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Gold Mining Stocks Dip Despite Surging Gold Prices
Gold prices in the global market continue to surge amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. However, the sharp rise in gold prices has not been followed by gains in the shares of gold mining companies.
According to Bloomberg data on Wednesday (March 11, 2026), spot gold closed 0.3% lower at US$5,176.46 per troy ounce, although it still recorded a 0.7% weekly gain. Earlier in the week, global gold prices briefly climbed above the US$5,200 per troy ounce level.
Despite the strong performance of gold prices, several Indonesian gold mining stocks have recently declined. Shares of PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) fell 1.98% over the past week to Rp3,970 per share as of Wednesday (March 11, 2026). Meanwhile, PT Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk (BRMS) slipped 1.18% to Rp840 per share during the same period.
Two companies under the Merdeka Group also recorded losses. PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk (MDKA) dropped 1.75% to Rp3,370 per share, while PT Merdeka Gold Resources Tbk (EMAS) declined 1.23% to Rp8,000 per share in the past week.
Shares of PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk (AMMN) experienced the sharpest correction, plunging 9.84% to Rp5,500 per share. Meanwhile, PT Archi Indonesia Tbk (ARCI) also weakened 3.67% to Rp1,705 per share over the last seven days.
Global Risk Sentiment Pressures Gold Stocks
Kiwoom Sekuritas Head of Research Liza Camelia Suryanata explained that the decline in gold mining stocks is largely driven by negative global market sentiment related to the escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East.
Potential disruptions to global energy supply are creating macroeconomic risks that are weighing on the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) and global stock markets. As a result, gold mining stocks are being dragged down along with the broader market.
According to Liza, investors are increasingly shifting to a risk-off strategy, which leads them to reduce exposure to equities even though gold itself continues to act as a safe-haven asset.
“This situation is contributing to the decline in gold mining shares despite rising gold commodity prices,” she said on Wednesday (March 11, 2026).
Capital Outflows Add Pressure
A similar view was expressed by Muhammad Wafi, Head of Research at Korea Investment & Sekuritas Indonesia (KISI). He noted that the pressure on gold mining stocks is also caused by broader risk-off sentiment and capital outflows from the stock market.
Wafi added that stocks such as MDKA and AMMN face additional pressure due to their significant exposure to other commodities like nickel and copper, which can affect overall performance.
“Most gold mining stocks are currently fairly valued, and some are even trading at a premium because the market has already priced in the gold rally,” Wafi said.
Strong Gold Prices Support Future Performance
Despite the recent decline in share prices, Wafi believes the financial performance of gold mining companies could exceed their 2025 results, supported by higher average selling prices of gold.
However, operational challenges may limit growth in sales volumes. Production capacity constraints and government-regulated quotas under the RKAB (Work Plan and Budget) could restrict the ability of producers to increase supply quickly.
As a result, physical gold supply often struggles to keep up with the sudden surge in demand.
Positive Outlook for Gold Producers in 2026
Liza remains optimistic about the 2026 outlook for gold mining companies, supported by both external and internal factors.
Externally, rising global gold prices and continuous accumulation by central banks worldwide remain key catalysts. Internally, companies’ ability to increase production volumes and maintain cost efficiency will be crucial for improving financial performance.
She also highlighted that demand for physical gold remains very strong, as reflected by retail premiums that often exceed global spot prices.
To navigate market volatility, Liza emphasized that gold producers must prioritize cost-control strategies to maximize profit margins during the current commodity price rally.
Stock Picks and Target Prices
Meanwhile, Wafi suggested that gold mining companies should focus on reducing maintenance costs and accelerating the expansion of processing facilities.
Companies that operate purely in the gold industry and are currently expanding production capacity could benefit the most from the ongoing surge in gold prices.
Based on this outlook, Wafi recommends BRMS, ANTM, and MDKA as attractive investment options with target prices of:
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BRMS: Rp900 per share
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ANTM: Rp4,000 per share
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MDKA: Rp3,700 per share
These stocks could gain further momentum if the global gold rally continues and production capacity expands in the coming years.