prices, easing real Treasury yields, and reduced expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening.

Until those conditions improve, OCBC expects gold's upside potential to remain limited despite continued geopolitical uncertainty and safe-haven demand.

Share:

Read More