Gold Awaits JacksonHole

Gold Prices Flat as Markets Await Warsh’s Jackson Hole Remarks

Gold prices were largely unchanged on Friday as investors remained on the sidelines ahead of a closely watched speech by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole Symposium, looking for fresh signals on the future direction of U.S. interest rates.

Spot gold traded flat at $4,600.19 per ounce as of 13:50 WIB, while U.S. gold futures slipped 0.3% to $4,651.41 per ounce.

Bullion recently touched a three-month high near $4,700 per ounce earlier this week, supported by concerns over U.S. fiscal policy and Treasury initiatives aimed at strengthening demand for long-term government bonds.

However, the precious metal is still on track to post a slight weekly loss after recording gains for three consecutive weeks.

Investors Await Key Jackson Hole Signals

Gold struggled to extend its recent rally as traders adopted a cautious stance ahead of Warsh’s speech, scheduled for 21:00 WIB on Friday.

The address marks Warsh’s first major appearance as Federal Reserve Chair at the annual Jackson Hole gathering, an event closely monitored by global markets for insights into inflation, monetary policy, and the Fed’s interest-rate outlook.

Recent economic data have added uncertainty to expectations for monetary easing. The latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, rose 3.7% year-over-year in July, increasing speculation that the central bank could still deliver additional rate hikes this year.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in a 34% probability of a rate increase in September and a 74% chance of a hike by December.

Higher interest rates typically pressure gold prices because the non-yielding asset becomes less attractive relative to interest-bearing investments.

Gold Supported by Broader Market Trends

Despite Friday’s muted trading, the broader environment remains supportive for gold.

The metal has benefited from lower Treasury yields and a weaker U.S. dollar in recent weeks, reducing the opportunity cost of holding bullion and making it more affordable for investors using other currencies.

As a result, gold has gained more than 13% during August, highlighting continued investor demand amid economic uncertainty and shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

Silver, Platinum, and Copper Move Higher

Among other precious metals, silver advanced 1.3% to $70.11 per ounce, while platinum climbed 1.8% to $1,882.60 per ounce.

In the industrial metals market, benchmark London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures rose 0.4% to $14,338.15 per metric ton, while U.S. copper futures added 0.2% to $6.68 per pound, supported by resilient demand expectations and broader commodity market strength.

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Gold Awaits Warsh

Gold Holds Steady Ahead of Key Jackson Hole Speech

Gold prices remained largely unchanged on Thursday as investors positioned themselves ahead of a highly anticipated speech from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium later this week.

As of 16:30 WIB, spot gold (XAU/USD) edged up 0.1% to $4,597.39 per troy ounce, while gold futures slipped 0.1% to $4,649.64 per troy ounce.

The precious metal is on track for a weekly gain of more than 1%, supported by growing expectations that the Federal Reserve could leave interest rates unchanged at its September meeting rather than raise borrowing costs to combat energy-driven inflation.

Gold Supported by Fed Rate Pause Expectations

Gold has found support from signs that policymakers may adopt a more cautious approach toward monetary tightening. While inflation remains elevated, investors increasingly believe the Fed may choose to hold rates steady in September before reassessing economic conditions later in the year.

Meanwhile, oil prices have declined over recent sessions amid hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East that could lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge continues to indicate persistent price pressures, highlighting the challenges facing policymakers.

Market analysts note that even if the Fed keeps rates unchanged next month, traders still expect additional rate hikes in the coming months. Higher interest rates are generally used to cool inflation but can also slow economic growth.

For gold, a prolonged period of elevated interest rates can reduce its appeal because bullion does not generate yield, increasing the opportunity cost of holding the metal compared with interest-bearing assets.

According to David Morrison, Senior Market Analyst at Trade Nation, gold has also developed a strong inverse relationship with the US dollar. A stronger dollar typically makes gold more expensive for international buyers, limiting demand and weighing on prices.

Warsh Speech in Focus at Jackson Hole

Investor attention is now firmly focused on Warsh’s speech at the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium on Friday.

While markets are eager for clues about the future path of US interest rates, Warsh has repeatedly indicated that he does not intend to provide the kind of detailed forward guidance offered by some of his predecessors. As a result, investors will closely analyze his comments for subtle signals regarding inflation, monetary policy, and economic growth.

Market participants are also expected to watch for any discussion about the relationship between monetary policy and the US government bond market. Interest in this topic has increased after the US Treasury recently doubled its planned buybacks of long-term government debt in an effort to ease volatility in bond markets.

ANZ analysts said the Treasury’s latest actions, combined with growing concerns over US fiscal policy, have helped sustain what is known as the “debasement trade.” This strategy involves investors buying gold as a hedge against the risk that persistent budget deficits, rising government debt, and policies aimed at suppressing long-term yields could weaken the purchasing power of the US dollar.

Treasury intervention has provided a counterbalance to concerns that higher interest rates could pressure gold prices. Despite some profit-taking this week, gold has continued to post strong gains throughout August, reflecting resilient investor demand and ongoing uncertainty surrounding the outlook for US monetary and fiscal policy.

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Gold Near Highs

Gold Holds Near Three-Month High as Softer Oil Prices and Lower Treasury Yields Support Demand

Gold prices edged lower on Wednesday but remained close to a three-month high, as easing oil prices and declining U.S. Treasury yields helped reduce inflation concerns. Meanwhile, investors continued to monitor efforts by Iran and Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key global energy shipping route.

As of 12:10 WIB, spot gold (XAU/USD) slipped 0.4% to $4,642.38 per ounce, while Gold Futures gained 0.1% to $4,699.04. Silver (XAG/USD) rose 0.7% to $69.05 per ounce, and platinum (XPT/USD) advanced 0.3% to $1,866.89. The U.S. Dollar Index also increased 0.1% to 99.01.

Lower Treasury Yields and Oil Prices Boost Gold Outlook

Gold has surged more than 7% over the past week, holding near the three-month peak reached in the previous session. The precious metal continues to find support from falling Treasury yields and softer oil prices, which have helped ease concerns that inflation could remain elevated and delay potential Federal Reserve rate cuts.

U.S. Treasury yields declined by approximately 5 to 7 basis points across the curve on Tuesday, while crude oil prices weakened amid growing optimism that tensions in the Middle East could ease. Iran and Oman reportedly held discussions regarding the creation of a temporary joint maritime corridor that could allow partial shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz to resume.

Lower oil prices are particularly important for gold because energy costs are a major driver of inflation. A sharp rise in oil prices could force the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for longer, creating headwinds for gold, which does not generate yield and often becomes less attractive compared to interest-bearing assets.

The recent rally has also renewed focus on the Treasury-driven debasement trade. Analysts at ANZ noted that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did not provide additional details regarding debt-management changes announced last week, although reports suggest the Treasury may use part of its cash balance to fund buybacks of older, higher-yielding securities.

PCE Inflation Data and Warsh Speech in Focus

Investors are now turning their attention to two major catalysts that could shape the next move in gold prices: the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report on Wednesday and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s first speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday.

The PCE report is expected to provide fresh insight into the state of the U.S. economy and inflation trends. Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins recently expressed support for keeping interest rates unchanged for now, provided inflation continues to move toward the central bank’s 2% target.

Meanwhile, Warsh’s appearance at Jackson Hole could offer greater clarity on how the Federal Reserve intends to balance persistent inflation pressures with broader economic growth concerns.

Market participants are closely watching the speech for signals about when the Fed may be willing to adjust monetary policy in response to evolving inflation dynamics. Warsh has faced criticism for providing limited guidance regarding his economic outlook, making Friday’s remarks a potentially significant event for financial markets.

Gold Debasement Trade Returns to the Spotlight

Gold’s latest rally has also revived interest in the so-called debasement trade, a key driver of bullion prices throughout 2025. Investors increasingly view gold as a hedge against sovereign debt risks and currency depreciation, particularly as concerns grow over government deficits, fiscal spending, and the long-term purchasing power of fiat currencies.

With inflation data, Federal Reserve policy signals, Treasury market developments, and geopolitical tensions all influencing sentiment, gold remains firmly positioned as one of the market’s preferred safe-haven assets.

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Gold Awaits Sanctions

Gold Pulls Back From Three-Month High as Markets Await Details of Iran Sanctions

Gold prices (XAU/USD) eased slightly from their highest level since mid-May on Monday but maintained a bullish tone, trading near $4,630 during the European session. A weaker U.S. dollar, driven by fading expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate hike and lower U.S. Treasury yields, continued to support the precious metal and reinforced the broader uptrend.

The U.S. dollar remained close to a three-month low, making non-yielding assets such as gold more attractive to investors. This environment has helped bullion extend last week’s breakout above the technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), strengthening the case for further gains.

Gold Technical Outlook Remains Bullish

Friday’s close above the key $4,615–$4,620 confluence zone—formed by the 200-day SMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the April-to-June decline—has been viewed as a fresh bullish signal for XAU/USD traders.

Technical indicators continue to favor the upside. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory and continues to trend higher, suggesting sustained bullish momentum. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 71.77 signals overbought conditions, which could limit immediate gains and trigger short-term profit-taking.

On the upside, gold faces initial resistance near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $4,684.43. A decisive break above this area could pave the way for a move toward the cycle high around $4,891.38.

On the downside, the first major support level is located near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $4,521.97, reinforced by the 200-day SMA at $4,516.88. Additional support is seen at the 50% retracement level of $4,407.86 and the 38.2% retracement at $4,293.75.

Fed Policy Expectations and Treasury Actions Influence Gold Prices

Softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data for July has reduced expectations of near-term Federal Reserve tightening. As a result, market participants increasingly expect policymakers to keep interest rates unchanged at the upcoming September 15–16 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

Adding to the market impact, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled a willingness to intervene more aggressively if bond yields rise above levels seen before the Treasury’s recent buyback announcement. Last week, the U.S. Treasury revealed plans to at least double long-term debt buyback operations beginning in September.

Bessent also indicated that individual buyback operations could exceed $4 billion, helping keep Treasury yields below multi-year highs and preventing the U.S. dollar from staging a meaningful recovery.

Despite this, markets still price in a more than 70% probability that the Federal Reserve could raise borrowing costs at least once before the end of the year, largely due to inflation risks linked to volatile oil prices.

Investors are now focusing on the upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, due later this week. Market participants will also closely monitor remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole Symposium for clues about the future path of monetary policy.

Iran Sanctions and Geopolitical Risks Keep Safe-Haven Demand Alive

Geopolitical tensions remain another key factor influencing gold prices. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to unveil what he described as the toughest sanctions package in history against Iran during a press conference on Monday.

In response, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei warned that Tehran could halt all oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz and other routes in the Persian Gulf if economic pressure continues to intensify. He further stated that any country participating in U.S. sanctions would be viewed as engaging in hostile action against Iran.

These developments have maintained a significant geopolitical risk premium in global markets. While heightened uncertainty typically supports safe-haven assets such as gold, it can also boost demand for the U.S. dollar during periods of market stress.

As traders await further details on the proposed sanctions and upcoming U.S. economic data, gold remains supported by a combination of weaker Treasury yields, a softer dollar, and persistent geopolitical uncertainty, although overbought technical conditions could limit near-term upside momentum.

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Gold Holds Firm

Gold Holds Near $4,500 as Treasury Buybacks and Fed Minutes Shape Rate Outlook

Gold prices held near the $4,500-per-troy-ounce level on Thursday after pulling back slightly from recent record highs. Falling long-term U.S. Treasury yields following the expansion of government bond buyback operations continued to support bullion, while investors digested the latest inflation concerns highlighted by the Federal Reserve.

A weaker U.S. dollar and renewed expectations for looser financial conditions also provided support for gold, although investors remained cautious as the Federal Reserve maintained a hawkish stance on inflation.

At 13:37 WIB, XAU/USD fell 0.7% to $4,491.95 per troy ounce, while Gold Futures edged 0.1% higher to $4,549.14. XAG/USD gained 0.1% to $67.08 per troy ounce, while XPT/USD declined 0.8% to $1,807.32. The U.S. Dollar Index was little changed at 98.82.

Treasury Buybacks Push Yields Lower

Gold’s latest move followed a surprise announcement from the U.S. Treasury to double the size of several liquidity-support operations involving longer-dated government bonds. Increased demand for Treasuries helped push long-term yields lower, providing fresh support for bullion after gold prices surged more than 4% on Wednesday.

The relationship between Treasury yields and gold remains important because bullion does not generate interest income. When Treasury yields rise, bonds become more attractive relative to gold. Conversely, falling yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and can encourage stronger demand for the precious metal.

The weaker U.S. dollar has also provided additional support by making dollar-denominated gold cheaper for international buyers.

U.S. Fiscal Concerns Add to Gold Support

The latest market moves come amid growing concerns over the U.S. government's fiscal position. According to the U.S. Treasury, total U.S. government debt has surpassed $40 trillion for the first time, raising fresh concerns about the sustainability of the country's fiscal outlook as government spending and interest costs continue to exceed revenues.

ANZ analysts said the larger Treasury buyback program signals policymakers' intention to reduce borrowing costs. They noted that expectations for looser financial conditions generally create a favorable environment for gold prices.

ANZ also pointed to gold's recovery after briefly falling toward $4,000 per troy ounce last month. Renewed investor demand, combined with continued central-bank purchases, has helped support the precious metal's rebound.

Fed Inflation Risks Remain in Focus

Despite lower Treasury yields, the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes showed that inflation remains a major concern for policymakers.

Minutes from the July meeting indicated that several Fed officials were prepared to consider higher interest rates, while many policymakers said rate increases could become necessary if inflation fails to move toward the central bank's 2% target.

Nevertheless, markets are pricing in a 67.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its September meeting, compared with a 32.7% probability of a rate hike, according to CME FedWatch.

The Fed's policy outlook will remain a key driver for gold prices. Higher interest rates typically weigh on bullion by increasing the potential returns available from interest-bearing assets, while a more accommodative monetary policy can improve gold's appeal.

Central Bank Demand Supports Long-Term Outlook

Geopolitical and economic uncertainty continues to provide additional support for gold's longer-term outlook. A World Gold Council survey found that 45% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves, citing rising inflation and geopolitical uncertainty as major reasons.

With Treasury yields, U.S. dollar movements, Federal Reserve policy, and central-bank demand all influencing market sentiment, gold is likely to remain highly sensitive to changes in the global interest-rate outlook. Holding near $4,500, bullion remains firmly in focus as investors assess whether lower yields can offset persistent inflation risks.

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Gold Holds $4,400

 

Gold Holds Below $4,400 as Bond Yields and Oil Prices Weigh

Gold prices edged lower on Tuesday as rising US Treasury yields and higher oil prices weighed on the precious metal, while traders awaited the Federal Reserve's July policy meeting minutes for fresh clues about the outlook for interest rates.

At 16:54 WIB, spot gold fell 0.5% to $4,393.91 per troy ounce, while gold futures also declined 0.5% to $4,449.92 per troy ounce.

Gold retreated from its recent rally as the 10-year US Treasury yield moved higher, increasing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding precious metal. Higher bond yields can reduce demand for gold as investors seek relatively more attractive returns from interest-bearing assets.

The US dollar also remained broadly stable after weakening slightly over the past week. A stronger dollar can weigh on gold prices by making the precious metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

Higher Oil Prices Add to Inflation Concerns

Meanwhile, oil prices advanced amid renewed geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. Reports indicated that Iran could adopt a more aggressive military posture if diplomatic efforts with the United States fail, while Washington declined to extend a temporary ceasefire agreement that expired on Monday.

Persistent uncertainty surrounding the conflict has kept energy markets volatile and raised concerns that higher oil prices could fuel another wave of inflation. A renewed increase in inflation expectations could complicate the Federal Reserve's plans for interest-rate cuts.

Fed Rate Expectations Remain in Focus

Despite the pressure from higher yields and oil prices, markets have significantly adjusted their expectations for a September rate move following recent US economic data.

Unexpected job losses, softer-than-expected consumer inflation, and weaker July retail sales have influenced expectations for the Federal Reserve's next policy decision. According to CME FedWatch, markets currently price in roughly a 63% probability that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged in September, up from around 52% a week earlier.

Interest-rate swaps also no longer fully price in a Fed rate hike before the end of 2026.

Investors are now focused on the release of the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes on Wednesday. The minutes could provide additional insight into policymakers' views on inflation, economic conditions, and the appropriate path for interest rates.

Central Bank Demand Supports Gold Outlook

Beyond monetary policy, gold's recovery above the key $4,000 per troy ounce level in recent weeks has been supported by stronger central bank purchases, particularly from China.

Analysts at ANZ also see long-term support from continued central bank diversification. Global central banks purchased 244 tons of gold in the first quarter of 2026, marking the highest quarterly total since the fourth quarter of 2024.

China added another 8 tons of gold in April, its largest monthly purchase since December 2024. Continued geopolitical tensions and efforts by central banks to diversify their reserves could keep gold demand elevated.

ANZ expects deteriorating international relations to sustain demand for reserve diversification and forecasts gold prices to reach $5,200 per troy ounce by the end of 2026.

Gold Price Outlook

Gold remains under pressure below $4,400 as higher Treasury yields and rising oil prices create near-term headwinds. However, expectations for Federal Reserve policy, strong central bank demand, geopolitical risks, and reserve diversification could continue to provide longer-term support for the precious metal.

The upcoming Fed minutes will therefore be closely watched for signals that could determine the next major move in XAU/USD.

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Gold Under Pressure

 

Gold Holds Below $4,400 as USD Stabilizes After Softer CPI

Gold remains under pressure below the $4,400 level, extending its intraday pullback from the June 5 high near $4,450 reached earlier on Thursday. The precious metal traded lower during the European session as the initial market reaction to signs of easing US inflation quickly faded. Investors remain concerned that higher energy prices could reignite inflationary pressures, helping the US Dollar (USD) halt its decline.

From a technical perspective, the previous day's close above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the subsequent move above the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the April-June decline continue to support XAU/USD buyers. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator also remains elevated, reinforcing the constructive momentum.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 67.44, approaching overbought territory. This suggests that upside momentum remains intact but could be nearing stretched conditions.

A sustained move above the recent swing high could face initial resistance near the 200-day SMA at $4,502. This level is closely followed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $4,525.18. A decisive break above this area could open the door toward the next resistance levels at $4,683 and $4,885.

On the downside, a break below the 100-day SMA could expose gold to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $4,302, followed by the 23.6% retracement at $4,164.38. Further losses could bring the more significant structural floor near $3,941.47 into focus.

Softer US CPI Offers Limited Support for Gold

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Wednesday that headline US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased in line with market expectations, declining from 3.5% to 3.4% year-over-year in July.

Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.2% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year, matching consensus forecasts.

The softer inflation data followed weaker-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figures released last Friday. Together, the data could give the Federal Reserve greater flexibility to keep interest rates unchanged in September, offering some support to gold.

However, investors remain concerned about inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices amid the ongoing US-Iran standoff.

President Donald Trump again claimed that the US has "full control" over the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran has pledged to keep the strategically important waterway closed until its demands are met. Meanwhile, Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen have increased attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait, including targeting Saudi-linked shipping.

The heightened geopolitical risks have pushed up war-risk premiums and provided some support for crude oil prices.

Fed Rate Expectations and USD Limit Gold's Upside

Persistent energy-price risks continue to fuel concerns about inflation and strengthen the argument for a more cautious Federal Reserve policy stance.

According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, traders continue to price in nearly an 80% probability that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs in 2026. These expectations have helped the US Dollar rebound from its post-CPI swing low and exerted additional pressure on gold.

Nevertheless, gold would likely need a sustained break below $4,400 to strengthen the case for a deeper corrective decline.

US PPI and Jobless Claims in Focus

Traders are now turning their attention to Thursday's US economic calendar, which includes the Producer Price Index (PPI) and weekly Initial Jobless Claims.

The data, along with speeches from influential Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members, could influence USD demand and provide fresh direction for gold prices.

Meanwhile, further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis could continue to drive volatility across global financial markets, potentially creating short-term trading opportunities in XAU/USD.

Gold Price Outlook

Gold's broader technical structure remains constructive while prices hold above the 100-day SMA, but elevated RSI readings and renewed USD strength could limit near-term gains. Traders will closely monitor $4,400, the 100-day SMA, upcoming US inflation data, Fed rate expectations, and geopolitical developments for the next major directional move in gold.

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Gold Holds $4,400

Gold Holds Above $4,400 Near Two-Month High as Traders Await U.S. CPI

Gold (XAU/USD) maintained a bullish tone above the $4,400 level during the first half of the European session, remaining close to its highest level since June 5, reached on Tuesday. Traders are now awaiting the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for fresh clues about the Federal Reserve’s future policy path amid inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices. The data could influence the U.S. Dollar (USD) and provide a significant catalyst for the non-yielding precious metal.

Gold is trading around its 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), but remains capped below a strong resistance zone. The area begins with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the April–June decline and extends toward the 200-day SMA at $4,500.51. This suggests that buyers need a decisive breakout above this zone to regain control of the market.

On the downside, immediate support is provided by the 100-day SMA at $4,388.33. Additional support levels are located at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $4,298.48 and the 23.6% retracement at $4,161.40. A sustained break below these levels could expose the broader base around $3,939.81.

Oil Prices Rise as Hormuz Reopening Hopes Fade

Ahead of the key U.S. inflation data, oil prices remained firm near their highest level in one and a half weeks as expectations for an imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz faded.

Mojtaba Khamenei, an adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader, said the strategically important waterway would not reopen until the United States met Tehran’s demands. At the same time, Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen intensified attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb, particularly targeting ships linked to Saudi Arabia.

The latest developments have kept the geopolitical risk premium elevated and supported crude oil prices, adding to concerns about inflation and potentially complicating the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate outlook.

Analysts at Commerzbank highlighted that hopes for a new agreement between Iran and the United States and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have weakened following a hardening of diplomatic positions over the weekend.

The bank noted that Iran has established conditions for reopening the strait, including demands for reparations, while U.S. President Donald Trump has responded with additional demands for compensation for victims of the conflict.

According to Commerzbank, the escalation in mutual demands highlights the declining likelihood of a near-term agreement to restore full transit through the key shipping corridor. This, in turn, reinforces the risk premium currently embedded in energy markets.

Fed Rate Expectations Keep USD Supported

The geopolitical backdrop is offsetting signs of cooling in the U.S. labor market and strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates.

According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, traders are still pricing in a probability of more than 75% that the U.S. central bank will raise borrowing costs at least once by the end of the year.

This outlook continues to support elevated U.S. Treasury yields. Combined with persistent geopolitical uncertainty, higher yields could strengthen demand for the U.S. Dollar as a safe-haven asset and potentially limit further gains in gold.

Meanwhile, tensions in Asia added another layer of geopolitical risk. North Korea launched ballistic missiles early in the day, just days before a major joint military exercise involving South Korea and the United States.

Taiwan also criticized plans for naval exercises between China and an Indonesian warship off the island’s eastern coast.

The combination of geopolitical tensions, elevated Treasury yields, and USD strength could encourage caution among gold buyers and make it difficult for XAU/USD to extend the strong bullish momentum seen over the past week.

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Gold Pullback Deepens

Gold Price Pulls Back From June 5 High, Falls Below $4,400 as Inflation Fuels Fed Rate Hike Bets

Gold (XAU/USD) extended its daily corrective decline from its highest level since June 5, falling to a fresh intraday low near the $4,350 area during the first half of the European session on Tuesday.

Despite disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data released on Friday, traders continue to price in the possibility that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could raise borrowing costs by the end of the year amid renewed inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices. This outlook tends to weigh on non-yielding gold and encourages traders to lock in some profits, particularly following the precious metal's strong rally over the past week.

Gold Technical Outlook Remains Constructive

From a technical perspective, a daily breakout above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the April–June move suggests that buyers remain in control.

Momentum indicators also support the constructive technical structure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently just below overbought territory at 68.89, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram continues to expand in positive territory. This points to sustained upside momentum, although gold prices remain capped below the 200-day SMA at $4,498.

On the downside, a deeper pullback could expose the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $4,297, followed by the 23.6% retracement at $4,162. Further losses could bring the structural floor near $3,945 into focus.

On the upside, the $4,400 psychological level, followed by the daily swing high near $4,435, represents the first key resistance zone. A sustained break above this area could open the door toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $4,514.92.

Further gains could target the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $4,669, followed by the cycle high around $4,866.98.

Iran Tensions and Oil Prices Raise Inflation Concerns

Meanwhile, Iran has rejected the possibility of future negotiations with US President Donald Trump, saying it would wait until his term ends on January 20, 2029, before resuming talks. The development has dampened hopes for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Elsewhere, traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait remains disrupted amid an Iran-backed Houthi blockade targeting Saudi Arabia. The situation triggered a sharp increase in crude oil prices overnight and revived concerns about inflation, reinforcing expectations for a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance.

The prospect of tighter monetary policy continues to support higher US Treasury yields. Rising yields can strengthen the US Dollar (USD) while putting additional pressure on non-yielding gold.

US CPI and PPI Data in Focus

Traders are now awaiting the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, for further clues about the Federal Reserve's future policy path.

The upcoming inflation reports could play a crucial role in shaping short-term US Dollar dynamics and determining the next major move in gold prices.

At the same time, further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis could continue to drive volatility across global financial markets, potentially creating fresh trading opportunities around the XAU/USD pair.

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Gold Buyers Hesitate

 

Gold Buyers Hesitate Near $4,350 as Iran Risks and Fed Rate Hike Bets Support USD

Gold (XAU/USD) reversed an early decline on Monday and climbed toward the upper end of its daily range, trading near the $4,350 area ahead of the European session. However, the precious metal remained below the highest level since June 17, reached on Friday following the release of the latest US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

The US monthly employment report showed that the economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July, while the previous month's figure was sharply revised lower to a 20,000-job decline from an initial 57,000 increase. The weaker labor-market data reinforced signs of slowing economic activity and reduced the Federal Reserve's case for another interest-rate hike.

The softer employment figures weighed on the US Dollar (USD) and provided support for non-yielding gold. Nevertheless, persistent geopolitical risks and renewed expectations of tighter US monetary policy are limiting the precious metal's upside potential.

XAU/USD Technical Outlook Remains Cautious

The broader technical bias for XAU/USD remains relatively unchanged, with gold still trading below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $4,390 and the 200-day SMA around $4,496.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains positive, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds in bullish territory without reaching overbought conditions, currently around 64.

Gold has also reclaimed the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-June decline near $4,303.27. However, higher Fibonacci retracement levels and longer-term moving averages remain overhead, suggesting that the latest recovery could remain vulnerable to a reversal.

On the upside, immediate resistance is located around the 100-day SMA near $4,390, followed by the 50% Fibonacci retracement at approximately $4,414. A sustained daily close above these levels could pave the way toward the 200-day SMA around $4,496 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near $4,525.

Further gains could expose the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement near $4,683, followed by the latest cycle high around $4,884.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near $4,303, followed by the 23.6% level around $4,166. A deeper correction could bring the $3,944.21 support zone back into focus if sellers regain control.

Iran Tensions Support the US Dollar

The initial market reaction to weaker US employment data proved short-lived as uncertainty surrounding the Middle East crisis and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz provided some safe-haven demand for the US Dollar.

Iran reiterated its conditions for the full reopening of the strategically important waterway, including an end to the US naval blockade, the lifting of sanctions, and compensation for wartime damage.

Tehran has also rejected direct talks with Washington, citing alleged violations of the temporary ceasefire agreement reached in June. The ongoing uncertainty keeps geopolitical risk premiums elevated and supports the USD, potentially limiting further gains in gold.

Oil Prices and Fed Expectations Remain Key Drivers

Meanwhile, the US-Iran standoff has provided support for crude oil prices. Investors remain concerned that higher energy costs could reignite inflationary pressures and force major central banks to maintain a more hawkish monetary-policy stance.

The CME Group FedWatch Tool also indicates that traders continue to see a meaningful probability of the Federal Reserve raising borrowing costs later this year. Such expectations can keep US Treasury yields elevated, supporting the US Dollar and creating additional headwinds for gold.

However, traders may prefer to remain cautious ahead of the latest US inflation figures due later this week.

According to TD Securities, the risk of a rate hike remains present, although upcoming inflation data could significantly alter market expectations. The firm expects headline and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings of approximately 0.15% and 0.20% month-over-month, respectively, which could further reduce expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike.

TD Securities also noted that much of the recent increase in interest rates has been driven by expectations surrounding Fed policy. If rate-hike expectations fade, Treasury yields could move lower, potentially weakening the US Dollar and providing renewed support for gold.

Gold Price Outlook

Gold remains caught between opposing forces. A weaker US labor market and the possibility of lower interest rates are supportive for XAU/USD, while geopolitical uncertainty, higher oil prices, elevated Treasury yields, and lingering Fed rate-hike expectations are limiting the upside.

The upcoming US CPI report will therefore be a key catalyst for gold prices. A softer inflation reading could strengthen expectations for a more dovish Federal Reserve and help XAU/USD challenge the $4,390–$4,414 resistance zone. Conversely, stronger-than-expected inflation could boost the US Dollar and Treasury yields, potentially sending gold toward its key support levels.

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Gold Prices Advance

 

Gold Prices Rise as Middle East Risks Offset Strong Dollar Ahead of U.S. Payrolls

Gold prices extended their gains on Friday, building on the previous session's rally as investors weighed escalating geopolitical tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz against expectations for the Federal Reserve's next policy move. Market participants are also awaiting the highly anticipated U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for fresh direction.

As of 12:04 WIB, spot gold (XAU/USD) climbed 0.6% to $4,264.22 per ounce, while Gold Futures gained 0.6% to $4,323.07. Meanwhile, silver (XAG/USD) advanced 1.2% to $62.26 per ounce, and platinum (XPT/USD) rose 0.6% to $1,740.05.

Hormuz Tensions Keep Safe-Haven Demand Elevated

Geopolitical uncertainty remains the primary catalyst for gold after Iranian media reported that Tehran had targeted what it described as "hostile targets" in the Strait of Hormuz and was preparing legislation to ban U.S. and Israeli vessels from passing through the strategic shipping lane.

The latest developments followed earlier statements from Iranian officials indicating that an Oman-mediated agreement aimed at reopening the vital maritime corridor was nearing completion.

Separately, Yemen's Houthi movement claimed responsibility for a major attack on Saudi-backed government forces, raising concerns that the conflict could spread across the wider Middle East.

Despite the renewed escalation, U.S. President Donald Trump said he believes the conflict will end "fairly soon" and reiterated that the United States remains in control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Gold briefly surged above the $4,300 level on Thursday as optimism over a potential Hormuz agreement boosted safe-haven buying. However, the rally lost momentum after renewed geopolitical tensions reignited concerns that higher energy prices could fuel inflation, strengthening the case for a more hawkish Federal Reserve.

Markets are currently pricing in roughly a 60% probability of a September interest rate hike after the Financial Times reported that Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is prepared to raise borrowing costs if inflation remains elevated in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hovered around the 100 level, offering little additional direction for precious metals.

U.S. Payrolls, Fed Outlook, and China Demand in Focus

Investors are now turning their attention to Friday's U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is expected to be the next major catalyst shaping expectations for future Federal Reserve policy.

St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem warned that policymakers cannot ignore persistently high inflation while waiting for stronger productivity growth to eventually ease price pressures, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will remain cautious.

At the same time, robust investment demand from China continues to provide underlying support for gold prices. Chinese gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have recorded 14 consecutive sessions of net inflows, helping stabilize the precious metal despite broader macroeconomic uncertainty.

According to Tony Sycamore, Senior Market Analyst at IG, gold's recent breakout suggests the market has likely confirmed a price bottom near the late-June low of $3,942, after earlier price action briefly cast doubt on the bullish outlook.

Sycamore noted that maintaining support above this level would strengthen the case for an extended rally toward the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $4,489. A decisive breakout above that resistance could pave the way for a broader recovery toward the psychologically important $5,000 level.

He added that Friday's U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report will likely determine whether gold's latest breakout develops into a sustained bullish trend or loses momentum in the near term.

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Gold Hits High

Gold Climbs to One-Month High as Hormuz Reopening Hopes Ease Inflation Concerns

Gold prices (XAU/USD) surged to a one-month high on Wednesday as renewed optimism over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude oil prices lower, easing inflation concerns and improving sentiment toward the precious metal. At the time of writing, XAU/USD was trading near US$4,155, up nearly 1.90% on the day.

Gold Technical Outlook Remains Constructive

From a technical perspective, gold has reclaimed its position above the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at US$4,064, signaling a constructive short-term outlook. However, the rally remains capped just below the 50-day SMA at US$4,160, suggesting that the broader trend has yet to shift decisively into bullish territory.

Momentum indicators continue to strengthen. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed to around 55, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory, indicating that buyers are gradually regaining control despite facing near-term resistance.

On the upside, immediate resistance is located at the 50-day SMA near US$4,160, followed by the key horizontal barrier at US$4,200. A daily close above this zone could pave the way for a move toward the 100-day SMA around US$4,398.

On the downside, initial support stands at the 21-day SMA at US$4,064, followed by the major psychological level of US$4,000. A sustained break below this level would signal the start of a deeper corrective phase.

Hormuz Optimism Lifts Gold Despite Higher Rate Uncertainty

Gold extended its gains after renewed optimism emerged over a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a development expected to stabilize global energy supplies and reduce inflationary pressure.

U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington had held "very good discussions" with Iran during negotiations on Tuesday, adding that the Strait of Hormuz "will be opened very soon."

Meanwhile, Axios reported that the United States, Iran, and Oman were close to reaching a temporary agreement that could be announced as early as Wednesday. The proposed deal would establish a 60-day interim arrangement designed to restore commercial shipping through the strategically important waterway.

Analysts at ING noted that lower energy prices have eased some inflation concerns, creating a more supportive backdrop for gold. However, they emphasized that investors remain focused on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook following last week's meeting, leaving bullion caught between improving geopolitical sentiment and continued uncertainty over the path of U.S. interest rates.

Can Gold Extend Its Rally?

Despite improving market sentiment, the U.S. Dollar has weakened only modestly as traders await concrete evidence that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will fully normalize. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remained broadly flat near 99.85.

At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields have retreated from recent highs but continue to trade at elevated levels, reflecting lingering inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer. This remains a key factor limiting further upside in gold prices.

A deeper decline in crude oil prices—potentially reducing expectations of a more hawkish Fed—may be required for gold to extend its current rally.

Looking ahead, investors will closely monitor upcoming U.S. labor market data, including the ADP Employment Change report on Wednesday and the closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. These releases are expected to provide fresh clues about the Federal Reserve's next policy move and could determine the next major direction for gold prices.

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Gold Breaks $4,200

Gold Surges Above $4,200 as Hormuz Deal Hopes Ease Fed Rate Hike Expectations

Gold prices rallied more than 2% on Wednesday, breaking above the key $4,200 per troy ounce level as growing optimism over a temporary agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz eased inflation concerns and prompted investors to scale back expectations for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.

As of 14:07 WIB, XAU/USD climbed 2.1% to $4,162.79 per ounce, while Gold Futures advanced 1.7% to $4,222.92. Other precious metals also posted strong gains, with XAG/USD rising 3.2% to $61.45 per ounce and XPT/USD adding 1.8% to $1,768.95.

Gold Gains Momentum as Hormuz Reopening Prospects Reduce Inflation Risks

Gold extended its rally for a third consecutive session after signs of progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz helped ease fears that prolonged disruptions to global energy supplies would keep inflation elevated.

Qatar announced that a proposal had been drafted to restore shipping through the strategic waterway. Meanwhile, Axios reported that Washington, Tehran, and Oman were close to reaching an agreement, with U.S. officials aiming for an announcement as early as Wednesday.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also stated that a deal to reopen the strait could be finalized as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday, boosting expectations that global energy markets could soon stabilize.

The prospect of lower oil prices encouraged traders to further reduce expectations for tighter Federal Reserve monetary policy. Markets are now fully pricing in only one U.S. interest rate hike before the end of the year, down from two hikes anticipated just a week earlier.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) edged lower, making dollar-denominated gold more attractive to overseas buyers and providing additional support for bullion prices.

Fed Policy Outlook and Chinese Gold Demand Remain Key Market Drivers

Despite Wednesday's strong rebound, gold remains more than 20% below the highs reached after the U.S.-Iran conflict escalated in late February, when soaring oil prices fueled inflation concerns and strengthened expectations that interest rates would remain higher for longer.

Although the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting last week, three policymakers dissented in favor of another rate increase.

Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said she remains "open-minded" about the policy outlook amid mixed signals on whether current monetary conditions are sufficiently restrictive.

Separately, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid argued that higher interest rates may still be necessary to restore price stability, warning investors not to assume that inflationary pressures caused by supply shocks will fade quickly.

Gold has also received renewed support from China in recent weeks. According to Bloomberg data, Chinese gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded inflows for 14 consecutive trading sessions through Monday—the longest streak since March—indicating that institutional investors have returned to the market after months of outflows.

The renewed buying has helped keep gold prices firmly above the psychologically important $4,000 per ounce level, reinforcing expectations that resilient Chinese demand will continue to provide a cushion for the precious metal market as investors await clearer signals on the Federal Reserve's next policy move.

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Gold Awaits Payrolls

Gold Price Holds Steady as US Jobs Data and Middle East Risks Keep Investors on Edge

Gold prices traded slightly higher on Tuesday as investors prepared for a busy week of U.S. labor market data while closely monitoring escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and their potential impact on inflation and the Federal Reserve's interest rate path.

As of 14:06 GMT, XAU/USD was up 0.1% at $4,058.99 per troy ounce, while Gold Futures climbed 0.6% to $4,114.50.

Other precious metals also advanced, with XAG/USD (silver) gaining 1.3% to $58.95 per ounce, and XPT/USD (platinum) rising 1.1% to $1,648.23.

Gold Trapped Between Geopolitical Risks and Fed Expectations

Gold remained confined within its recent trading range as investors balanced ongoing geopolitical uncertainty against concerns that rising energy prices could keep U.S. interest rates elevated for longer.

Brent crude oil surged more than 20% in July after renewed military clashes between the United States and Iran, while attacks on commercial oil tankers near Oman intensified concerns over regional energy supplies.

Higher oil prices have fueled fresh inflation fears, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain its restrictive monetary policy for an extended period.

Adding to market uncertainty, Iran stated on Monday that no negotiations with the United States were currently underway and that no diplomatic meetings had been scheduled, contradicting comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, who suggested talks could resume soon.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) traded near the 100 level with little movement, offering limited directional support for bullion prices.

Investors Await Key US Employment Reports

Market participants are now focused on a series of critical U.S. labor market releases this week, including the ADP private payrolls report and Friday's highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

The data are expected to provide fresh clues about whether the Federal Reserve will need to tighten monetary policy further before the end of the year.

Recent hawkish remarks from three voting Federal Reserve officials have strengthened expectations for another potential rate hike following last week's policy meeting. In addition, New York Fed President John Williams reiterated that policymakers remain prepared to raise interest rates again if inflation continues to exceed target levels.

Those comments have reinforced expectations that higher interest rates could remain in place for longer, limiting upside momentum for gold.

IG: Gold Needs Break Above $4,080 to Confirm Recovery

According to Tony Sycamore, Senior Market Analyst at IG, gold continues to trade sideways within the $4,000–$4,200 range that has contained prices for the past month.

Sycamore noted that bullion must first break above the key resistance level near $4,080, followed by the early July high around $4,202, to confirm that a broader recovery is underway.

A sustained move above those levels could pave the way for a rally toward the 200-day moving average, currently located near $4,490.

Until that breakout occurs, however, Sycamore believes the balance of risks still favors another test of the late-June low near $3,942, highlighting continued market caution despite gold's recent stability.

With geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns, and upcoming U.S. employment data all influencing sentiment, traders are expected to remain cautious as they assess the next major catalyst for gold prices and the broader precious metals market.

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Gold Holds Steady

Gold Price Trades Below $4,100 as Stronger US Dollar Offsets Dovish Fed Rate Expectations

Gold prices (XAU/USD) struggled to build on a modest bullish gap at the weekly open, remaining below the $4,100 mark ahead of the European session. A moderate rebound in the US Dollar (USD) from its lowest level since June 17 capped gains in the precious metal, although the dollar's upside appears limited by easing expectations for additional Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and renewed optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran peace agreement.

Gold Price Outlook Remains Bearish Despite Consolidation

From a technical perspective, XAU/USD continues to trade within a familiar consolidation range below its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Given the recent decline, this price action still reflects a bearish consolidation phase, suggesting that the path of least resistance remains to the downside unless buyers reclaim key resistance levels.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains in positive territory with a reading near 11.6, signaling tentative bullish momentum. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) stands at 47.1, indicating neutral market conditions and limited directional conviction.

As a result, any further upside is likely to face strong resistance around the $4,100 level.

Key Resistance and Support Levels to Watch

A sustained break above $4,100 would expose the upper boundary of the current trading range just below $4,200. If buyers successfully clear that barrier, gold could extend its recovery toward the 200-day SMA near $4,490.33, a technically significant level that would weaken the prevailing bearish outlook and signal the potential for a broader bullish reversal.

On the downside, immediate support is located around the recent swing low between $3,976 and $4,000, where buyers previously stepped into the market. A decisive break below this support zone would reinforce bearish momentum and increase the likelihood of a deeper decline in XAU/USD.

US-Iran Peace Hopes and OPEC+ Decision Ease Inflation Concerns

Market sentiment improved after US President Donald Trump announced that a planned military strike against Iran had been canceled, stating that Middle Eastern allies had reached the framework of an agreement regarding Tehran's nuclear program and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump also revealed that US and Iranian officials would resume negotiations on Monday afternoon, raising optimism that a diplomatic solution could bring an end to the five-month regional conflict.

Adding to the positive sentiment, OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to increase crude oil production in September, triggering a sharp decline in oil prices. Lower energy prices eased inflation concerns and reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve will need to maintain an aggressive tightening cycle.

The combination of softer inflation expectations and a weaker outlook for Fed rate hikes could limit further gains in the US dollar while providing underlying support for gold prices.

Traders Await US Economic Data and Nonfarm Payrolls

Despite the improving macro backdrop for gold, traders remain reluctant to establish fresh bearish positions against the US dollar as geopolitical risks in the Middle East continue to create uncertainty across global financial markets.

Investors are now closely monitoring incoming geopolitical headlines, which could drive volatility and influence demand for safe-haven assets such as the US dollar and gold.

Attention also turns to a busy week of high-impact US economic data. The schedule begins with the ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday, followed by several labor market indicators throughout the week.

The primary focus will be Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is expected to provide fresh insight into the strength of the US labor market and shape market expectations for the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision. Stronger-than-expected employment data could support the US dollar and weigh on gold, while weaker figures may reinforce expectations for a more dovish Fed and provide additional upside for the precious metal.

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