Gold Holds Above $5,150 as Trump’s State of the Union Speech Fuels Safe-Haven Demand
Gold prices remain firm above the $5,150 level after rebounding from the previous session’s pullback from monthly highs. The precious metal attracted renewed buying interest as traders evaluated President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address, with ongoing trade uncertainty and rising geopolitical risks supporting demand for the traditional safe-haven asset.
Technical Analysis: Bullish Momentum Remains Intact
From a technical perspective, gold maintains a strong bullish bias. The 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) has crossed above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMAs, with all slopes trending upward — a clear confirmation of sustained upside momentum.
Price action continues to hold above these key trend indicators, with the 21-day SMA at $5,029.61 providing dynamic near-term support. Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 59.50, slightly above the midpoint, reinforcing steady bullish momentum without signaling overbought conditions.
Measured from the swing high of $5,597.89 to the low of $4,401.99, gold is stabilizing between the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $5,141.05 and the 78.6% retracement at $5,341.96. The latter level is currently capping upside movement.
A daily close above the 78.6% retracement could open the path toward a retest of previous highs. However, rejection at this level may trigger a corrective pullback toward the 50-day SMA at $4,742.30. As long as prices respect short-term moving averages, the near-term outlook favors continued consolidation within the retracement range before a decisive breakout.
US Dollar Stabilizes as Asian Markets Reopen
With Chinese and Japanese markets reopening, liquidity has returned to global markets, allowing the US Dollar (USD) to stabilize. Risk sentiment improved modestly after recent volatility driven by renewed tariff confusion linked to President Trump.
Over the weekend, tariff-related uncertainty triggered a “Sell America” trade, undermining investor confidence. Wall Street extended losses on Monday amid lingering concerns over trade policy, escalating geopolitical tensions, and caution ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report scheduled for Wednesday.
Gold paused its four-day rally due to the moderate USD rebound, briefly testing critical support near $5,142 after retreating from monthly highs.
Trade Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risks Support Gold
Markets remain highly sensitive to tariff headlines. The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday morning that the Trump administration is considering new national security tariffs on several industries, following last Friday’s Supreme Court ruling that overturned many tariffs from Trump’s second term.
In addition to trade tensions, geopolitical risks remain elevated as tensions between the United States and Iran continue to intensify.
Furthermore, expectations for at least two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year continue to provide underlying support for gold prices. Lower interest rate expectations typically weaken the dollar and enhance the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.
Gold is also supported by strong physical investment demand from India, even as prices hover near record highs, according to Money Metals Exchange.
Gold Price Outlook
Overall, gold remains well-supported above the $5,150 area amid trade uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and expectations of Fed rate cuts. Unless a strong USD rally emerges, dips are likely to remain limited as investors continue seeking protection in safe-haven assets.