Gold Prices Advance

 

Gold Prices Rise as Middle East Risks Offset Strong Dollar Ahead of U.S. Payrolls

Gold prices extended their gains on Friday, building on the previous session's rally as investors weighed escalating geopolitical tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz against expectations for the Federal Reserve's next policy move. Market participants are also awaiting the highly anticipated U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for fresh direction.

As of 12:04 WIB, spot gold (XAU/USD) climbed 0.6% to $4,264.22 per ounce, while Gold Futures gained 0.6% to $4,323.07. Meanwhile, silver (XAG/USD) advanced 1.2% to $62.26 per ounce, and platinum (XPT/USD) rose 0.6% to $1,740.05.

Hormuz Tensions Keep Safe-Haven Demand Elevated

Geopolitical uncertainty remains the primary catalyst for gold after Iranian media reported that Tehran had targeted what it described as "hostile targets" in the Strait of Hormuz and was preparing legislation to ban U.S. and Israeli vessels from passing through the strategic shipping lane.

The latest developments followed earlier statements from Iranian officials indicating that an Oman-mediated agreement aimed at reopening the vital maritime corridor was nearing completion.

Separately, Yemen's Houthi movement claimed responsibility for a major attack on Saudi-backed government forces, raising concerns that the conflict could spread across the wider Middle East.

Despite the renewed escalation, U.S. President Donald Trump said he believes the conflict will end "fairly soon" and reiterated that the United States remains in control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Gold briefly surged above the $4,300 level on Thursday as optimism over a potential Hormuz agreement boosted safe-haven buying. However, the rally lost momentum after renewed geopolitical tensions reignited concerns that higher energy prices could fuel inflation, strengthening the case for a more hawkish Federal Reserve.

Markets are currently pricing in roughly a 60% probability of a September interest rate hike after the Financial Times reported that Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is prepared to raise borrowing costs if inflation remains elevated in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hovered around the 100 level, offering little additional direction for precious metals.

U.S. Payrolls, Fed Outlook, and China Demand in Focus

Investors are now turning their attention to Friday's U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is expected to be the next major catalyst shaping expectations for future Federal Reserve policy.

St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem warned that policymakers cannot ignore persistently high inflation while waiting for stronger productivity growth to eventually ease price pressures, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will remain cautious.

At the same time, robust investment demand from China continues to provide underlying support for gold prices. Chinese gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have recorded 14 consecutive sessions of net inflows, helping stabilize the precious metal despite broader macroeconomic uncertainty.

According to Tony Sycamore, Senior Market Analyst at IG, gold's recent breakout suggests the market has likely confirmed a price bottom near the late-June low of $3,942, after earlier price action briefly cast doubt on the bullish outlook.

Sycamore noted that maintaining support above this level would strengthen the case for an extended rally toward the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $4,489. A decisive breakout above that resistance could pave the way for a broader recovery toward the psychologically important $5,000 level.

He added that Friday's U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report will likely determine whether gold's latest breakout develops into a sustained bullish trend or loses momentum in the near term.

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Gold Hits High

Gold Climbs to One-Month High as Hormuz Reopening Hopes Ease Inflation Concerns

Gold prices (XAU/USD) surged to a one-month high on Wednesday as renewed optimism over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude oil prices lower, easing inflation concerns and improving sentiment toward the precious metal. At the time of writing, XAU/USD was trading near US$4,155, up nearly 1.90% on the day.

Gold Technical Outlook Remains Constructive

From a technical perspective, gold has reclaimed its position above the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at US$4,064, signaling a constructive short-term outlook. However, the rally remains capped just below the 50-day SMA at US$4,160, suggesting that the broader trend has yet to shift decisively into bullish territory.

Momentum indicators continue to strengthen. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed to around 55, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory, indicating that buyers are gradually regaining control despite facing near-term resistance.

On the upside, immediate resistance is located at the 50-day SMA near US$4,160, followed by the key horizontal barrier at US$4,200. A daily close above this zone could pave the way for a move toward the 100-day SMA around US$4,398.

On the downside, initial support stands at the 21-day SMA at US$4,064, followed by the major psychological level of US$4,000. A sustained break below this level would signal the start of a deeper corrective phase.

Hormuz Optimism Lifts Gold Despite Higher Rate Uncertainty

Gold extended its gains after renewed optimism emerged over a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a development expected to stabilize global energy supplies and reduce inflationary pressure.

U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington had held "very good discussions" with Iran during negotiations on Tuesday, adding that the Strait of Hormuz "will be opened very soon."

Meanwhile, Axios reported that the United States, Iran, and Oman were close to reaching a temporary agreement that could be announced as early as Wednesday. The proposed deal would establish a 60-day interim arrangement designed to restore commercial shipping through the strategically important waterway.

Analysts at ING noted that lower energy prices have eased some inflation concerns, creating a more supportive backdrop for gold. However, they emphasized that investors remain focused on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook following last week's meeting, leaving bullion caught between improving geopolitical sentiment and continued uncertainty over the path of U.S. interest rates.

Can Gold Extend Its Rally?

Despite improving market sentiment, the U.S. Dollar has weakened only modestly as traders await concrete evidence that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will fully normalize. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remained broadly flat near 99.85.

At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields have retreated from recent highs but continue to trade at elevated levels, reflecting lingering inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer. This remains a key factor limiting further upside in gold prices.

A deeper decline in crude oil prices—potentially reducing expectations of a more hawkish Fed—may be required for gold to extend its current rally.

Looking ahead, investors will closely monitor upcoming U.S. labor market data, including the ADP Employment Change report on Wednesday and the closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. These releases are expected to provide fresh clues about the Federal Reserve's next policy move and could determine the next major direction for gold prices.

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Gold Breaks $4,200

Gold Surges Above $4,200 as Hormuz Deal Hopes Ease Fed Rate Hike Expectations

Gold prices rallied more than 2% on Wednesday, breaking above the key $4,200 per troy ounce level as growing optimism over a temporary agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz eased inflation concerns and prompted investors to scale back expectations for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.

As of 14:07 WIB, XAU/USD climbed 2.1% to $4,162.79 per ounce, while Gold Futures advanced 1.7% to $4,222.92. Other precious metals also posted strong gains, with XAG/USD rising 3.2% to $61.45 per ounce and XPT/USD adding 1.8% to $1,768.95.

Gold Gains Momentum as Hormuz Reopening Prospects Reduce Inflation Risks

Gold extended its rally for a third consecutive session after signs of progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz helped ease fears that prolonged disruptions to global energy supplies would keep inflation elevated.

Qatar announced that a proposal had been drafted to restore shipping through the strategic waterway. Meanwhile, Axios reported that Washington, Tehran, and Oman were close to reaching an agreement, with U.S. officials aiming for an announcement as early as Wednesday.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also stated that a deal to reopen the strait could be finalized as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday, boosting expectations that global energy markets could soon stabilize.

The prospect of lower oil prices encouraged traders to further reduce expectations for tighter Federal Reserve monetary policy. Markets are now fully pricing in only one U.S. interest rate hike before the end of the year, down from two hikes anticipated just a week earlier.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) edged lower, making dollar-denominated gold more attractive to overseas buyers and providing additional support for bullion prices.

Fed Policy Outlook and Chinese Gold Demand Remain Key Market Drivers

Despite Wednesday's strong rebound, gold remains more than 20% below the highs reached after the U.S.-Iran conflict escalated in late February, when soaring oil prices fueled inflation concerns and strengthened expectations that interest rates would remain higher for longer.

Although the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting last week, three policymakers dissented in favor of another rate increase.

Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said she remains "open-minded" about the policy outlook amid mixed signals on whether current monetary conditions are sufficiently restrictive.

Separately, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid argued that higher interest rates may still be necessary to restore price stability, warning investors not to assume that inflationary pressures caused by supply shocks will fade quickly.

Gold has also received renewed support from China in recent weeks. According to Bloomberg data, Chinese gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded inflows for 14 consecutive trading sessions through Monday—the longest streak since March—indicating that institutional investors have returned to the market after months of outflows.

The renewed buying has helped keep gold prices firmly above the psychologically important $4,000 per ounce level, reinforcing expectations that resilient Chinese demand will continue to provide a cushion for the precious metal market as investors await clearer signals on the Federal Reserve's next policy move.

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Gold Awaits Payrolls

Gold Price Holds Steady as US Jobs Data and Middle East Risks Keep Investors on Edge

Gold prices traded slightly higher on Tuesday as investors prepared for a busy week of U.S. labor market data while closely monitoring escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and their potential impact on inflation and the Federal Reserve's interest rate path.

As of 14:06 GMT, XAU/USD was up 0.1% at $4,058.99 per troy ounce, while Gold Futures climbed 0.6% to $4,114.50.

Other precious metals also advanced, with XAG/USD (silver) gaining 1.3% to $58.95 per ounce, and XPT/USD (platinum) rising 1.1% to $1,648.23.

Gold Trapped Between Geopolitical Risks and Fed Expectations

Gold remained confined within its recent trading range as investors balanced ongoing geopolitical uncertainty against concerns that rising energy prices could keep U.S. interest rates elevated for longer.

Brent crude oil surged more than 20% in July after renewed military clashes between the United States and Iran, while attacks on commercial oil tankers near Oman intensified concerns over regional energy supplies.

Higher oil prices have fueled fresh inflation fears, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain its restrictive monetary policy for an extended period.

Adding to market uncertainty, Iran stated on Monday that no negotiations with the United States were currently underway and that no diplomatic meetings had been scheduled, contradicting comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, who suggested talks could resume soon.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) traded near the 100 level with little movement, offering limited directional support for bullion prices.

Investors Await Key US Employment Reports

Market participants are now focused on a series of critical U.S. labor market releases this week, including the ADP private payrolls report and Friday's highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

The data are expected to provide fresh clues about whether the Federal Reserve will need to tighten monetary policy further before the end of the year.

Recent hawkish remarks from three voting Federal Reserve officials have strengthened expectations for another potential rate hike following last week's policy meeting. In addition, New York Fed President John Williams reiterated that policymakers remain prepared to raise interest rates again if inflation continues to exceed target levels.

Those comments have reinforced expectations that higher interest rates could remain in place for longer, limiting upside momentum for gold.

IG: Gold Needs Break Above $4,080 to Confirm Recovery

According to Tony Sycamore, Senior Market Analyst at IG, gold continues to trade sideways within the $4,000–$4,200 range that has contained prices for the past month.

Sycamore noted that bullion must first break above the key resistance level near $4,080, followed by the early July high around $4,202, to confirm that a broader recovery is underway.

A sustained move above those levels could pave the way for a rally toward the 200-day moving average, currently located near $4,490.

Until that breakout occurs, however, Sycamore believes the balance of risks still favors another test of the late-June low near $3,942, highlighting continued market caution despite gold's recent stability.

With geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns, and upcoming U.S. employment data all influencing sentiment, traders are expected to remain cautious as they assess the next major catalyst for gold prices and the broader precious metals market.

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Gold Holds Steady

Gold Price Trades Below $4,100 as Stronger US Dollar Offsets Dovish Fed Rate Expectations

Gold prices (XAU/USD) struggled to build on a modest bullish gap at the weekly open, remaining below the $4,100 mark ahead of the European session. A moderate rebound in the US Dollar (USD) from its lowest level since June 17 capped gains in the precious metal, although the dollar's upside appears limited by easing expectations for additional Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and renewed optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran peace agreement.

Gold Price Outlook Remains Bearish Despite Consolidation

From a technical perspective, XAU/USD continues to trade within a familiar consolidation range below its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Given the recent decline, this price action still reflects a bearish consolidation phase, suggesting that the path of least resistance remains to the downside unless buyers reclaim key resistance levels.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains in positive territory with a reading near 11.6, signaling tentative bullish momentum. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) stands at 47.1, indicating neutral market conditions and limited directional conviction.

As a result, any further upside is likely to face strong resistance around the $4,100 level.

Key Resistance and Support Levels to Watch

A sustained break above $4,100 would expose the upper boundary of the current trading range just below $4,200. If buyers successfully clear that barrier, gold could extend its recovery toward the 200-day SMA near $4,490.33, a technically significant level that would weaken the prevailing bearish outlook and signal the potential for a broader bullish reversal.

On the downside, immediate support is located around the recent swing low between $3,976 and $4,000, where buyers previously stepped into the market. A decisive break below this support zone would reinforce bearish momentum and increase the likelihood of a deeper decline in XAU/USD.

US-Iran Peace Hopes and OPEC+ Decision Ease Inflation Concerns

Market sentiment improved after US President Donald Trump announced that a planned military strike against Iran had been canceled, stating that Middle Eastern allies had reached the framework of an agreement regarding Tehran's nuclear program and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump also revealed that US and Iranian officials would resume negotiations on Monday afternoon, raising optimism that a diplomatic solution could bring an end to the five-month regional conflict.

Adding to the positive sentiment, OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to increase crude oil production in September, triggering a sharp decline in oil prices. Lower energy prices eased inflation concerns and reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve will need to maintain an aggressive tightening cycle.

The combination of softer inflation expectations and a weaker outlook for Fed rate hikes could limit further gains in the US dollar while providing underlying support for gold prices.

Traders Await US Economic Data and Nonfarm Payrolls

Despite the improving macro backdrop for gold, traders remain reluctant to establish fresh bearish positions against the US dollar as geopolitical risks in the Middle East continue to create uncertainty across global financial markets.

Investors are now closely monitoring incoming geopolitical headlines, which could drive volatility and influence demand for safe-haven assets such as the US dollar and gold.

Attention also turns to a busy week of high-impact US economic data. The schedule begins with the ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday, followed by several labor market indicators throughout the week.

The primary focus will be Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is expected to provide fresh insight into the strength of the US labor market and shape market expectations for the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision. Stronger-than-expected employment data could support the US dollar and weigh on gold, while weaker figures may reinforce expectations for a more dovish Fed and provide additional upside for the precious metal.

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Gold Below $4100

 

Gold Price Falls but Holds Above $4,000 as Iran Tensions Revive US Dollar Demand

Gold prices extended their decline on Friday after a two-day recovery, slipping well below the $4,100 mark as the US Dollar (USD) regained momentum. Escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran revived inflation concerns and reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could still raise interest rates later this year, boosting the greenback and weighing on the precious metal. Meanwhile, the technical outlook continues to favor sellers, signaling the potential for further downside.

On the daily chart, XAU/USD was trading at $4,082.83, maintaining a bearish short-term bias as the pair remains below its key moving averages. The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,185.76, the 100-day SMA at $4,426.31, and the 200-day SMA at $4,490.85 all remain above current prices, indicating that recent rebounds are still part of a broader corrective phase. Meanwhile, the 21-day SMA at $4,073.95 provides immediate dynamic support.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) stands near 48.3, slightly below the neutral 50 level, suggesting weakening momentum while reinforcing the view that gold remains trapped in a broader bearish consolidation.

On the upside, the first major resistance is located at the 50-day SMA near $4,185.76. A decisive daily close above this level would ease immediate selling pressure and pave the way toward the 100-day SMA at $4,426.31, followed by the 200-day SMA at $4,490.85. On the downside, initial support is found at the 21-day SMA around $4,073.95. A sustained break below this level would expose lower support zones and confirm that sellers have regained control of the daily trend.

Gold failed to hold above the $4,100 psychological level despite closing above it on Thursday, as the US Dollar Index staged a solid rebound from a six-week low against a basket of major currencies.

Although Pakistani mediators confirmed that negotiations between Tehran and Washington remain ongoing, renewed military escalation following a heavy US strike on Iran in retaliation for another attack targeting American forces in Jordan revived safe-haven demand for the US dollar.

In response, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf wrote on X that, "Americans have become accustomed to compensating for the blows they receive on the battlefield by shedding the blood of innocent people. They will pay the price."

The US dollar also drew additional support from persistent expectations that the Federal Reserve could still deliver another interest rate hike later this year, even though Fed Chair Kevin Warsh offered no clear guidance on additional monetary tightening during Wednesday's post-policy meeting press conference.

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