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Gold Prices Remain Vulnerable Amid Rate Pressure and Strong US Dollar
Gold prices continue to face downside risks as global sentiment is weighed down by prolonged high interest rate expectations and a strengthening US dollar. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the precious metal struggles to maintain upward momentum.
According to Bloomberg data on Thursday (April 30, 2026) at 07:24 WIB, spot gold prices stood at $4,560.59 per troy ounce, marking a modest 0.28% daily increase. However, on a weekly basis, gold has declined by 2.84%, signaling persistent selling pressure in the market.
Sutopo Widodo, President Commissioner of HFX International Berjangka, noted that gold remains under pressure due to expectations that central banks will keep interest rates higher for longer. This outlook increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, especially as US Treasury yields rise and the dollar strengthens.
“The expectation of prolonged high interest rates makes gold less attractive, particularly amid rising US bond yields and a stronger dollar,” Sutopo explained.
He highlighted that the 10-year US Treasury yield has climbed to around 4.35%, while the US Dollar Index remains above 98.5. These factors continue to reduce investor appetite for gold and silver, both of which do not generate yield.
Meanwhile, escalating geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have added further uncertainty to the market. Disruptions in global energy supply are keeping oil prices elevated, raising concerns over persistent inflation.
“This inflationary pressure may push central banks, including the Federal Reserve, to maintain a hawkish monetary policy stance for a longer period,” Sutopo added.
Despite a slight rebound in daily trading, the recent uptick in gold prices is seen as a short-term technical correction after entering oversold territory. The recovery is largely driven by bargain hunting rather than a shift in the overall trend.
In the short term, gold prices are expected to remain under pressure. However, the medium- to long-term outlook still points to a bullish trend.
Sutopo cautioned that a deeper correction remains possible, particularly if geopolitical tensions ease. Historically, gold has experienced significant pullbacks—falling حوالي 19% in 2020 from $2,075 to $1,680 per ounce, and dropping as much as 45% between 2011 and 2013.
“Gold could potentially correct by 30% to 45% again if geopolitical tensions subside. This scenario could even unfold within this year,” he concluded.