Gold Under Pressure

Gold Struggles Near 100-Day SMA as Trump Escalates Pressure on Iran

Gold prices are hovering around the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) as geopolitical tensions intensify following renewed threats from former U.S. President Donald Trump toward Iran. Despite opening with a bearish gap on Monday, the precious metal managed to hold above the key $4,600 level, showing limited resilience amid rising market uncertainty.

Gold Remains Under Pressure Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Market sentiment turned cautious after hopes for de-escalation in the Middle East faded. Trump warned of potential strikes on Iran’s infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, triggering renewed risk-off sentiment across global markets.

As a result, gold maintains a short-term bearish bias, trading below both the 21-day SMA at $4,774.95 and the 50-day SMA at $4,943.64. This technical setup continues to cap any upward momentum, keeping recent rebounds within a corrective phase.

Technical Outlook: Key Support and Resistance Levels

Momentum indicators reinforce the bearish outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) remains around 45, signaling weak buying interest following a previous oversold bounce.

• Immediate support is seen at the 100-day SMA near $4,654.27
• A decisive break below this level could expose the next major support at the 200-day SMA around $4,150.48
• On the upside, gold needs a daily close above the 21-day SMA at $4,774.95 to ease downside pressure
• Further resistance stands at the 50-day SMA near $4,943.64, which limits a stronger recovery

Trump’s Threats Add to Market Volatility

Gold’s struggle early Monday comes as traders digest Trump’s social media statements posted Sunday, where he escalated pressure on Iran and extended the deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

In a controversial post, Trump warned of severe consequences if the waterway remains blocked, raising fears of further escalation in the region. In response, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) signaled potential retaliation against U.S. economic interests if civilian targets are attacked.

Reports also suggest Iran is considering a significantly stronger response should tensions escalate further, keeping global markets on edge.

Strong US Dollar Weighs on Gold Prices

The U.S. Dollar (USD) continues to gain strength as investors seek safe-haven assets amid geopolitical risks. This trend puts additional pressure on USD-denominated gold.

Adding to the bearish outlook, expectations for a more hawkish Federal Reserve remain elevated following stronger-than-expected U.S. labor market data.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Nonfarm Payrolls surged by 178,000 in March, far exceeding market expectations of 60,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.3%, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts.

Market pricing currently suggests a high probability that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady through the remainder of the year, further supporting the U.S. Dollar.

Market Focus: Strait of Hormuz and Fed Policy

Looking ahead, traders are closely watching developments surrounding the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Any escalation or resolution could significantly impact gold prices.

Additionally, thin trading conditions due to the Easter holiday may amplify price volatility as U.S. markets return from the extended weekend.

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Gold Price Drops

Gold Falls Below $4,700 Ahead of US NFP Release

Gold prices slipped toward the $4,675 level during early Asian trading on Friday, facing renewed selling pressure. The decline comes after comments from US President Donald Trump regarding a potential conflict with Iran, which triggered a sharp rise in oil prices. Trading activity remained subdued due to the Good Friday holiday.

From a technical perspective, gold failed to hold above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), now acting as resistance on the 4-hour chart near the $4,800 level—reinforcing bearish sentiment for XAU/USD. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has retreated to the mid-50 range after previously entering overbought territory above 70, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is pulling back from recent highs. These indicators suggest fading bullish momentum rather than a complete trend reversal.

Further downside pressure below the daily swing low around $4,554–$4,553 could push gold prices toward the next support level just below the key psychological mark of $4,500. A break below this level may open the door to deeper losses toward $4,400. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen near the recent swing high at $4,765. A breakout above this level could drive prices toward the $4,820–$4,830 zone, where the 200-period EMA presents a stronger barrier.

Meanwhile, Trump added that Iran’s energy infrastructure remains a potential target. A report from the Wall Street Journal also noted that the United Arab Emirates is pushing for military action to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, including lobbying for a UN Security Council resolution. This development fueled a sharp rally in crude oil prices, reigniting inflation concerns and strengthening expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

Rising US Treasury yields have supported the US dollar, adding pressure on non-yielding assets like gold. As a result, gold has dropped nearly $150 from its Asian session peak, with volatility expected to remain high amid ongoing geopolitical developments.

Despite the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, gold’s reaction may be limited as markets remain focused on tensions in the Middle East. However, the broader fundamental outlook suggests caution before expecting a sustained recovery from the recent four-month low near $4,100.

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Gold Insurance Interest

Gold Interest Rises in Insurance Industry, Great Eastern (GEGI) Responds

PT Great Eastern General Insurance Indonesia (GEGI) reports a growing interest in gold as an investment instrument amid ongoing global economic uncertainty. However, the allocation of gold within the insurance industry’s investment portfolio remains relatively small.

According to GEGI Marketing Director, Linggawati Tok, gold is increasingly being considered as an alternative for portfolio diversification and a hedge against inflation. Despite this trend, she emphasized that its use must remain selective and carefully measured.

“Gold does not generate regular income and tends to have relatively high price volatility. Therefore, its utilization must be done selectively and in a well-calculated manner,” Linggawati stated on Tuesday (March 31, 2026).

Data from Indonesia’s Financial Services Authority (OJK) shows that as of January 2026, total investment in gold within the insurance sector reached only around Rp3.4 billion, equivalent to just 0.0005% of total industry investments.

Meanwhile, insurance companies continue to rely heavily on fixed-income instruments such as government bonds (SBN), corporate bonds, and deposits, which are considered more stable and better aligned with policyholder obligations.

Nevertheless, GEGI believes that the potential for increased gold investment remains open in the future, particularly as part of a long-term diversification strategy.

“Looking ahead, the opportunity is still there. However, it will be implemented gradually while adhering to prudential principles, risk management, and regulatory requirements,” she concluded.

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Gold Prices Rise

 Gold Prices Rise for Third Straight Day on April 1, 2026 Amid Middle East Tensions Easing

Gold prices extended their gains on Wednesday morning (April 1, 2026), marking a third consecutive day of increases as geopolitical tensions showed signs of easing.

According to Bloomberg, as of 06:45 WIB, gold futures for June 2026 delivery on the Commodity Exchange were trading at $4,716.40 per troy ounce, up 0.81% from the previous session’s level of $4,678.60 per troy ounce.

The recent rally in gold prices comes after U.S. President Donald Trump signaled a potential end to the ongoing conflict with Iran within the next two to three weeks. The statement boosted market sentiment, reducing uncertainty surrounding global geopolitical risks.

Trump indicated that the United States had achieved most of its military objectives and may leave further developments in the Strait of Hormuz to other nations. This strategic shift has been closely watched by investors, particularly in the commodities and energy markets.

Meanwhile, Iranian state media reported that President Masoud Pezeshkian expressed readiness to end the conflict, provided certain conditions are met. This development has further contributed to easing tensions in the region.

Despite the current rebound, gold bullion recorded a sharp decline of nearly 12% in March. The prolonged conflict in the Middle East, now entering its fifth week, has disrupted global markets, threatened energy supplies, and raised concerns over rising inflation alongside slowing economic growth.

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Gold Price Pullback

 

Gold Price Trims Gains as Hawkish Central Banks Offset Weaker USD

Gold prices trimmed part of their intraday gains after struggling to sustain momentum above the $4,600 level, retreating from a one-and-a-half-week high reached during the Asian session. Reports that Donald Trump may end the military campaign against Iran—despite the Strait of Hormuz remaining partially closed—triggered a corrective pullback in crude oil prices.

This development eased inflation concerns and kept US Treasury yields subdued, prompting some profit-taking in the US Dollar (USD) and providing limited support to gold prices.

Technical Analysis: Short-Term Bearish Bias Emerges

From a technical perspective, gold shows a cautiously bearish short-term bias as prices trade below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the monthly swing high.

Additionally, gold remains below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), signaling that while the broader uptrend is still intact, near-term pressure is building. Meanwhile, the 200-day SMA continues to trend higher, reinforcing the long-term bullish structure despite recent pullbacks.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded from oversold territory to around 41, indicating weakening bearish momentum but limited upside strength. At the same time, the MACD remains in negative territory, confirming fading bullish momentum.

• Immediate resistance: $4,592 (38.2% Fibonacci level)
• Next resistance: $4,637 (100-day SMA)
• A daily close above this level could open the door toward $4,747 (50% retracement)

On the downside:

• Initial support: $4,470 (recent low)
• Key support: $4,401 (23.6% retracement)
• A break below this zone could expose $4,200–$4,150, with the 200-day SMA near $4,129 acting as a major support level

As long as gold holds above the 23.6% retracement and 200-day SMA, the broader bullish outlook remains intact. However, a breakdown below these levels would strengthen the current bearish bias.

Geopolitical Risks and Fed Policy Cap Gold Upside

Iran’s reluctance to engage in direct negotiations with the US highlights fragile diplomatic progress. At the same time, continued US military deployment in the region adds uncertainty and dampens hopes for rapid de-escalation in the Middle East.

This backdrop could support crude oil prices and keep inflation risks elevated, reinforcing expectations of higher global interest rates.

Hawkish signals from major central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve (Fed), continue to limit upside potential for non-yielding assets like gold.

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Gold Gains Today

Gold Gains After Trump Signals Progress With Iran, Still Heads for Weekly Loss

Gold prices edged higher in Asian trading on Friday, supported by a slightly weaker U.S. dollar and easing geopolitical tensions after Donald Trump signaled progress in negotiations with Iran.

Spot gold rose 1.2% to $4,429.32 per ounce as of 22:43 ET (02:43 GMT), while U.S. gold futures climbed 1.1% to $4,457.60 per ounce. Despite the rebound, gold remains on track to post a weekly decline of around 1.3%, following a sharp 3% drop in the previous session.

Trump-Iran Developments Weigh on Safe-Haven Demand

On Thursday, Trump announced a temporary 10-day halt to strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure at Tehran’s request, adding that negotiations are “going very well.”

This pause in hostilities has reduced immediate safe-haven demand. However, it has also put mild pressure on the U.S. dollar, offering support to gold prices, which typically move inversely to the greenback.

The US Dollar Index slipped 0.1% after posting gains over the past three sessions.

Volatility Persists Amid Middle East Tensions

Gold markets have experienced significant volatility in recent weeks, as ongoing Middle East tensions disrupt traditional safe-haven dynamics. Prices surged to record highs earlier this year before pulling back sharply over the past month.

Earlier this month, a spike in oil prices—triggered by supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict—raised concerns about global inflation. Higher energy costs could keep inflation elevated and reinforce expectations that central banks will maintain higher interest rates for longer.

Outlook: Uncertainty Continues to Support Gold

While easing tensions between Washington and Tehran have capped gains, lingering uncertainty surrounding the conflict and its broader economic impact continues to provide underlying support for gold. 

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