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Gold Holds Gains as Safe-Haven Demand Persists Ahead of US-Iran Talks
Gold prices remain firm during Thursday’s European session, supported by ongoing safe-haven flows ahead of the highly anticipated US-Iran negotiations in Geneva. However, buyers appear cautious, waiting for a sustained move above the $5,200 psychological level before initiating fresh bullish positions.
Gold Technical Analysis: XAU/USD Maintains Bullish Bias
On the daily chart, XAU/USD is trading at $5,187.14, maintaining a mildly bullish short-term outlook. The precious metal continues to hold above the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $5,020 and the 50-day SMA around $4,775. Meanwhile, the upward-sloping 100-day and 200-day SMAs remain well below current price levels, reinforcing the broader uptrend.
Momentum indicators also favor the bulls. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 59, remaining in positive territory without entering overbought conditions. This suggests buyers retain control after digesting April’s extended rally.
Gold is also trading above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $5,141, measured from the $4,401–$5,598 rally. This indicates that the recent pullback remains within a healthy corrective phase.
Key Support Levels
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Immediate support: $5,141 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement)
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Secondary support: $5,000 (50% retracement and 21-day SMA cluster)
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Next downside pivot: $4,859 (38.2% retracement)
Key Resistance Levels
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Near-term resistance: $5,240 (recent local high)
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Breakout target: $5,342 (78.6% retracement level)
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Major resistance: $5,598 (previous peak)
A daily close above $5,240 could pave the way toward $5,342. A sustained move beyond that level would reaffirm the broader bullish trend and bring the $5,598 high back into focus.
US Dollar Under Pressure Amid Risk Optimism
The US Dollar (USD) remains under pressure against major currencies after strong earnings from chip giant NVIDIA Corporation boosted global risk appetite, reducing demand for traditional safe-haven assets like the Greenback.
Additional pressure stems from persistent uncertainty surrounding US trade policy and fresh selling in USD/JPY. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated Wednesday that tariffs on certain countries could rise to 15% or higher, up from the recently implemented 10%, though no further details were provided.
Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen continues to strengthen following comments from Kazuo Ueda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, who signaled that March and April meetings could be active for policy decisions. BoJ board member Hajime Takata also emphasized that the central bank should continue gradual rate hikes.
Geopolitical Risks Support Gold Ahead of US-Iran Talks
Gold is also benefiting from rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, as both nations meet in Geneva for the third round of negotiations.
Ahead of the talks, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that Iran’s refusal to discuss ballistic missile issues remains a significant obstacle.
At the same time, dovish expectations surrounding potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve continue to support non-yielding assets like gold, despite recent hawkish rhetoric from policymakers.
Market Outlook: Focus on US Data and Diplomatic Developments
Traders are closely monitoring geopolitical headlines and upcoming US Initial Jobless Claims data for fresh direction.
If the US-Iran negotiations conclude without a meaningful agreement on Iran’s nuclear program, markets could interpret the outcome negatively. A disappointing result may increase speculation about potential US military action, further boosting safe-haven demand and potentially driving gold prices higher.