Gold Outlook Bullish

 

Gold Prices Expected to Stay Bullish as Market Outlook Remains Strong Through Year-End

Gold prices are projected to remain at elevated levels through the third quarter of 2026 despite easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Analysts believe the weakening rupiah and expectations of global monetary policy easing will continue supporting precious metal prices in the coming months.

According to Trading Economics data on Monday (June 1, 2026) at 08:10 WIB, spot gold prices stood at US$4,527 per troy ounce. Although prices fell 0.62% over the past week, gold still recorded a 0.40% monthly gain.

Meanwhile, silver prices were recorded at US$74.90 per troy ounce, down 3.26% weekly. However, silver still posted a monthly increase of 3.87%.

Commodity analyst and Traderindo founder Wahyu Laksono stated that the rise in gold prices throughout this year has been driven by a combination of geopolitical sentiment, global central bank interest rate policies, US dollar movements, and strong investment demand.

According to Wahyu, the market was previously overshadowed by a spike in oil prices due to disruptions in energy distribution routes in the Middle East. However, hopes for a potential agreement between the United States and Iran have started to reduce market concerns over global oil supply risks.

“The easing geopolitical tensions have pushed oil prices lower again. However, gold continues to gain support from expectations of monetary easing and strong demand as a safe-haven asset,” Wahyu told Kontan on Friday (May 29, 2026).

He explained that signals of interest rate cuts from major global central banks, especially the Federal Reserve (The Fed), have become one of the main factors supporting gold prices. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, increasing investor demand.

In addition, the weakening US Dollar Index (DXY) and declining US Treasury yields have also provided room for precious metals to strengthen further.

On the other hand, continued gold purchases by central banks across various countries remain another important factor supporting prices. The trend of diversifying foreign exchange reserves is expected to keep global gold demand strong.

Wahyu estimates global gold prices could continue trading within the range of US$4,000 to US$5,000 per troy ounce during the third quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, support levels are projected to remain around US$4,350 to US$4,400 per troy ounce if corrections occur.

Silver prices, meanwhile, are expected to move more volatilely within the range of US$60 to US$108 per troy ounce. According to Wahyu, silver could potentially record more aggressive gains than gold if industrial demand, especially from the green energy and manufacturing sectors, rebounds.

For the Indonesian domestic market, Wahyu believes Antam gold prices still have room to rise, although not as dramatically as the surge seen in 2025.

He noted that the weakening rupiah exchange rate remains the primary factor keeping domestic gold prices elevated. Since local gold prices are based on global gold prices converted into rupiah using the US dollar exchange rate, currency depreciation continues supporting higher prices.

“This condition keeps Antam gold prices potentially staying at high levels even if global gold prices experience corrections,” Wahyu said.

By the end of the year, Wahyu forecasts Antam gold prices to move within the range of Rp2,650,000 to Rp3,000,000 per gram. The projection assumes global gold prices remain between US$4,000 and US$5,000 per troy ounce, while the rupiah exchange rate fluctuates between Rp17,000 and Rp18,000 per US dollar.

He added that if the rupiah weakens beyond Rp18,000 per US dollar, Antam gold prices could potentially surpass Rp3,000,000 per gram.

In the medium term, Wahyu projects Antam gold prices could climb further toward Rp3,500,000 to Rp4,000,000 per gram as the bullish outlook for global gold prices remains intact.

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Pani Gold Expansion

Merdeka Gold Begins Deep Drilling at Pani Mine, Gold Potential Reaches 7 Million Ounces

A subsidiary of PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk (MDKA), PT Merdeka Gold Resources Tbk (EMAS), has officially commenced a 3,600-meter diamond deep drilling program at the Pani Gold Mine as the company targets a significant increase in mineral resources estimated at around 7 million ounces of gold.

President Director of Merdeka Gold Resources, Boyke Abidin, stated that the Pani Gold Mine located in Gorontalo currently holds an estimated mineral resource of 291.5 million tons with an average gold grade of 0.75 g/t. The massive resource potential, equivalent to approximately 7 million ounces of gold, is expected to support the long-term development of the mining project.

Boyke explained that the current mineral resource estimate is derived from an exploration area covering 135 hectares out of the company’s total concession area of 14,670 hectares. Previous exploration activities have shown strong indications of mineralization extending beyond the boundaries of the earlier drilling programs.

Therefore, the 3,600-meter diamond drilling campaign has been specifically designed to evaluate the potential expansion of the existing resource base. Through this latest drilling initiative, the Pani project aims to test the continuity of gold mineralization at much deeper zones in the future.

“With production activities beginning at Pani, the company is now in a stronger strategic position to continue testing deeper mineralization potential through six carefully designed drill holes,” Boyke stated in an official statement received by Kontan.co.id on Friday (May 29, 2026).

The initial phase of the drilling program includes six drill holes, with one drilling rig already operating on-site. Meanwhile, a second rig is scheduled to begin full operations next month to accelerate the drilling process.

If the initial results show positive potential, the company is prepared to expand the drilling program on a much larger scale.

“This program also offers flexibility for further expansion if drilling results indicate positive potential,” he added.

In addition, Boyke noted positive progress in the exploration program at the Kolokoa working area. The project has completed its initial drilling campaign consisting of 54 drill holes totaling 11,701.6 meters, with an investment value of USD 2.4 million.

Based on these results, the company is currently preparing the maiden mineral resource estimate for Kolokoa, which is targeted for release in the second quarter of 2026 to provide greater market certainty.

Furthermore, the mining issuer also plans to expand its exploration network to the Lone Pine area in the second half of 2026. EMAS is set to conduct geophysical surveys using Mobile Magnetotelluric and helicopter-based airborne magnetic surveys in June or July.

All data from the latest drilling activities will be publicly disclosed following compliance with JORC Code 2012 and KCMI 2017 reporting standards.

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Gold Under Pressure

 

Gold Remains Under Pressure as Iran Risks and Hawkish Fed Bets Support US Dollar

Gold prices struggled to extend modest gains during the Asian session on Wednesday, remaining vulnerable near the key psychological level of $4,500 as persistent geopolitical uncertainty continued to strengthen the US Dollar. In addition, growing inflation concerns have reinforced expectations of a more hawkish stance from major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, further weakening demand for the non-yielding precious metal.

From a technical perspective, gold maintains a mildly bearish short-term outlook following this week’s rejection near the critical horizontal resistance around $4,580. That region also aligns with the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart and is expected to serve as a major pivot zone. A sustained breakout above this barrier would be needed to ease the current bearish structure and pave the way for a stronger recovery.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the neutral level near 41, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to trade in negative territory. These momentum indicators suggest ongoing downside pressure despite the absence of fresh extreme bearish momentum. However, a decisive break below the monthly swing low near the $4,450 area could trigger a deeper corrective decline for gold prices.

US forces launched what was described as a self-defense strike in southern Iran on Monday, targeting Iranian missile sites and vessels allegedly attempting to deploy naval mines. Iran’s Foreign Ministry condemned the attacks as a violation of the ceasefire agreement that has been in place since early April.

In addition, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) stated that Iran retains the legitimate right to retaliate against any ceasefire violations by the United States. Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei also warned that regional countries would no longer serve as safe zones for US military bases. These developments continue to sustain geopolitical risk premiums and support the US Dollar’s safe-haven status, placing additional pressure on gold prices.

At the same time, escalating US-Iran tensions, combined with the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the US blockade of Iranian ports, could continue supporting crude oil prices and fueling inflation concerns globally. This environment has encouraged major central banks to maintain a hawkish outlook, with the Reserve Bank of Australia already raising interest rates in May, while the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and Reserve Bank of New Zealand are all expected to deliver rate hikes later this year.

Market participants are also pricing in roughly a 50% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December. This outlook provides additional support for the Greenback and limits upside momentum for non-yielding assets such as gold.

Looking ahead, no major US economic data releases are scheduled for Wednesday, leaving the US Dollar sensitive to comments from influential Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members and fresh developments surrounding the Middle East crisis. However, traders are likely to remain cautious ahead of Thursday’s release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the second estimate of US Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Given the current fundamental backdrop, market conditions continue to favor bearish sentiment toward XAU/USD, suggesting caution before anticipating any significant intraday rebound in gold prices.

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Gold Prices Decline

Gold Prices Slip as Fresh US-Iran Strikes Dampen Peace Deal Hopes

Gold prices moved lower during Asian trading on Tuesday after the latest military strikes by the United States against Iran weakened market optimism over a potential peace agreement between the two nations.

The US dollar remained steady, while oil prices rebounded following reports of renewed US military action against Iran. The stronger dollar and rising crude oil prices pressured gold, limiting the precious metal’s recent bullish momentum.

Spot gold declined 0.8% to $4,535.17 per ounce as of 08:37 WIB, while gold futures dropped 0.8% to $4,568.67 per ounce.

Other precious metals also traded lower. Spot silver fell 2.1% to $76.4495 per ounce, while spot platinum slipped 0.6% to $1,955.02 per ounce.

Gold and other safe-haven assets had posted solid gains in recent sessions after reports suggested that the United States and Iran were close to reaching a framework agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

However, reports released late Monday indicated that the US had launched fresh military strikes against Iran, reducing hopes for a near-term diplomatic breakthrough between the two countries.

According to US media reports, the military targeted missile launch facilities and mine-laying vessels located in southern Iran.

The escalating geopolitical tensions helped the US dollar stabilize after recent losses and pushed oil prices higher following a week of declines.

Rising oil prices have increased concerns about inflationary pressures stemming from the Iran conflict. Investors remain worried that energy-driven inflation could force major global central banks to maintain a more hawkish monetary policy stance, which has continued to weigh on gold prices throughout the year.

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Gold Prices Steady

Gold Prices Trim Gains but Demand Remains Strong Above $4,550 Amid Weakening US Dollar

Gold prices pared part of their intraday gains during Monday’s trading session, although demand for the precious metal remained solid above the US$4,550 level as the US Dollar continued to weaken amid mixed market sentiment.

The XAU/USD pair struggled to extend its modest Asian session rally toward the US$4,580 region and remained capped below the upper boundary of last week’s trading range. Market sentiment was influenced by weekend developments suggesting progress toward a potential peace agreement between the United States and Iran, which pressured the US Dollar and supported gold prices.

However, investors remain cautious as Washington and Tehran continue to disagree on several key issues, limiting broader bullish momentum in the gold market.

From a technical perspective, gold prices continue to trade within a descending parallel channel. The upper boundary of the channel aligns closely with the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart, creating a strong resistance zone near US$4,650. This indicates that the recent rebound may still be vulnerable despite improving momentum indicators.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains above the zero line, while the histogram continues to print positive values. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays in the mid-50 range, signaling a temporary recovery rather than a confirmed bullish trend reversal.

On the downside, the lower boundary of the parallel channel near US$4,360 serves as the next major support level. A breakdown below this floor could reinforce the broader bearish structure and open the door for deeper corrections in the medium-term downtrend.

Fed Hawkish Outlook Limits Gold Rally

Expectations that the US Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish monetary policy stance helped limit further weakness in the US Dollar and capped additional upside for non-yielding gold assets.

According to Axios, citing a US official on Saturday night, the United States and Iran are reportedly close to signing an agreement involving a 60-day ceasefire extension that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, US President Donald Trump stated that most aspects of a peace framework with Iran had already been negotiated.

The development boosted investor confidence, while declining crude oil prices eased inflation concerns and triggered a sharp drop in US Treasury yields amid thin market liquidity due to several global holidays. These factors significantly pressured the Greenback and provided support for gold prices.

Despite this, Trump reportedly instructed negotiators not to rush the agreement process and emphasized that naval restrictions on Iranian ports would remain in place until a formally certified deal is signed.

In addition, ongoing disputes regarding Iran’s nuclear program continue to limit optimism. Market speculation that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates again in 2026 may also strengthen the US Dollar moving forward.

As a result, traders may prefer to wait for stronger buying momentum before confirming that gold has established a short-term bottom near the US$4,450 region — its lowest level since late March reached last week.

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Gold Prices Weaken

Gold Prices Slip Amid Iran Uncertainty and Weak Weekly Outlook

Gold prices edged lower during early Asian trading on Friday and were on track for a weak weekly close as investors remained cautious over the ongoing Iran conflict and its potential impact on interest rates.

Spot gold fell 0.2% to $4,532.95 per ounce at 07:18 GMT, while gold futures also declined 0.2% to $4,533.90 per ounce.

Despite sharp market fluctuations throughout the week, spot gold was set to post a weekly decline of around 0.2%. Investor sentiment continued to shift amid mixed signals from the United States and Iran regarding ongoing negotiations. Optimism briefly improved after U.S. President Donald Trump delayed a potential military strike on Iran, while reports suggested that a final draft peace agreement had been reached.

However, Trump warned that military action could still happen if Tehran refused to accept the proposed agreement, with Iran’s nuclear program remaining the key point of contention.

U.S. officials also criticized Tehran’s plan to impose transit fees through the Strait of Hormuz. Limited oil flows through the crucial shipping route continued to keep crude oil prices elevated.

The conflict showed little sign of ending anytime soon, leaving markets concerned about prolonged disruptions to global oil supplies and the broader impact on inflation.

U.S. inflation has surged over the past two months due to rising energy prices, fueling speculation that the Federal Reserve may be forced to raise interest rates later this year.

Minutes from the Fed’s late-April meeting revealed growing support among policymakers for additional rate hikes, a scenario generally viewed as negative for gold and other non-yielding assets.

Other precious metals also moved lower on Friday and appeared headed for weak weekly performances. Spot platinum slipped 0.2% to $1,967.98 per ounce, while spot silver declined 0.2% to $76.5145 per ounce.

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Gold Prices Rebound

 

Gold Prices Rebound After Trump Says Iran Negotiations Near Final Stage

Global gold prices rebounded during Thursday’s trading session after previously touching their lowest level in the past two months. The recovery was driven by easing concerns over Middle East tensions and softer global inflation pressures.

Spot gold prices climbed 1.39% to US$4,543.55 per troy ounce after falling to around US$4,490 per troy ounce in the previous session.

Market sentiment improved after U.S. President Donald Trump stated that negotiations with Iran had entered the final stage. However, Trump also warned of potential additional military action if Iran refuses to agree to the proposed peace deal.

According to Alwi Assegaf, Research & Development analyst at Trijaya Pratama Futures, the rebound in gold prices was also supported by declining U.S. Treasury yields.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to 4.576% from the previous 4.669%.

“The decline in Treasury yields has provided room for gold to rebound after facing significant pressure over the past several trading sessions,” Alwi said in his Thursday research note.

Alwi added that investors have started to reduce concerns over rising inflation as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East show signs of easing.

In addition to developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations, shipping data indicated that several Chinese supertankers and oil tankers had begun exiting the Strait of Hormuz. This development triggered a decline in global crude oil prices and eased fears of disruptions to the world’s energy supply.

Despite improving market sentiment, the minutes from the April 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting revealed that most Federal Reserve officials are still open to further interest rate hikes this year.

The meeting minutes showed that many policymakers believe tighter monetary policy may still be necessary if inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target. Several members even proposed removing previous statements that hinted at a dovish policy stance.

Meanwhile, Tiffani Safinia, Research & Development analyst at ICDX, said investors are now closely watching upcoming U.S. economic data, including manufacturing PMI figures and weekly jobless claims, to assess the resilience of the U.S. economy amid ongoing inflation pressures.

“The movement of the U.S. dollar and energy prices is expected to remain the primary factor influencing gold price direction in the short term,” Tiffani explained.

Tiffani also noted that medium- to long-term investors may continue applying a gradual accumulation strategy, as gold remains a preferred hedge against inflation and global uncertainty.

From a technical perspective, Alwi stated that gold price movements on the H4 timeframe remain under bearish pressure, although short-term rebound signals have started to emerge after prices managed to hold above the 4,453 support level.

Gold prices are still trading below the descending trendline and moving average area, indicating that the bearish trend continues to dominate the market. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has started to move higher from oversold territory, signaling that bearish momentum is gradually weakening.

If prices manage to break through the resistance zone between 4,589 and 4,637, the opportunity for further gains toward the 4,773 area could widen. On the other hand, if gold fails to break resistance and falls back below 4,511, selling pressure may intensify toward support levels at 4,453 and 4,404.

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Gold Futures Slip

 

Gold Futures Edge Lower During Asian Trading Session

Gold futures traded lower during Wednesday’s Asian session, extending recent losses as investors monitored the strength of the US Dollar and broader market sentiment.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for June delivery were trading at $4,473.55 per troy ounce at the time of writing, down 0.26% on the day.

The precious metal earlier touched an intraday low during the session, with analysts closely watching key technical levels. Gold is expected to find immediate support near $4,455.51, while resistance is seen around $4,725.80.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index Futures, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, gained 0.03% to trade at $99.29, adding pressure to gold prices.

Elsewhere on Comex, silver futures for July delivery rose 0.40% to $74.28 per troy ounce, while copper futures for July delivery slipped 0.16% to $6.18 per pound.

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Gold Futures Decline

Gold Futures Edge Lower During Asian Trading Session

Gold futures traded lower during Tuesday’s Asian session as investors remained cautious amid a slightly stronger US Dollar and shifting market sentiment.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for June delivery were trading at $4,538.07 per troy ounce at the time of writing, down 0.44% on the day.

Earlier in the session, the precious metal touched an intraday low before attempting a modest recovery. Gold prices are expected to find immediate support near $4,483.97, while key resistance is seen around $4,725.80.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index Futures, which tracks the performance of the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, gained 0.03% to trade at 99.08. A firmer US Dollar typically weighs on gold prices by making the metal more expensive for holders of other currencies.

In other metals trading on Comex, silver futures for July delivery declined 1.54% to $76.25 per troy ounce. Copper futures for July delivery also moved lower, falling 1.31% to $6.25 per pound.

The broader weakness across precious and industrial metals reflects cautious investor sentiment as traders continue monitoring global economic conditions, inflation expectations, and future interest rate signals from the Federal Reserve.

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Gold Recovery Limited

 

Gold Prices Rebound From Multi-Month Lows, but Strong USD and Hawkish Fed Bets Cap Gains

Gold prices staged a modest recovery from the $4,480 region during Monday’s trading session after touching their lowest level since March 30 in Asian markets. However, upside momentum remains limited as a stronger U.S. dollar and growing expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening continue to pressure the precious metal.

Persistent demand for the U.S. dollar has been fueled by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. At the same time, rising crude oil prices have intensified inflation concerns, reinforcing speculation that the Federal Reserve could maintain a more hawkish monetary policy stance. This environment continues to support the greenback while limiting gains for non-yielding assets such as gold.

From a technical perspective, last week’s failure near the key 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) resistance suggests that bearish momentum is strengthening. A sustained move below the psychological $4,500 level could confirm a broader downward trend in gold prices.

Technical indicators also point to weak buying interest. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains near 40, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator continues to show negative readings, validating the short-term bearish outlook for gold.

Market attention is now focused on the broader support zone near the 200-day SMA at $4,352.59. A decisive break below this area could expose gold to deeper corrective losses in the coming sessions. On the upside, the 100-day SMA at $4,790.55 remains the first major resistance level that buyers need to reclaim to ease current downside pressure.

Middle East Tensions Boost Safe-Haven Demand for USD

Geopolitical risks intensified after a drone strike reportedly caused a fire at the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant in the United Arab Emirates. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia announced it had intercepted three drones launched from Iraq and warned that it would take necessary operational measures to defend its sovereignty and security.

Adding to market concerns, U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran to move quickly toward a peace agreement or face severe consequences. In a post on Truth Social, Trump stated that “time is running out” and emphasized that immediate action was necessary.

These developments have increased fears of a broader escalation in the Middle East while weakening hopes for a breakthrough in U.S.-Iran peace negotiations. As a result, investors continue to favor the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset.

Additionally, U.S. restrictions on Iranian ports and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have pushed crude oil prices to their highest levels in two weeks. The surge in oil prices has strengthened expectations that inflationary pressures could force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated into 2026.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in more than a 50% probability that the Fed could raise borrowing costs again before year-end. This outlook continues to support higher U.S. Treasury yields, benefiting USD bulls and limiting gold’s recovery potential.

Gold Outlook Remains Bearish Ahead of FOMC Minutes

The broader fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for XAU/USD remains to the downside. Any additional rebound in gold prices may attract fresh selling pressure, especially in the absence of major U.S. economic data releases on Monday.

Market participants are now turning their attention to Wednesday’s FOMC meeting minutes, which could provide fresh clues regarding the Federal Reserve’s future policy direction. Traders will also closely monitor the release of preliminary global PMI data later this week.

Meanwhile, ongoing geopolitical headlines are expected to keep financial markets volatile, potentially driving further demand for the U.S. dollar and influencing gold price movements.

In physical gold markets, discounts in India surged to record highs last week, while strong investment demand in China kept premiums elevated above global benchmark prices. However, these supportive demand factors may have limited impact as escalating Iran tensions, rising inflation concerns, and hawkish Fed expectations continue to strengthen the U.S. dollar and weigh on gold prices.

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Gold Prices Slide

 

Gold Price Extends Weekly Pullback as Stronger US Dollar Weighs on XAU/USD

Gold prices are expected to extend their weekly pullback from monthly highs, falling for a fourth consecutive session on Friday amid sustained buying interest in the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to its highest level since April 8, supported by a combination of geopolitical tensions and stronger US economic data.

Ongoing uncertainty surrounding stalled US-Iran peace negotiations, particularly disagreements over Tehran’s nuclear program and the strategic Strait of Hormuz, continues to keep geopolitical risks elevated. This backdrop has strengthened demand for the safe-haven US Dollar while pressuring non-yielding assets such as gold.

Technical Analysis: Gold Faces Bearish Momentum Below Key Support

From a technical perspective, repeated failures near the $4,765-$4,770 resistance zone have formed a bearish double-top pattern. A decisive break below the $4,670 confluence area — which includes the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from around $4,500 — confirmed the downside outlook.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains deeply in negative territory at -5.58, reinforcing bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 26.5, signaling oversold conditions that may slow the decline but are not yet strong enough to reverse the broader bearish trend.

On the downside, immediate support is located at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $4,605.89, followed by secondary support at the 78.6% retracement level near $4,560.62 and the previous swing low around $4,502.95.

On the upside, initial resistance is seen at the 50% retracement level of $4,637.69. Additional resistance appears within the broader consolidation zone between the 38.2% retracement at $4,669.49 and the 200-hour SMA at $4,673.40. Further recovery attempts may face stronger barriers near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement around $4,708.83.

Fundamental Outlook: Hawkish Fed Expectations Boost USD

Rising expectations for another interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve continue to support the US Dollar and weaken demand for gold bullion.

US President Donald Trump stated in an interview aired Thursday on Fox News that he would not remain patient with Iran and urged Tehran to reach an agreement. Meanwhile, reports of a commercial vessel being seized by Iranian personnel near the coast of the United Arab Emirates raised concerns over energy supply flows through the critical Strait of Hormuz, supporting elevated crude oil prices.

Additionally, hotter-than-expected US inflation data and stronger US Retail Sales figures released this week reinforced expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance. US headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation accelerated to 3.8% YoY in April, while core CPI rose to 2.8%. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) also surged 1.4% last month, pushing the annual rate to 6.0%.

Furthermore, US Retail Sales increased for the third straight month in April, highlighting resilient consumer spending despite mounting inflationary pressures. According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in nearly a 40% probability of another Fed rate hike before year-end. This outlook continues to strengthen the US Dollar and adds pressure to gold prices.

US-China Talks and Middle East Tensions Could Drive Market Volatility

Market sentiment toward US-China relations has improved slightly following high-level talks between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. However, Xi warned that mishandling the Taiwan issue could trigger “confrontation or even conflict” between the two global powers.

Trump and Xi are scheduled to continue their discussions for a second day in Beijing, and further headlines could generate additional volatility across global financial markets. At the same time, investors remain focused on developments in the Middle East crisis for short-term trading opportunities.

Despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, the broader fundamental backdrop continues to favor sellers, leaving the XAU/USD pair on track to post weekly losses.

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Gold Expansion Catalyst

PTRO Gold Mining Expansion Becomes New Growth Catalyst, Here’s the Recommendation

The performance outlook of PT Petrosea Tbk (PTRO) is projected to remain promising throughout 2026 as the company accelerates its business expansion into the gold mining sector in Papua New Guinea.

This strategic move marks PTRO’s commodity diversification beyond its long-established strength in coal mining services. Earlier, the company completed a binding offer transaction with Tolu Minerals Limited on April 20, 2026.

Through the deal, Petrosea secured a convertible note worth AU$23.75 million, opening opportunities for operational collaboration in the gold mining industry.

Kiwoom Sekuritas Senior Equity Research Analyst Sukarno Alatas stated that the expansion into gold mining represents a positive strategy to broaden the company’s revenue streams while reducing dependence on the coal business.

“This diversification is considered favorable because gold offers attractive long-term prospects amid elevated global commodity prices,” Sukarno said on Wednesday (May 13, 2026).

Based on the company’s financial report, PTRO posted revenue of US$284.13 million in the first quarter of 2026, surging 84.24% year-on-year (YoY) compared to US$154.22 million recorded in the same period last year.

Meanwhile, the company booked net profit attributable to parent entity owners of US$1.39 million, up 50.54% YoY from US$920,000 previously.

According to Sukarno, PTRO’s performance this year still has strong growth potential, supported by a solid contract backlog, contributions from new projects, and the gradual expansion of its non-coal businesses.

Beyond the gold mining expansion, the analyst sees continued growth in mining services activity and the possibility of securing additional contracts as key catalysts for PTRO throughout 2026.

In addition, contributions from engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) projects, along with infrastructure developments, are expected to support the company’s revenue growth this year.

“From a macro perspective, relatively stable coal prices, strong gold price trends, and increasing spending in the national energy and downstream sectors remain positive sentiments for the company,” he explained.

However, Sukarno reminded investors to remain cautious of several risks, including commodity price volatility, rising operational costs, and potential global economic slowdowns that could affect the mining sector’s performance.

Fundamentally, PTRO shares are still viewed as attractive, backed by business expansion initiatives and strong revenue visibility.

Therefore, Kiwoom Sekuritas maintains a buy recommendation for PTRO shares with a target price of Rp8,325 per share.

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Petrosea Gold Expansion

Petrosea’s Strong Backlog and Gold Diversification Support PTRO’s 2026 Outlook

The business outlook for PT Petrosea Tbk (PTRO) in 2026 remains attractive as the company expands into the gold mining sector in Papua New Guinea through its investment in Tolu Minerals Limited.

PTRO completed its binding offer process with Tolu Minerals Limited on April 20, 2026. Through the transaction, Petrosea secured a convertible note worth AUD 23.75 million, creating opportunities for future operational cooperation in the gold mining industry.

KISI Sekuritas Head of Research, Muhammad Wafi, stated that the expansion could strengthen PTRO’s business diversification strategy, as the company has long been recognized as a major player in coal mining services.

“The 2026 outlook is quite promising. Profitability could improve significantly once new projects begin contributing,” Wafi told Kontan on Tuesday (May 12, 2026).

However, he noted that PTRO’s investment in Tolu Minerals is unlikely to contribute directly to revenue in the short term. The investment is still structured as a financial instrument that may later be converted into equity ownership or mining service contracts.

According to Wafi, PTRO’s main performance catalyst continues to come from its solid long-term contract backlog, which provides strong revenue visibility for the company over the next several years.

In addition, elevated global gold prices amid rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran are also seen as a positive factor supporting PTRO’s gold diversification narrative.

“High global gold prices support PTRO’s gold diversification story, even though revenue from Tolu has not yet materialized in the near term,” he said.

Meanwhile, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas Fundamental Analyst Abida Massi Armand also highlighted several positive catalysts expected to support PTRO’s performance.

First, the company is expected to monetize its backlog from long-term contracts with Freeport Indonesia and Bara Prima Mandiri.

Second, PTRO is accelerating its engineering, procurement, construction, and installation (EPCI) segment through the integration of Hafar and Scan-Bilt, reflected in a US$9.5 million contract win from Petronas.

The company is also expanding internationally into Pakistan through an engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) project with Reko Diq Mining Company.

Despite the positive outlook, PTRO still faces several risks that investors should monitor. Regulatory changes in Indonesia’s mining sector remain a major concern, particularly regarding potential reductions in RKAB approvals and higher taxes that could weaken interest in new mining projects.

Wafi also warned about additional risks, including high interest expenses and operational challenges in new regions such as Papua New Guinea.

For investment recommendations, Wafi maintained a “buy” rating on PTRO shares with a target price of Rp 8,000 per share.

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Antam Gold Surges

Antam Gold Prices Today Jump Rp40,000 to Rp2.859 Million Per Gram

Certified Antam gold bullion produced by PT Aneka Tambang Tbk recorded a sharp increase on Tuesday, May 12, 2026.

According to the official Logam Mulia website, the price of 1 gram of Antam gold rose to Rp2,859,000 per gram. The latest price surged Rp40,000 compared to Monday, May 11, 2026, when gold was traded at Rp2,819,000 per gram.

Meanwhile, the Antam gold buyback price also climbed significantly to Rp2,676,000 per gram. This marked an increase of Rp50,000 from the previous buyback price of Rp2,626,000 per gram recorded on Monday.

The rally in Antam gold prices reflects stronger demand for precious metals amid ongoing global market uncertainty and fluctuating economic conditions.

Latest Antam Gold Prices Today – Tuesday, May 12, 2026

(Prices exclude taxes)

• 0.5 gram gold: Rp1,479,500

• 1 gram gold: Rp2,859,000

• 5 gram gold: Rp14,110,000

• 10 gram gold: Rp28,140,000

• 25 gram gold: Rp70,185,000

• 50 gram gold: Rp140,205,000

• 100 gram gold: Rp280,260,000

• 250 gram gold: Rp700,340,000

• 500 gram gold: Rp1,400,400,000

• 1,000 gram gold: Rp2,799,600,000

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Gold Below Pressure

Gold Slips Below $4,700 as Market Sentiment Weakens

Gold prices (XAU/USD) traded under pressure on Monday, fluctuating below the $4,700 level as the US Dollar regained strength. Persistent geopolitical uncertainty continued to reinforce the Greenback’s safe-haven appeal, while growing expectations of a more hawkish stance from the US Federal Reserve further weighed on the precious metal.

From a technical perspective, gold maintains a neutral tone after repeatedly failing last week to break above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-May decline. However, downside movement remained limited near the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). In addition, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stayed slightly above the 50 mark, signaling a modest bullish bias, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remained below zero with negative readings, suggesting that bullish momentum is still not fully convincing.

Meanwhile, the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement around $4,696 is expected to act as immediate resistance, followed by stronger barriers near the 61.8% retracement at $4,743 and the 78.6% level around $4,810. A sustained breakout above these levels could pave the way toward the recent cycle high near $4,894. On the downside, the 200-period SMA at $4,675 provides initial support ahead of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near $4,650, while deeper support levels are seen around $4,592 and the structural low near $4,498.

Optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran peace agreement and conflict de-escalation faded rapidly amid renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, both US President Donald Trump and Iran rejected each other’s peace proposals aimed at ending the conflict and gradually reopening the strategic waterway, largely due to major disagreements over Iran’s nuclear program.

According to reports from the Wall Street Journal, Iran refused US demands to dismantle its nuclear facilities and halt uranium enrichment activities for the next 20 years. President Trump quickly criticized Iran’s response, calling it “completely unacceptable.” These developments kept geopolitical risks elevated, supporting the US Dollar and increasing downside pressure on gold prices.

At the same time, rising crude oil prices revived inflation concerns, while stronger-than-expected US employment data released on Friday strengthened the case for a more hawkish Federal Reserve policy outlook. The latest US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed that the economy added 115,000 new jobs in April, surpassing market expectations, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3%.

Furthermore, CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicated that traders are currently pricing in more than a 20% probability that the Federal Reserve could implement at least one additional 25-basis-point interest rate hike before the end of the year. This outlook continued to support the US Dollar and reinforced bearish pressure on non-yielding assets such as gold.

However, traders remain cautious ahead of key US inflation data releases this week, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday. Investors will also closely monitor upcoming US Retail Sales data and speeches from influential Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members for further clues on monetary policy direction.

Despite the recent weakness, the absence of aggressive follow-through selling suggests caution before confirming that gold’s rebound from the psychological $4,500 level — its lowest point in more than a month reached last week — has completely lost momentum.

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Gold Prices Decline

Gold Prices Slip on Friday Morning as Hopes for Easing War Tensions Fade

Gold prices edged lower during Friday morning trading (May 8, 2026), pressured by fading optimism over a potential easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

According to Bloomberg, as of 07:58 WIB, gold futures for June 2026 delivery on the Commodity Exchange were trading at US$4,709.40 per troy ounce, down 0.03% from the previous session’s close of US$4,710.90 per troy ounce.

Although the decline was relatively mild, gold prices remained under pressure as optimism surrounding a possible agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz weakened following reports of attacks on US Navy vessels.

Bloomberg reported that military tensions escalated after Iran allegedly launched attacks on three US Navy destroyers sailing through the Strait of Hormuz.

The latest confrontation has further intensified geopolitical uncertainty as the United States seeks a way out of the conflict while awaiting Iran’s response to proposals aimed at reopening the crucial shipping route.

Gold prices have fallen around 11% since the conflict began. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered major energy price shocks, fueling inflation concerns that could keep global interest rates elevated for a longer period.

Higher interest rates and a stronger US dollar continue to weigh negatively on gold prices, reducing the appeal of the precious metal among investors.

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Gold Holds Firm

Gold Holds Positive Bias Above $4,700 as Weaker US Dollar Supports Bullion Near Multi-Week High

Gold prices maintained a positive tone for the third consecutive trading session, holding firmly above the $4,700 level and staying close to a one-and-a-half-week high reached in the previous session. However, bullish momentum appears cautious as traders await greater clarity surrounding a potential US-Iran peace agreement before placing fresh positions. The downside for the precious metal remains limited due to fading expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve and broad weakness in the US Dollar, both of which continue to support bullion prices.

Wednesday’s breakout above the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA), followed by sustained strength beyond the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the April swing high decline, has been viewed as a key bullish trigger for XAU/USD buyers. Gold also remains above the critical 50% retracement level, reinforcing the constructive near-term outlook.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains around 65, maintaining a bullish tone without yet entering overbought territory. This suggests there is still room for additional upside momentum, although the metal could face corrective pullbacks if buyers begin losing traction. At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains below the zero line with negative readings, signaling that bullish momentum is not yet fully convincing.

On the upside, immediate resistance is seen near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $4,741.58, followed by stronger resistance around the 78.6% retracement level near $4,807.61. A break above these levels could open the door toward the recent cycle high around $4,891.72, which continues to cap the broader bullish scenario.

On the downside, initial support is located near the 50% retracement level at $4,695.20, followed by a more substantial demand zone around the 38.2% retracement at $4,648.82 and the 200 EMA near $4.634,46. A sustained move below this area could expose the 23.6% retracement level at $4,591.44 and potentially the recent swing low around $4,498.68 if selling pressure intensifies.

Fundamental Overview

US President Donald Trump struck an optimistic tone on Wednesday, stating that negotiations had made progress over the past 24 hours and suggesting that a deal with Iran was highly possible. In addition, Axios reported that the United States and Iran were very close to finalizing an agreement. However, Iranian state-linked media rejected claims of a broader deal, citing reports from the Iranian Students News Agency indicating that the US proposal included terms previously rejected by Tehran in recent days.

Further reports from the BBC indicated that Iran is reviewing a one-page memorandum with the United States that could gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift American restrictions on Iranian ports. Nevertheless, Trump warned that Iran could face bombing “at levels and intensity far greater than before” if a peace agreement is not reached. Investors are therefore reassessing the likelihood of a finalized deal amid persistent disagreements over Iran’s nuclear program, a factor that continues to weigh on gold prices.

On the economic front, the latest US ADP Employment Report released Wednesday showed private-sector payrolls increased by 109K in April, compared with a downwardly revised 61K in the previous month. The stronger-than-expected reading highlighted continued resilience, though unevenness, within the US labor market. Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch Tool from CME Group indicates traders are still pricing in the possibility of another Federal Reserve rate hike later this year. This has helped limit further losses in the US Dollar and capped stronger gains in non-yielding gold.

Traders are now focusing on the weekly US Initial Jobless Claims data, alongside speeches from influential FOMC members, which may generate fresh volatility during the North American trading session. However, market attention remains firmly centered on Friday’s closely watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. In addition, ongoing developments surrounding the Middle East crisis are expected to continue driving volatility across global financial markets and shaping the next directional move for gold prices. 

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Gold Price Surge

 

Gold Surges Above $4,600 as Weaker USD Boosts Middle East Peace Hopes

Gold prices rallied above $4,600 on Wednesday morning, extending a recovery from a more than one-month low near $4,500 touched earlier this week. The US Dollar (USD) came under selling pressure amid renewed optimism over a potential US-Iran peace agreement. In addition, falling Crude Oil prices eased inflation concerns and tempered expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed), further supporting the non-yielding precious metal.

From a technical perspective, the four-hour chart shows that XAU/USD maintains a short-term bearish bias as price remains below tightly clustered moving averages. The 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,579.51 acts as the first resistance, while the 200-period SMA at $4,652.00 and the 100-period SMA at $4,699.21 reinforce a broader corrective tone. Momentum indicators are weakening, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 44 and the Momentum indicator gaining downside traction in negative territory, suggesting that bullish attempts may face selling pressure around these moving averages.

On the upside, immediate resistance aligns with the 20-period SMA near $4,579.51. A sustained breakout above this level is needed to ease short-term pressure and open the door toward the 200-period SMA at $4,652.00, followed by the 100-period SMA at $4,699.21. On the downside, key support stands at $4,500, where buyers have previously emerged. A break below this level could trigger a sharper near-term decline.

Daily chart indicators also point to a bearish outlook for XAU/USD. While spot prices remain above the 200-day SMA at $4,293.20, they are still capped by declining short- and medium-term moving averages. The 20-day SMA at $4,702.36 and the 100-day SMA at $4,766.62 continue to limit upside potential. Meanwhile, RSI and Momentum indicators are rising below their midlines, reflecting a corrective rebound rather than signaling a stronger recovery.

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Gold Holds Near $4,550 Amid Geopolitical Tensions and US Data Focus

Spot gold posted moderate intraday gains on Tuesday, trading around $4,550 per troy ounce. The precious metal started the week on a weaker note as tensions in the Middle East intensified. XAU/USD dropped toward $4,500 as peace hopes faded, while concerns over ceasefire violations grew following reports that Iran targeted oil facilities in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

The United States claimed control over the Strait of Hormuz and announced plans to escort neutral vessels through the conflict zone. However, the effort has yet to show significant success, as the route remains highly restricted on both sides. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump suggested the war could last “two or three” weeks, repeating similar statements made previously.

Ongoing uncertainty surrounding the conflict initially supported the US Dollar earlier in the week. However, the USD’s corrective decline began in Asia and accelerated during US trading hours following economic data releases. The ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) indicated a slowdown in April, coming in at 53.6, down from 54 in March.

The Greenback also retreated amid strong equity performance, supported by earnings reports and stable Crude Oil prices. Nevertheless, lingering concerns are likely to keep the USD relatively supported.

From a fundamental standpoint, market focus will remain on the Iran conflict, while US labor market data will also attract investor attention. The ADP Employment Change report is due on Wednesday, followed by the April Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.

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Gold Under Pressure

 

Gold Faces Downside Pressure Amid Hormuz Tensions and Rising Inflation Fears

Gold prices staged a modest rebound from a one-month low of $4,501 early Tuesday, often described as a dead cat bounce. However, the recovery appears fragile as sellers are likely to re-enter the market. Persistent demand for the US Dollar as a safe-haven asset, combined with renewed geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, continues to weigh on the precious metal.

From a technical perspective, XAU/USD is trading near $4,540.20 on the daily chart, maintaining a short-term bearish bias. The price remains capped below the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,701.91, along with a stronger resistance cluster formed by the 100-day SMA at $4,766.49 and the 50-day SMA at $4,808.32. Although gold is still holding above the 200-day SMA at $4,293.14 and an ascending trendline support near $4,382.60, downside risks persist. A descending trendline resistance around $4,607.28 and a weak Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) reading of 39.12 suggest that any upward moves may attract selling pressure as long as prices remain below key resistance levels.

On the upside, immediate resistance is seen near $4,607.28, followed by the 21-day SMA at $4,701.91. A sustained breakout above this zone could open the door toward the 100-day SMA at $4,766.49 and eventually the 50-day SMA at $4,808.32. On the downside, initial support lies near current price levels, with stronger support located around the broken uptrend zone at $4,382.60, followed by the 200-day SMA at $4,293.14. This area is expected to act as a key defense zone for buyers aiming to preserve the broader bullish trend.

Fundamental Outlook

Market sentiment remains risk-averse, favoring the US Dollar and limiting gold’s upside potential. Escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, have reignited inflation concerns following a recent surge in oil prices.

These fears intensified after reports that US forces engaged Iranian units and sank several small vessels targeting civilian ships while attempting to reopen the strait. The United Arab Emirates (UAE), a key US ally, also reported intercepting multiple missiles and drones allegedly launched by Iran.

While Iran has neither fully confirmed nor denied these incidents, its Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, warned that both the US and UAE should avoid being drawn deeper into conflict. Meanwhile, Iranian media cited military sources claiming that US forces attacked two civilian vessels carrying goods to Iran, though these ships were reportedly not linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

If tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to escalate, gold could face sustained downward pressure due to a combination of stronger US Dollar demand and rising expectations of tighter monetary policy. Inflation concerns are likely to reinforce hawkish expectations for the US Federal Reserve, which typically acts as a headwind for non-yielding assets like gold.

As long as geopolitical risks persist without signs of de-escalation, the US Dollar is expected to remain the preferred safe-haven asset, keeping gold vulnerable to further declines. Market participants are closely watching whether the fragile ceasefire in place since early April will hold or collapse amid rising tensions in the region.

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Gold Price Weakens

 

Gold Price Slips as Hawkish Central Banks Weigh on Market, Sellers Eye Break Below $4,600

Gold prices edged lower during Monday’s Asian session, attracting mild selling pressure while still showing resilience below the key $4,600 level. However, bearish momentum remains limited as traders await a confirmed breakdown. The cautious tone comes as major central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), maintain a hawkish stance amid concerns that rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could reignite global inflation.

A brief move above $4,600 and the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) triggered short-covering in intraday trading. Still, the upside stalled near $4,650, close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from April’s swing high. Technical indicators remain mixed— the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 58.33 signals moderate bullish momentum without being overbought, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly negative. This suggests that bullish attempts are tentative despite prices holding above short-term trend levels.

For a stronger bullish continuation, gold needs a sustained breakout above the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $4,651. A successful move could extend the rebound from the recent one-month low near $4,500. The next resistance is seen at the 50% retracement level around $4,696. On the downside, immediate support lies at the 100-hour SMA near $4,623. A break below this level could expose the 23.6% Fibonacci level at $4,595, with a deeper decline potentially targeting the broader swing low near $4,505.

Fundamental Overview

The Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy stance continues to support the US Dollar (USD), limiting upside potential for non-yielding assets like gold, which is now on track for a second consecutive weekly loss.

Geopolitical tensions also remain in focus. US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the blockade, instead maintaining naval restrictions until a nuclear agreement is reached. Reports suggesting potential new US military actions against Iran have heightened fears of further escalation, boosting demand for the USD as a safe-haven currency and pressuring gold prices.

Meanwhile, the Fed kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% last week. Notably, the decision recorded the highest level of dissent since 1992, with three policymakers opposing the policy stance. Recent US macroeconomic data reinforces the Fed’s cautious outlook—March inflation data showed continued price pressures alongside strong economic resilience, increasing expectations that interest rates may remain elevated into next year.

According to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 0.7% month-over-month in March, with the annual rate climbing to 3.5% from 2.8% in February. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, increased 3.2% year-over-year, up from 3.0% previously. Additionally, preliminary GDP data showed the US economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.0% in Q1 2026, a significant improvement from the revised 0.5% growth in Q4 2025.

Despite this, expectations for at least one 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in 2026 have risen to over 15%, up sharply from just 1.3% previously. This shift is preventing aggressive USD buying and helping to limit further downside in gold prices.

Market attention now turns to upcoming US economic data releases, starting with the ISM Manufacturing PMI later this week. At the same time, developments in the Middle East will remain a key driver of USD strength and overall gold price direction.

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