Oil Pressures Gold

Gold Prices Slip as Rising Oil Fuels Inflation Concerns and Supports Stronger US Dollar

Gold prices declined on Thursday as another surge in crude oil prices reignited inflation concerns, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates elevated for longer. The stronger US dollar and higher Treasury yield outlook reduced demand for non-yielding assets such as gold.

As of 08:31 WIB, spot gold (XAU/USD) fell 0.59% to $4,036.62 per troy ounce, while Gold Futures slipped 0.24% to $4,042.10.

Softer US Inflation Eases Pressure on the Federal Reserve

US producer prices unexpectedly fell 0.3% in June, defying market expectations for no monthly change. The weaker Producer Price Index (PPI) followed softer Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released earlier this week, reinforcing signs that underlying inflationary pressures are easing.

The back-to-back inflation reports initially strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may delay further interest rate hikes, providing a supportive backdrop for precious metals. However, investors largely overlooked the backward-looking inflation data as renewed conflict in the Middle East pushed crude oil prices higher for a fourth consecutive session.

The renewed rally in oil has revived concerns that rising energy costs could feed into future inflation, limiting the Fed's flexibility to ease monetary policy despite recent progress in reducing price pressures.

While lower inflation would normally weaken the US dollar and support gold by reducing expectations of tighter monetary policy, the sharp rebound in oil prices has cast doubt on whether the current disinflation trend can be sustained.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated this week that policymakers remain committed to bringing inflation back to the central bank's 2% target, emphasizing their readiness to adjust interest rates if price pressures prove more persistent than expected. He also dismissed concerns that rapid investment in artificial intelligence alone would trigger broader inflationary pressures.

Meanwhile, Fed Governor Lisa Cook said she would support additional policy action if inflation remains elevated, while New York Fed President John Williams stated that current interest rates are "well positioned" to return inflation to target, highlighting the central bank's cautious approach despite encouraging inflation data.

Oil Rally Revives Inflation Risks

Despite improving inflation data, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to keep investors on edge.

The United States launched a fifth consecutive day of strikes against Iranian targets, while President Donald Trump pledged to intensify military operations until Tehran halts attacks on commercial shipping and reopens the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) extended their recent gains as markets monitored potential supply disruptions through the critical shipping route, fueling concerns that higher energy prices could once again drive broader inflation.

A sustained increase in oil prices could complicate the Federal Reserve's policy outlook by raising the risk that inflation remains above target for longer. Should policymakers maintain higher interest rates for an extended period, stronger US Treasury yields and a firmer US dollar would likely weigh on gold demand while making the precious metal more expensive for overseas buyers.

Analysts at ANZ said the key question is whether the Federal Reserve views the recent surge in energy prices as a temporary supply shock or as a development that could spill over into broader inflation, potentially influencing future monetary policy decisions.

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Gold Eases Lower

 

Gold Prices Slip as Oil Rally Revives Inflation Concerns and Clouds Fed Outlook

Gold prices edged lower on Thursday as investors reassessed the inflation outlook following another surge in crude oil prices. Rising energy costs have renewed concerns that inflationary pressures could persist, complicating the Federal Reserve's policy path despite softer-than-expected U.S. consumer inflation data released earlier this week.

Gold Declines as Investors Shift Focus to Inflation Risks

As of 1:15 PM WIB, spot gold (XAU/USD) fell 0.6% to $4,028.43 per troy ounce, while Gold Futures slipped 0.8% to $4,035.50. Meanwhile, silver (XAG/USD) dropped 0.5% to $58.35 per ounce, and platinum (XPT/USD) eased 0.1% to $1,629.89 per ounce.

The pullback follows a strong rally earlier in the week, when gold climbed more than 2% after weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a less aggressive monetary stance.

Softer U.S. Inflation Supports Gold, but Rising Oil Prices Offset Optimism

June's U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded the first monthly decline in consumer prices since 2020, easing inflation concerns and pushing Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar lower. The softer inflation report prompted traders to reduce expectations of near-term Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, providing significant support for precious metals.

However, market sentiment quickly shifted as crude oil prices resumed their upward momentum. Investors are increasingly concerned that higher energy costs could reignite inflationary pressures, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for longer than previously anticipated.

Oil Rally Keeps Federal Reserve Policy in the Spotlight

Crude oil prices extended gains for a third consecutive session after President Donald Trump maintained a naval blockade around Iranian ports and warned of further military escalation unless Tehran returned to negotiations. The heightened geopolitical tensions have intensified concerns over global energy supplies, driving oil prices higher.

Persistently elevated energy prices could complicate the Federal Reserve's efforts to bring inflation back to its long-term target. While gold is traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, higher interest rates and stronger bond yields typically reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.

Federal Reserve officials have welcomed the recent moderation in inflation but continue to emphasize that additional evidence is needed before they can confidently conclude that inflation is moving sustainably toward the central bank's target.

ANZ Sees Limited Near-Term Upside for Gold

Analysts at ANZ expect gold prices to remain range-bound in the short term as expectations for at least one Federal Reserve rate hike this year continue to cap upside momentum. Nevertheless, they believe buying interest is likely to re-emerge during deeper price corrections, arguing that the precious metal's long-term fundamentals remain firmly supportive.

Markets Await U.S. Producer Price Data

Investors are now turning their attention to the upcoming U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which could provide fresh insights into inflation trends and the Federal Reserve's next policy move.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets currently assign a 58% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September, down from approximately 76% before Tuesday's softer CPI report, highlighting the market's evolving expectations for U.S. monetary policy.

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Gold Above $4000

 

Gold Recovers Above $4,000 as Markets Await US CPI Data and Fed Chair Warsh Testimony

Gold prices extended their intraday recovery on Tuesday, climbing back above the $4,000 mark after touching their lowest level in nearly two weeks during the Asian session. The rebound was supported by a pause in the US dollar's two-day rally as investors turned cautious ahead of the release of the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's testimony before Congress.

The weaker US dollar provided short-term support for bullion, although broader market sentiment remains cautious as traders assess the outlook for inflation and future Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.

Gold Technical Outlook Remains Bearish Despite Recovery

From a technical perspective, gold continues to trade well below its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), maintaining a broader bearish outlook within a descending channel pattern.

Momentum indicators suggest selling pressure is beginning to ease. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned slightly positive, indicating that bearish momentum is fading. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains around 39, below the neutral 50 level, suggesting that the current rebound is still fragile rather than the start of a confirmed bullish reversal.

Any further upside is likely to face strong selling pressure around the $4,100 resistance level. A sustained breakout above that area could trigger short-covering activity and lift gold toward the upper boundary of the descending channel near $4,221.

Additional buying momentum could then target the key 200-day SMA at $4,495.01. A decisive move above this level would invalidate the current bearish outlook.

On the downside, immediate support is located near $3,761.01, around the lower boundary of the channel. A decisive break below this level could accelerate losses and expose deeper downside risks.

US CPI and Fed Testimony Take Center Stage

Escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, combined with growing expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike, have continued to support the US dollar, prompting traders to remain cautious about chasing further gains in gold.

Markets are now focused on the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) later today. Headline inflation is expected to ease, largely reflecting lower gasoline prices during June. However, investors will pay closer attention to the Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is considered the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of underlying inflation trends.

Adding to market volatility, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver his first semiannual monetary policy testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. His comments are expected to provide fresh guidance on the Fed's interest rate outlook and could significantly influence short-term movements in both the US dollar and gold prices.

Middle East Conflict Keeps Inflation Risks Elevated

Meanwhile, renewed geopolitical tensions continue to support safe-haven demand while also boosting energy prices.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and escalating military confrontation between the United States and Iran pushed crude oil prices to their highest level in nearly a month, reigniting concerns that higher energy costs could keep inflation elevated and force the Federal Reserve to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer.

The US military launched a third consecutive night of strikes against Iranian targets after President Donald Trump reinstated a naval blockade on Iranian ports. In response, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targeted US facilities across the region, while two UAE oil tankers were reportedly struck by Iranian cruise missiles in the Strait of Hormuz.

The escalating conflict prompted traders to quickly price in additional geopolitical risk, strengthening demand for the US dollar.

Despite gold's latest rebound, the overall fundamental backdrop suggests that rallies may continue to attract sellers. As a result, the XAU/USD pair remains vulnerable to another decline toward its year-to-date low around $3,943–$3,942, last recorded on June 30.

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Gold Below $4100

Gold Price Trims Losses but Remains Below $4,100 as Hawkish Fed Bets Limit Recovery

Gold prices recovered part of their intraday losses during the first half of the European session on Tuesday, although the precious metal remained under pressure for a second consecutive day and continued trading below the key $4,100 level. A modest pullback in the US Dollar (USD) provided temporary support for bullion, but the broader market backdrop continued to favor sellers, limiting any meaningful upside.

From a technical perspective, XAU/USD remains firmly below its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) while continuing to trade within a descending parallel channel, reinforcing the prevailing bearish trend. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the 40 mark, suggesting weak momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains slightly positive despite easing from recent highs. These indicators point to only moderate downside momentum but fail to signal a sustained bullish reversal.

Gold Technical Outlook: Key Support and Resistance Levels

The first major support level is located at the psychologically significant $4,000 mark, followed by the year-to-date low near $3,942. A decisive break below this area could expose the lower boundary of the descending channel around $3,782.83, where bargain hunters may attempt to stabilize prices if selling pressure intensifies.

On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at the upper boundary of the channel near $4,291.51. A sustained move above this level would be required to weaken the current bearish outlook. However, the more significant resistance remains the 200-day SMA around $4,494.65, which must be reclaimed before confirming a longer-term bullish trend reversal.

Middle East Conflict Fuels Inflation Fears and Supports Hawkish Fed Expectations

Geopolitical tensions escalated over the weekend after the United States launched large-scale strikes against Iran, prompting Tehran to retaliate with missile attacks targeting U.S. military bases in the Gulf region. In addition, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reportedly attacked another commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz and declared the strategic waterway closed.

The renewed conflict has intensified uncertainty across global energy markets, driving crude oil prices sharply higher and reviving concerns over energy-driven inflation. Rising oil prices have strengthened market expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain higher interest rates or even tighten monetary policy further to contain inflationary pressures.

According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in nearly a 90% probability of another Federal Reserve interest rate hike before the end of the year. This outlook continues to support higher U.S. Treasury yields and has helped the U.S. dollar rebound from last week's multi-day lows, reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.

However, USD bulls remain cautious ahead of fresh economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials. Investors are particularly focused on Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's congressional testimony later this week for additional guidance on the central bank's policy outlook.

US Inflation Data Could Determine Gold's Next Move

Market participants are also closely watching the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday. These key inflation reports are expected to play a crucial role in shaping expectations for future Federal Reserve policy and influencing short-term movements in both the U.S. dollar and gold prices.

A stronger-than-expected inflation reading would likely reinforce expectations for tighter monetary policy, boosting the dollar and putting additional pressure on XAU/USD. Conversely, weaker inflation figures could ease concerns over further rate hikes, providing temporary support for gold.

Despite the potential for short-term volatility, the broader fundamental backdrop remains unfavorable for bullion. As long as expectations for a hawkish Federal Reserve persist and geopolitical tensions continue to support higher energy prices, any recovery in gold is likely to face selling pressure and remain limited.

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Gold Faces Pressure

Gold Price Vulnerable Near $4,100 as Fed Rate Hike Bets and Iran Risks Pressure Bullion

Gold prices remained under pressure near the $4,100 level during the European session as investors weighed expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes alongside renewed geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran.

The precious metal slipped to a fresh intraday low in early European trading, with sellers attempting to extend losses below the key $4,100 support level. Although the U.S. Dollar had weakened following Wednesday's less-hawkish FOMC Minutes, the greenback recovered from its one-week low, supported by growing expectations of Fed interest rate hikes in 2026 and persistent geopolitical uncertainty.

From a technical perspective, gold continues to trade within a broader descending channel and remains below its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), keeping the short-term outlook bearish despite signs of improving momentum. The upper boundary of the channel near $4,156.03 represents the first major resistance level, while the 200-day SMA, currently positioned around $4,493.66, reinforces a strong technical ceiling above spot prices.

Momentum indicators suggest a potential corrective rebound. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has turned positive, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, indicating that bullish momentum is gradually improving within the broader downtrend. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains near 45, signaling only moderate buying interest rather than a decisive bullish reversal.

On the downside, today's swing low around $4,109–$4,108 serves as immediate support. A stronger support zone lies near the lower boundary of the descending channel at approximately $3,758.88, where buyers could return if selling pressure intensifies.

Fed Rate Hike Expectations Continue to Weigh on Gold

Growing expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates in 2026 continue to pressure bullion, suggesting that gold's recent rebound from the $4,020 area—its one-week low recorded on Wednesday—has started to lose momentum.

The June 16–17 FOMC Minutes, released on Wednesday, revealed that policymakers remain divided over the future path of monetary policy. While several officials indicated that the federal funds rate could finish the year within or slightly below the current target range, many also acknowledged that additional policy tightening may still be necessary if inflation risks remain elevated.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders continue to price in nearly an 85% probability of at least one Federal Reserve interest rate hike before the end of the year, reinforcing expectations that higher borrowing costs could limit gold's upside potential.

US-Iran Conflict Keeps Safe-Haven Demand Alive

Fresh military tensions between the United States and Iran have once again shifted investor attention toward rising oil prices and their potential impact on global inflation and monetary policy.

The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed that American forces carried out airstrikes on Thursday targeting approximately 90 Iranian military sites, including air defense systems, missile installations, and naval logistics facilities along Iran's coastline. In response, Iran launched missiles and drones targeting U.S. military installations in Bahrain and Kuwait while warning that additional American attacks would trigger a broader regional response, further complicating diplomatic efforts.

Despite the escalation, market sentiment improved slightly after U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters that Iran had reached out to negotiate a deal with Washington. A White House official also reaffirmed that the United States remains committed to the existing memorandum of understanding with Iran.

These mixed geopolitical signals have left investors cautious, suggesting that stronger follow-through buying will be required to confirm that gold has established a short-term bottom. Even so, XAU/USD remains on track to post a modest weekly loss as traders continue to monitor developments surrounding the evolving US-Iran conflict and the Federal Reserve's policy outlook.

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Gold Prices Slip

Gold Prices Slip as Iran Tensions Strengthen US Dollar

Gold prices edged lower on Thursday as a stronger US Dollar continued to weigh on the precious metal following renewed military tensions between the United States and Iran. Escalating geopolitical risks have fueled concerns over persistent inflation, reinforcing expectations that interest rates could remain elevated for longer.

Meanwhile, the minutes from the Federal Reserve's June policy meeting provided little support for gold, revealing that policymakers remain divided over whether additional interest rate hikes will be necessary this year.

Spot gold fell 0.2% to $4,070.81 per troy ounce, while gold futures slipped 0.1% to $4,079.47 per ounce as of 09:46 GMT.

Gold has now posted losses for three consecutive sessions after renewed US-Iran military activity pushed crude oil prices sharply higher. Rising energy costs have intensified concerns that inflation could remain stubbornly high, prompting investors to expect the Federal Reserve to maintain restrictive monetary policy for an extended period.

The US Dollar benefited from these inflation concerns, with the US Dollar Index remaining close to the 13-month high reached in June.

"Any sustained recovery in energy prices would reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer to combat persistent inflation," ANZ analysts said in a research note.

Military tensions escalated earlier this week after the United States launched a series of strikes against Iran. President Donald Trump also declared that the ceasefire with Iran had ended, following Iranian attacks targeting vessels attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Other precious metals also traded mostly lower, extending recent declines alongside gold. Spot silver dropped 0.5% to $58.0060 per ounce, while spot platinum gained 0.5% to $1,594.00 per ounce.

Fed Minutes Highlight Inflation Concerns

The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes, released on Wednesday, suggested that policymakers remain divided over the need for additional interest rate increases in 2026. While opinions differed on the policy outlook, officials broadly acknowledged that inflation remains a significant challenge.

The minutes also revealed growing concern among Fed officials that persistent inflationary pressures could eventually justify another rate hike later this year, particularly if price growth shows little sign of easing.

US inflation has accelerated noticeably since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict in late February, with consumer prices continuing to run well above the Federal Reserve's long-term 2% inflation target.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh recently reiterated the central bank's commitment to restoring inflation to its target, emphasizing that policymakers remain prepared to keep monetary policy restrictive until inflation returns to sustainable levels.

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Gold Below $4100

Gold Falls Below $4,100 as Middle East Tensions Boost US Dollar Ahead of Fed Minutes

Gold prices extended their losses during the European session on Wednesday, with XAU/USD falling below the key $4,100 level as renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East fueled demand for the U.S. dollar. Investors adopted a cautious stance after U.S. President Donald Trump declared at the NATO Summit that the memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed with Iran to end the conflict was "over," adding that he had no intention of resuming negotiations with Tehran.

The stronger U.S. dollar, supported by renewed safe-haven inflows, weighed heavily on the precious metal. Risk sentiment deteriorated as markets reacted to the latest escalation between the United States and Iran, prompting investors to shift capital toward the Greenback.

Gold Technical Analysis: Bearish Momentum Remains Intact

On the daily chart, XAU/USD traded at $4,129.61, maintaining a bearish outlook as the price remained below all major moving averages. Spot gold continued to trade beneath the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,139.93, while the 50-day SMA at $4,373.87, 200-day SMA at $4,491.31, and 100-day SMA at $4,611.31 reinforced a strong long-term resistance zone.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) stood at 44.41, remaining below the neutral 50 level and signaling weakening bullish momentum rather than oversold conditions.

Immediate resistance is located at the 21-day SMA near $4,139.93, followed by the 50-day SMA at $4,373.87. Additional resistance lies at the 200-day SMA and 100-day SMA, which together form a significant supply zone. Unless gold can reclaim these technical levels, the downside bias is likely to remain intact. With no major structural support currently visible, further declines remain possible unless renewed buying interest emerges.

US-Iran Conflict Revives Safe-Haven Demand for the Dollar

Gold's brief recovery came to an end ahead of the European market open as the U.S. dollar rebounded following Tuesday's sell-off. The Greenback regained its safe-haven appeal after geopolitical tensions between Washington and Tehran intensified once again.

The renewed conflict also pushed crude oil prices sharply higher, reviving inflation concerns and reducing investors' appetite for risk assets.

According to reports, the U.S. military launched a fresh wave of strikes against Iran on Tuesday while revoking export licenses that had allowed Iranian oil sales after three oil tankers were struck by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz.

In response, Iran's chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, accused the United States of violating key provisions of the ceasefire memorandum of understanding. Meanwhile, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed it had targeted 85 U.S. military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait in retaliation for the alleged ceasefire breach and announced that it had shot down a U.S. MQ-9 drone over southern Iran.

Fed Minutes in Focus as Rate Hike Expectations Increase

Beyond geopolitical developments, investors are closely watching the release of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes for fresh guidance on the central bank's interest rate outlook.

Despite weaker-than-expected U.S. ISM Services PMI and Nonfarm Payrolls data, markets have recently increased expectations that the Fed could resume tightening monetary policy. Rising oil prices and renewed inflation risks linked to the Middle East conflict have further strengthened this view.

According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the probability of a September interest rate hike has climbed to more than 63%, up from roughly 57% a day earlier.

Looking ahead, gold prices are expected to remain highly sensitive to both geopolitical developments surrounding the U.S.-Iran conflict and any policy signals emerging from the Fed minutes. A stronger U.S. dollar and higher Treasury yield expectations could continue to pressure bullion, while any escalation in geopolitical risks may provide temporary safe-haven support for the precious metal.

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Gold Holds Weakness

Gold Prices Stay Under Pressure as Rising US Bond Yields, Stronger Dollar, and Hormuz Tensions Weigh on Bullion

Gold prices remained under pressure during the European session on Tuesday, although the precious metal continued to trade above the key $4,100 level. Renewed geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz lifted crude oil prices, reviving inflation concerns that pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher and strengthened the U.S. dollar, adding fresh pressure to non-yielding bullion.

The XAU/USD pair maintained a bearish short-term outlook after remaining below its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,489.97 while continuing to trade inside a descending channel. Although the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned positive—with the MACD line crossing above the signal line and the histogram expanding into positive territory—the bullish momentum remains insufficient to reverse the prevailing downtrend.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 44.16, remaining below the neutral 50 mark and signaling that bearish sentiment still dominates despite the recent rebound.

Gold Technical Outlook: Key Support and Resistance Levels

The $4,100 level continues to act as immediate support for gold prices. A sustained break below this area could expose the lower boundary of the descending channel near $3,844.34, where stronger buying interest is expected to emerge.

On the upside, immediate resistance is located around the upper boundary of the descending channel near $4,296.64. Additional resistance is seen at the 200-day SMA around $4,489.97, followed by a stronger structural barrier near $4,572.41.

Fed Rate Expectations Could Limit Gold's Downside

Despite the current bearish pressure, expectations for fewer Federal Reserve interest rate hikes could prevent a deeper decline in gold prices.

Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz remain elevated as Tehran seeks to strengthen its strategic control over one of the world's most critical shipping lanes. Iranian officials continue to defend proposed transit charges as fees for maritime security, vessel monitoring, and environmental protection rather than tolls, despite strong opposition from the United States.

Adding to market concerns, a maritime agency reported that an oil tanker was struck by an unidentified projectile while transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The incident has raised doubts over the fragile peace agreement between the United States and Iran, providing additional support for crude oil prices and fueling inflation concerns.

Weak US Jobs Data Reduces Fed Tightening Bets

Meanwhile, weaker-than-expected U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June prompted investors to scale back expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening.

Market participants have shifted their outlook from anticipating one or two rate hikes in 2026 to expecting between zero and one increase, limiting further gains in the U.S. dollar and reducing bearish pressure on gold.

Recent economic data also offered little support for the greenback. The ISM Services PMI eased to 54.0 in June from 54.5 in May, matching market expectations but failing to provide fresh momentum for the U.S. currency.

FOMC Minutes in Focus as Investors Await Fresh Policy Signals

Investors are now refraining from making aggressive directional bets ahead of the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes, which are expected to provide additional guidance on the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy path.

Geopolitical developments in the Middle East will also remain a major driver for the U.S. dollar and gold prices in the coming sessions.

For now, the broader fundamental backdrop suggests traders should wait for stronger selling pressure before concluding that gold's recent rebound from its yearly low has completely lost momentum.

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Gold Holds Firm

Gold Price Holds Near Daily Lows as Hormuz Tensions Support US Dollar, While Dovish Fed Outlook Limits Downside

Gold prices traded near their daily lows on Monday, although losses remained limited as fading expectations of further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes offset renewed safe-haven demand for the US dollar amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

The precious metal recovered modestly from intraday lows but remained below the two-week high reached earlier in the session. Investors continued to weigh geopolitical risks against the prospect of a less aggressive monetary policy stance from the Federal Reserve.

Technical Outlook: Gold Remains Constructive Above Key Support

Friday's breakout above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the four-hour chart, combined with a move above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April-to-June decline, reinforced bullish momentum for XAU/USD.

Momentum indicators continue to favor buyers. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains elevated near 63, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays in positive territory, suggesting that the broader uptrend remains intact despite the current consolidation below recent highs.

On the downside, immediate support is located around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $4,164, followed by the 100-period SMA near $4,147. A decisive break below this level could expose the next major structural support around $3,940.

On the upside, initial resistance stands at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near $4,302, followed by the 50% retracement at $4,415 and the 61.8% Fibonacci level around $4,527. A sustained breakout above these levels could pave the way toward the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $4,686, with the April swing high near $4,889 serving as the next major bullish target.

Geopolitical Risks and Fed Expectations Shape Gold Outlook

Persistent buying by global central banks continues to provide a strong underlying support for gold, helping limit losses after the precious metal ended a three-session winning streak.

Despite a fragile temporary agreement between the United States and Iran, geopolitical tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remain elevated. Iran recently announced plans to introduce new service fees for vessels passing through the strategically important waterway, while the United States rejected the proposal. The renewed uncertainty has boosted demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, creating short-term headwinds for gold.

However, expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes have weakened following softer-than-expected US employment data released last Thursday. The latest labor market figures pointed to easing employment conditions, reinforcing speculation that the Fed could adopt a more patient approach toward monetary policy.

At the same time, declining crude oil prices have eased inflation concerns, reducing the likelihood that interest rates will remain elevated for an extended period. This shift has prevented the US dollar from gaining stronger upside momentum and has helped cushion gold's downside.

Central Bank Demand Continues to Support Gold Prices

Long-term demand for gold remains robust, driven largely by continued central bank purchases.

A recent World Gold Council survey revealed that central banks are increasingly viewing gold as a strategic hedge against inflation, financial instability, and geopolitical uncertainty. Nearly 90% of respondents expect global central bank gold reserves to increase over the next 12 months.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) reported that gold has officially surpassed US Treasuries as a share of global reserve assets, highlighting the metal's growing importance in international reserve management.

In addition, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) increased its gold holdings by 320,000 ounces in May, marking the 19th consecutive month of reserve accumulation.

Market Focus Shifts to US ISM Services PMI and Fed Speakers

Investors are now turning their attention to the upcoming US ISM Services PMI report, along with speeches from several influential Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) officials. These events could provide fresh clues about the future direction of US monetary policy and influence demand for both the US dollar and gold.

Despite short-term volatility, the broader fundamental backdrop continues to favor higher gold prices. Ongoing central bank buying, persistent geopolitical uncertainty, and easing expectations for additional Fed tightening suggest that any intraday pullbacks are likely to attract buyers, keeping the broader bullish outlook intact.

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Gold Recovery Continues

 

Gold Needs Weekly Close Above $4,165 to Sustain Recovery

Gold prices extended their post-US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rally on Friday, climbing to an eight-day high just below the $4,200 mark as the US dollar weakened amid fading expectations of further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Despite the rebound, technical indicators continue to favor a "sell-on-rallies" strategy, with bearish momentum and the Death Cross pattern remaining intact.

Spot gold (XAU/USD) traded at $4,182.02 during the European session, supported by broad US dollar weakness. The greenback remained on track for weekly losses as traders scaled back bets on additional Fed tightening following disappointing US employment data and continued selling pressure in the USD/JPY pair.

Gold Technical Outlook Remains Bearish

From a technical perspective, gold's short-term outlook remains negative despite recovering from recent multi-month lows.

XAU/USD continues to trade below its key moving averages, including the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,402.46, the 200-day SMA at $4,486.06, and the 100-day SMA at $4,636.39. This keeps the broader bearish trend intact even as prices rebound.

The 21-day SMA at $4,165.03 is currently acting as immediate dynamic support. Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 47.24, remaining below the neutral 50 level and suggesting that bearish momentum has weakened but has not yet shifted into bullish territory.

Adding to the cautious outlook, the Death Cross remains active after the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA during last week's weekly close, reinforcing sellers' control over the longer-term trend.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

On the upside, the first major resistance is located around the 50-day SMA at $4,402.46. Additional resistance levels are seen at the 200-day SMA near $4,486.06 and the 100-day SMA at $4,636.39. This cluster of technical barriers is likely to limit further upside unless gold achieves a decisive breakout.

On the downside, immediate support remains at the 21-day SMA near $4,165.03. A sustained break below this level could expose gold to renewed selling pressure and potentially retest lower price levels. Holding above this support would allow bullion to consolidate while maintaining the broader bearish structure.

Weak US Jobs Data Boosts Gold Demand

Gold buying interest remained resilient after the precious metal rebounded sharply from a seven-month low of $3,942 recorded earlier this week.

The recovery was fueled by continued weakness in the US dollar against major global currencies following disappointing US economic data and easing expectations of additional Federal Reserve rate hikes.

On Thursday, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed that the economy added only 57,000 jobs in June, significantly below market expectations of 110,000. Meanwhile, the Labor Force Participation Rate declined to 61.5%, its lowest level in more than five years.

The weaker-than-expected labor market data reinforced concerns about slowing economic momentum and encouraged traders to reduce expectations of another Fed rate increase later this year.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now price in roughly a 54% probability of a September rate hike, down from 66% before the employment report was released.

Softer Fed Outlook Weighs on US Dollar

Additional pressure on the US dollar came from recent comments by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who struck a less hawkish tone during the European Central Bank Forum in Sintra.

Warsh noted that easing inflation expectations were encouraging, reinforcing market hopes that the Fed may avoid further aggressive monetary tightening. Lower interest rate expectations generally benefit non-yielding assets such as gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding bullion.

The US dollar also remained under pressure due to continued declines in USD/JPY, as investors monitored the possibility of Japanese currency intervention.

Meanwhile, geopolitical developments offered limited support. Qatar stated that US-Iran mediated negotiations had made "positive progress" toward a longer-term agreement, although Iran continued issuing navigation warnings for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Gold Awaits Weekly Close Above $4,165

Looking ahead, gold traders will closely watch whether bullion can secure a weekly close above the $4,165 support level, which could strengthen the current recovery.

However, profit-taking ahead of the weekend, reduced liquidity due to the US Independence Day holiday, and the prevailing bearish technical structure could limit additional gains.

Unless gold breaks decisively above major resistance levels, the broader outlook continues to favor cautious trading, with rallies likely to attract fresh selling interest.

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Gold Awaits Payrolls

Gold Spot Price Edges Higher Ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls Report

Spot gold prices posted modest gains on Thursday as investors remained cautious ahead of the highly anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could provide fresh clues about the Federal Reserve's interest rate path in the coming months.

Market participants are closely watching the employment data, as stronger-than-expected figures could reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish monetary policy stance.

As of 17:37 GMT, spot gold climbed 0.8% to $4,065.05 per troy ounce, while gold futures slipped 0.1% to $4,077.42 per troy ounce.

US Jobs Report in Focus

Economists expect the US economy to have added approximately 114,000 jobs in June, down from 172,000 in May, although the labor market is still considered relatively resilient. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.3%, where it has held since March.

Over the past three months, the closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls report has consistently exceeded market expectations, pushing the three-month average payroll gain to 188,000, the strongest level in nearly two years.

"Our forecasts continue to indicate a resilient labor market, reinforcing the view that employment growth has reaccelerated following last year's slowdown," analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a research note.

Strong Labor Market Could Support Higher Interest Rates

Persistent strength in the US labor market could give the Federal Reserve greater flexibility to raise interest rates later this year, particularly as policymakers remain concerned about inflationary pressures linked to energy prices.

Although crude oil prices have eased following the framework peace agreement signed between the United States and Iran last month, uncertainty remains over whether the earlier surge in oil prices—triggered by the joint US-Israel military strikes on Iran in late February—will continue to fuel inflation over the longer term.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank noted that markets have undergone a "hawkish repricing" in recent weeks. According to CME FedWatch expectations, investors now see the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike as early as September.

Higher interest rates generally help contain inflation but can also slow economic growth and weaken labor market conditions.

Fed Rate Expectations Ease Slightly

Expectations for aggressive monetary tightening softened this week after separate employment data showed US private-sector hiring increased less than expected in June.

Adding to the shift in sentiment, newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh indicated on Wednesday that inflation risks in the United States have moderated, fueling speculation that the central bank may delay any immediate interest rate increase.

Interest rate expectations remain one of the primary drivers of gold prices, as higher borrowing costs reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as precious metals.

Stronger US Dollar Continues to Pressure Gold

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index edged slightly lower. However, expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve have kept the greenback well above levels seen before the geopolitical conflict.

A stronger US dollar typically weighs on gold prices by making the precious metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

"A stronger currency backdrop is prompting investors to reassess their positions after several weeks of heightened market volatility," said Neil Welsh, Head of Metals at Britannia Global Markets.

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Gold Prices Plunge

 

Gold Prices Plunge 12.4% in June, Marking Worst Monthly Loss in 18 Years

Gold prices tumbled more than 1% on Tuesday, putting the precious metal on track for its biggest monthly decline since October 2008, as easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East shifted investor focus toward rising U.S. interest rate expectations and persistent inflation concerns.

As of 11:45 WIB on Tuesday (June 30, 2026), spot gold fell 1.0% to $3,975.04 per troy ounce. The decline leaves gold down 12.4% for June, marking its fourth consecutive monthly loss and its worst monthly performance in 18 years.

Meanwhile, U.S. gold futures for August 2026 delivery dropped 1.2% to $3,988.60 per troy ounce.

Gold is also on course for its first quarterly decline since 2024 and its steepest quarterly loss since the second quarter of 2013. Earlier surges in energy prices driven by the Iran conflict fueled inflation concerns, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue raising interest rates.

"You have high inflation, expectations for higher interest rates, and a stronger U.S. dollar, and that outweighs all the bullish factors that would normally support a gold rally," said Edward Meir, an analyst at Marex.

Although gold is traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation, higher interest rates reduce its appeal because the precious metal does not generate interest income.

Markets are currently pricing in three Federal Reserve rate hikes this year, while the CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 64% probability of a rate increase in September.

Investors are now awaiting this week's ADP employment report and the June Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for further clues about the Fed's monetary policy outlook.

The U.S. dollar strengthened and remained on track for its second consecutive monthly gain, making dollar-denominated gold more expensive for holders of other currencies and adding further pressure to bullion prices.

Meanwhile, oil prices are heading for their sharpest quarterly decline since 2020 as investors closely monitor the outcome of Iran-U.S. discussions in Doha, despite Iran stating that no official meeting has been scheduled.

"Gold needs at least one of three conditions to improve: lower real yields, a weaker U.S. dollar, or reduced expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve. Without these catalysts, any rally is likely to fade, and gold may continue consolidating below its previous highs," said Christopher Wong, Precious Metals Strategist at OCBC.

Other precious metals also traded lower. Spot silver fell 1.6% to $57.35 per ounce, platinum declined 0.5% to $1,566.90 per ounce, while palladium gained 0.5% to $1,219.55 per ounce. Despite the modest rise in palladium, all three metals remain on track to post both monthly and quarterly losses.

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Gold Holds Weakness

Gold Holds Near $4,050 as US-Iran Conflict Fuels Inflation Concerns

Gold prices trimmed part of their daily losses but remained under pressure, trading near $4,070 during the Asian session on Monday. The precious metal struggled to gain momentum after renewed military clashes between the United States and Iran in the strategic Strait of Hormuz pushed crude oil prices higher, reigniting global inflation concerns and weighing on investor sentiment.

Gold Technical Analysis: Bearish Momentum Remains Intact

On the daily chart, XAU/USD was trading at $4,068.30, extending its decline well below key short- and medium-term moving averages, reinforcing the prevailing bearish outlook.

Spot gold continues to trade below the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,240.86, the 50-day SMA at $4,453.85, and the 200-day SMA at $4,479.26. Meanwhile, the longer-term 100-day SMA remains significantly higher at $4,674.59, highlighting a strong resistance zone that bulls must overcome before any meaningful recovery can develop.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) is hovering around 36, indicating persistent bearish momentum while remaining above oversold territory.

Adding to the negative outlook, gold confirmed a Death Cross after the 50-day SMA closed below the 200-day SMA at Friday's weekly close, a technical signal often associated with further downside risk.

Immediate resistance is located around the 21-day SMA at $4,240.86, followed by stronger barriers at the 50-day SMA ($4,453.85) and the 200-day SMA ($4,479.26). A sustained breakout above these technical levels could pave the way toward the 100-day SMA near $4,674.59. Until then, gold remains vulnerable to additional selling pressure, with traders closely monitoring fresh support below the current $4,068.30 area.

Geopolitical Tensions and Fed Expectations Drive Gold Market

Investors remain highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East, continuously reassessing regional stability and its broader impact on global risk sentiment.

However, gold prices recovered part of their intraday losses after Washington and Tehran agreed to a temporary ceasefire ahead of crucial peace negotiations scheduled to take place in Doha on Tuesday. The diplomatic breakthrough eased geopolitical tensions that had recently shaken global financial markets.

The ceasefire followed several days of escalating military exchanges after an unidentified projectile struck a cargo vessel on Thursday. Both nations accused each other of violating the temporary truce originally established on June 17, prompting renewed uncertainty before agreeing to resume diplomatic talks in Qatar.

Beyond geopolitical developments, non-yielding assets such as gold continue to face headwinds from persistent expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish monetary policy stance. Higher interest rates typically reduce the appeal of gold, as investors shift toward interest-bearing assets.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in a 59.7% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike as early as September 2026.

Market Focus Turns to US Jobs Report

Attention is now shifting to this week's critical U.S. labor market data, culminating in Thursday's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. The employment figures are expected to provide fresh clues regarding the Federal Reserve's future interest-rate path.

Wall Street economists forecast that the U.S. economy added approximately 114,000 jobs in June, while the national unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%.

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Gold Extends Losses

Gold Heads for Fourth Straight Weekly Loss as Strong US Dollar, Fed Rate Hike Bets Weigh

Gold prices fell on Friday and were on track for a fourth consecutive weekly decline, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again later this year.

Spot gold slipped 0.7% to US$3,998.74 per ounce as of 03:52 WIB, while U.S. gold futures declined 0.8% to US$4,015.90 per ounce.

Bullion is set to record a weekly loss of nearly 4% and has dropped approximately 12% so far this month, reflecting persistent selling pressure as investors adjust their expectations for U.S. monetary policy.

Among other precious metals, silver fell 2.5% to US$56.44 per ounce, putting it on course for a weekly decline of around 13%. Platinum also dropped 1.8% to US$1,573.60 per ounce and is heading for its seventh consecutive weekly loss.

The U.S. dollar remained close to its highest level in 13 months and was on track for a second straight weekly gain, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies and reducing global demand.

The greenback continued to draw support from expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to tighten monetary policy further as inflation remains elevated.

Data released on Thursday showed that the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index—the Fed's preferred inflation gauge—rose 4.1% year-over-year in May, marking its highest reading in more than three years and the first time it has exceeded 4% since 2023.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, financial markets are now pricing in a 63% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September. Higher interest rates typically reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.

XAU/USD Outlook

Despite the broader weakness, gold limited its losses as investors continued to monitor developments in the Middle East after a cargo ship reported an attack near the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting ongoing geopolitical risks despite an initial peace agreement between the United States and Iran.

The incident briefly boosted safe-haven demand for gold. However, the renewed geopolitical concerns were not enough to offset pressure from the stronger U.S. dollar and rising expectations of additional Federal Reserve rate hikes, leaving the precious metal on track for another weekly decline.

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Gold Under Pressure

Gold Nears Seven-Month Low as Stronger U.S. Dollar and Hawkish Fed Pressure Prices

Gold prices extended their decline on Thursday, hovering near their lowest level in more than seven months, as a stronger U.S. dollar and growing expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening continued to weigh on demand for the non-yielding precious metal.

Spot gold fell 0.2% to $3,992.60 per ounce as of 16:56 WIB, while U.S. Gold Futures remained largely unchanged at $4,008.22 per ounce.

The precious metal dropped below the key $4,000-per-ounce level on Wednesday for the first time since November 2025. Gold has now lost nearly 30% of its value from the all-time high of $5,595.46 per ounce recorded in January.

Stronger Dollar and Fed Rate Hike Expectations Weigh on Gold

Gold’s latest weakness comes as the U.S. dollar remains near a 13-month high after posting gains for six consecutive trading sessions. The rally has been fueled by increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates again later this year.

According to CME FedWatch data, markets are currently pricing in roughly a one-third probability of a rate hike in July and a 66% chance of additional monetary tightening in September.

A stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated gold more expensive for overseas buyers, while higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding bullion, which does not generate interest income.

“Gold’s weakness highlights the extent to which markets have shifted their focus away from safe-haven demand and toward the implications of higher interest rates and tighter financial conditions,” ING analysts said in a recent report.

Easing Geopolitical Risks Reduce Safe-Haven Demand

The recent decline also reflects a broader reassessment of safe-haven demand. Reduced geopolitical concerns following progress in U.S.-Iran peace efforts, combined with lower oil prices, have diminished some of the risk premium that supported gold earlier this year.

Market participants are now awaiting the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, for further clues regarding the future path of monetary policy.

Silver, Platinum, and Copper Market Update

Among other precious metals, silver edged up 0.1% to $57.50 per ounce after plunging more than 6% in the previous session.

“Although the silver market is expected to remain in deficit, some of its strongest demand drivers are beginning to lose momentum,” ING analysts added.

Meanwhile, platinum slipped 0.3% to $1,581.60 per ounce after tumbling 4.5% on Wednesday.

In the base metals market, benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange rose 1.7% to $13,255.95 per metric ton, while U.S. copper futures gained 1.6% to $6.04 per pound.

XAU/USD Outlook

Gold traders remain focused on upcoming U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve policy signals. Any indication of persistent inflationary pressures could strengthen expectations for further interest rate hikes, potentially keeping downward pressure on XAU/USD in the near term.

However, renewed geopolitical tensions, weaker economic data, or a shift toward a more dovish Fed stance could provide support for gold prices and revive safe-haven demand.

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Gold Extends Losses

Gold Prices Fall to Two-Week Low as Stronger US Dollar Weighs on Market Sentiment

Gold prices extended their decline on Wednesday, falling to their lowest level in nearly two weeks and testing the key psychological support level of $4,000 per troy ounce. The precious metal came under pressure as the US dollar strengthened and growing expectations of further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes reduced the appeal of non-yielding assets.

Spot gold dropped 1.1% to $4,067.72 per ounce as of 12:42 WIB, after briefly touching an intraday low of $4,050.60 earlier in the session.

Meanwhile, US gold futures declined 1.6% to $4,083.60 per ounce.

Bullion has now posted losses in five of the last six trading sessions and recently recorded its third consecutive weekly decline, highlighting increasing bearish momentum in the precious metals market.

Stronger Dollar and Hawkish Fed Outlook Pressure Gold

The US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to a 13-month high on Wednesday as investors increased bets that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates as early as July, followed by another hike later this year.

A stronger US dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, while higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets such as gold.

Market participants significantly raised expectations for additional monetary tightening following last week's Federal Reserve policy meeting and a series of hawkish comments from Fed officials.

Current market pricing indicates approximately a 70% probability of a rate hike in September, with another increase fully anticipated by December.

“Strength in the US dollar and expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer are outweighing safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical risks,” analysts at ING said in a market note.

Easing Middle East Supply Concerns Add to Downside Pressure

Gold also faced additional headwinds as concerns over potential energy supply disruptions in the Middle East continued to ease.

Investors are closely monitoring ongoing diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran after both sides signaled progress toward implementing a broader peace framework aimed at normalizing energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

However, uncertainty remains over key issues, including nuclear inspections and access to frozen Iranian assets.

“While geopolitical risks remain elevated, gold is likely to continue trading in line with Federal Reserve expectations, leaving prices vulnerable to higher Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar in the near term,” ING analysts added.

Markets Await Key US PCE Inflation Data

Investors are now focusing on the upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report scheduled for release on Thursday, which could provide fresh clues regarding the Federal Reserve’s future policy direction.

Other Precious Metals and Copper Performance

Among other precious metals, silver rebounded 0.8% to $61.12 per ounce after plunging more than 5% in the previous session.

Platinum slipped 1.2% to $1,634.81 per ounce.

In the base metals market, benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) edged down 0.3% to $13,343.88 per metric ton, while US copper futures declined 0.6% to $6.10 per pound.

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