Gold Below $4050

Gold Prices Stay Under Pressure Below $4,050 as Hawkish Fed Expectations and Stronger US Dollar Weigh

Gold prices remained under selling pressure for a second consecutive session, extending losses below the $4,050 mark during Friday's Asian trading. Rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran continued to keep crude oil prices elevated, fueling inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain higher interest rates for longer. The outlook has supported the US Dollar (USD), which climbed to its highest level in nearly a month on Thursday, reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.

Technical Outlook Signals Further Downside for Gold

From a technical perspective, gold's failure to break above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) earlier this week, followed by the latest decline, suggests that the recent rebound from the $3,960–$3,959 monthly low has lost momentum.

Momentum indicators continue to favor the bears. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains firmly in negative territory with its signal lines well below zero, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 41, indicating that bearish momentum is still intact.

A decisive break below the key psychological level of $4,000, followed by support at $3,980–$3,975, would reinforce the bearish outlook and expose gold to deeper losses. In the near term, intraday price action is likely to be driven by previous reaction levels rather than established technical indicators.

On the upside, immediate resistance is located at the 200-period EMA, currently around $4,158.08. Only a sustained move above this critical resistance level would ease the current bearish pressure and improve the short-term outlook for XAU/USD.

Middle East Escalation Drives Oil Prices Higher

Geopolitical tensions continued to intensify after the U.S. military confirmed it had completed another round of strikes against Iran on Thursday, marking the 13th consecutive night of military operations.

According to the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), the strikes targeted Iranian military command centers, drone storage facilities, communications infrastructure, coastal surveillance sites, and maritime capabilities. Washington said the operations were intended to reduce threats to civilian shipping and commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

The conflict widened further as Iran and its regional allies reportedly launched retaliatory attacks against U.S.-linked military assets in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan. Meanwhile, Iran-backed Houthi forces attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, describing the operation as part of a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia. The attacks raised concerns over global energy supply disruptions and pushed crude oil prices to their highest level since June 11.

Higher Oil Prices Strengthen the Case for a Hawkish Fed

Investors remain concerned that rising energy prices could reignite inflationary pressures, forcing major central banks—including the Federal Reserve—to maintain a more hawkish policy stance.

Supporting that view, data released on Thursday showed U.S. Initial Jobless Claims fell to their lowest level since September 1969, highlighting the resilience of the labor market. The stronger-than-expected employment data gives Federal Reserve policymakers additional room to prioritize inflation control, increasing expectations for at least one more interest rate hike before year-end.

Trump's New Tariffs Boost Safe-Haven US Dollar

Adding to market uncertainty, U.S. President Donald Trump announced sweeping new tariffs ranging from 10% to 12.5% on imports from 60 major trading partners, covering approximately 99.4% of total U.S. imports.

The move has revived fears of a renewed global trade war, dampening risk appetite across financial markets while reinforcing the US Dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency.

A stronger dollar, combined with rising Treasury yields and expectations of tighter monetary policy, continues to pressure gold prices. Unless geopolitical risks intensify enough to trigger stronger safe-haven demand, XAU/USD could remain vulnerable to further downside ahead of next week's FOMC meeting.

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Gold Holds $4100

Gold Holds Near $4,100 as Oil-Driven Inflation Fears Strengthen Hawkish Fed Expectations

Gold prices remained under pressure near the $4,100 psychological level during Thursday's European session as surging crude oil prices fueled inflation concerns and reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish monetary policy stance.

U.S. crude oil climbed to a fresh six-week high near $90 per barrel following renewed escalation in tensions between the United States and Iran. The rally in energy prices has intensified fears that inflation could remain elevated, strengthening market expectations for additional Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Higher interest rates typically reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold by increasing the opportunity cost of holding bullion.

Gold Technical Outlook Remains Constructive

Despite the latest pullback, the XAU/USD pair continues to trade within a one-week uptrend, with immediate resistance clustered between $4,155 and $4,165. This area combines the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the four-hour chart with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April-to-June decline, making it a critical technical pivot for short-term traders.

Momentum indicators continue to favor the bulls. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains around 63, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays in positive territory, suggesting buyers remain in control despite increasing selling pressure near overhead resistance.

A decisive breakout above the $4,165 resistance zone could pave the way toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $4,303.59, reinforcing the bullish outlook. On the downside, key structural support is located at the Fibonacci anchor near $3,940.90, where stronger buying interest could emerge and establish a more sustainable recovery.

Middle East Tensions Continue to Support Oil Prices

Geopolitical risks remain elevated after the United States and Iran exchanged attacks for a twelfth consecutive night. Meanwhile, the Iran-backed Houthi movement in Yemen announced a blockade targeting major shipping routes in the Red Sea, a corridor responsible for transporting approximately 7% of global oil supplies.

The latest disruption adds to reduced shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, heightening concerns over global energy supply. As a result, crude oil has extended its strong monthly rally, increasing fears that higher energy costs could reignite inflation and force central banks to maintain tighter monetary policies for longer.

Fed Rate Expectations Remain Firm

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now see more than a 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates before the end of the year. Those expectations have continued to support U.S. Treasury yields, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield hovering near a two-month high.

However, continued weakness in the U.S. Dollar has provided some support for gold prices, helping limit downside losses. This mixed backdrop suggests traders may prefer waiting for stronger selling pressure before concluding that gold's recent bullish momentum has faded.

Deutsche Bank Sees More Hawkish Fed Pricing

Analysts at Deutsche Bank noted that financial markets have significantly repriced Federal Reserve expectations. Investors are now anticipating a more aggressive policy path, with approximately 34 basis points of tightening priced in for the December meeting, an increase of 2.3 basis points from the previous session.

The bank added that the repricing has contributed to higher real U.S. yields and broader selling across the Treasury market, factors that traditionally weigh on gold prices.

Key Events to Watch

Investors are now focusing on the release of the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims report, which could influence market sentiment during the North American session. Attention will also turn to the highly anticipated European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting, which may trigger increased volatility across currency and precious metals markets.

At the same time, any further escalation in the Middle East conflict is expected to remain a major catalyst for gold prices, creating short-term trading opportunities as investors balance safe-haven demand against expectations for tighter global monetary policy.

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Gold Retreats Slightly

Gold Retreats from Two-Week High as Energy-Driven Inflation Fuels Fed Rate Hike Expectations

Gold prices eased from a two-week high on Wednesday but maintained a bullish intraday bias during the first half of the European session. The precious metal remained supported by a weaker U.S. dollar after renewed optimism that U.S.-Iran diplomatic efforts could help ease energy prices and reduce expectations for a more aggressive Federal Reserve.

Senior negotiators from both the United States and Iran signaled that diplomatic discussions remain ongoing, raising hopes for a potential de-escalation of geopolitical tensions. The prospect of lower energy prices weighed on the U.S. dollar and provided underlying support for gold.

Technical Outlook Remains Constructive Above $4,100

From a technical perspective, XAU/USD continues to trade with a positive bias after breaking above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from mid-June and establishing support above the $4,100 level.

Momentum indicators continue to favor the bulls. The Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) is approaching overbought territory near 69.9, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains firmly in positive territory with the signal line comfortably above zero. These indicators suggest that bullish momentum remains intact, although the rally may be becoming overstretched.

A sustained move above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the four-hour chart would further reinforce the bullish outlook. If buyers maintain control, gold could target the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at $4,163.16, followed by the 61.8% retracement at $4,215.39. Additional upside resistance is located at $4,289.75, with the next major target near the cycle high of $4,384.47.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 200-period SMA near $4,128.26, followed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $4,110.93 and the 23.6% retracement at $4,046.31. A deeper correction could expose the late-June structural low around $3,941.85.

Middle East Tensions Keep Inflation Risks Elevated

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on Sunday that Washington remains open to negotiations with Iran, while Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni urged Pakistan to continue its diplomatic efforts. These developments prompted some profit-taking in the U.S. dollar after its strong rally over the past week.

However, geopolitical tensions remain elevated. The U.S. military confirmed it carried out an eleventh consecutive night of strikes against Iran, targeting aircraft hangars and drone storage facilities. President Donald Trump also warned that U.S. military operations would intensify and target any sites linked to Iran's efforts to rebuild its nuclear program.

Meanwhile, Iran continued launching attacks across the Gulf region, targeting U.S. military assets in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan. Tehran also claimed responsibility for attacks on two oil tankers attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz, while the Iran-backed Houthi movement in Yemen announced a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia.

These escalating developments have heightened concerns over a broader regional conflict and the potential disruption of global energy supplies. As a result, crude oil prices climbed to their highest level since June 12, fueling fears of energy-driven inflation that could force the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish monetary policy stance.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in an 88% probability that the Federal Reserve will deliver at least one additional interest rate hike before the end of the year. Higher interest rate expectations continue to support the U.S. dollar and could limit further gains in non-yielding assets such as gold.

Gold Recovery May Remain Limited

Analysts at OCBC believe gold is likely to remain range-bound in the near term despite recent gains.

They expect the precious metal to experience two-way trading, with any rebound likely to face strong resistance. According to the bank, a more sustainable recovery would require lower crude oil prices, easing real Treasury yields, and reduced expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening.

Until those conditions improve, OCBC expects gold's upside potential to remain limited despite continued geopolitical uncertainty and safe-haven demand.

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Gold Gains Cautiously

 

Gold Prices Rise Cautiously as Fed Rate Bets and US-Iran Tensions Cap Gains

Gold prices edged higher during Tuesday's Asian session after experiencing volatile two-way price action in the previous session. However, the precious metal struggled to build on its recovery, remaining below the $4,050 per troy ounce mark as investors balanced safe-haven demand against expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer.

Despite the ongoing exchange of military strikes between the United States and Iran, diplomatic optimism helped limit further gains in gold. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on Sunday that Washington remains open to negotiations with Tehran, keeping hopes alive for a potential diplomatic resolution to the conflict.

Gold Technical Outlook Remains Bearish Below Key Moving Averages

On the daily chart, XAU/USD traded around $4,046.08, remaining below all major moving averages and reinforcing the short-term bearish outlook.

The 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,063.52 serves as the nearest resistance level, while the 50-day SMA at $4,263.77 represents the next significant upside barrier.

Long-term trend indicators continue to favor sellers, with the 200-day SMA at $4,495.83 and the 100-day SMA at $4,510.55 positioned well above current prices. Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 44, indicating only modest corrective momentum rather than a decisive bullish reversal.

Adding to the negative technical outlook, the 100-day SMA is on the verge of crossing below the 200-day SMA. If confirmed by a daily close, the formation would complete a Bear Cross, a classic bearish signal suggesting that downside risks remain dominant.

Resistance and Support Levels to Watch

A sustained move above the 21-day SMA at $4,063.52 would be the first indication that bearish momentum is fading, exposing the next resistance around the 50-day SMA at $4,263.77.

Beyond that, the 200-day SMA ($4,495.83) and 100-day SMA ($4,510.55) create a strong resistance zone that is likely to limit any broader recovery in the near term.

On the downside, the absence of major technical support immediately below current prices leaves recent swing lows as the primary support area. As long as gold remains below the 21-day SMA, rallies are likely to attract fresh selling pressure.

Falling Oil Prices Ease Inflation Concerns

Gold also found support from the continued pullback in crude oil prices after they retreated from monthly highs near $84.50 per barrel. Oil declined for a second consecutive session as diplomatic efforts to ease tensions between the United States and Iran gained momentum.

An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson confirmed on Monday that international mediators had presented new proposals to Tehran, keeping hopes for diplomacy alive.

Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told CNN that Washington had received signals through multiple channels indicating Iran's willingness to negotiate, although divisions within the Iranian leadership remain.

The diplomatic developments come despite ongoing military exchanges between the two countries. At the same time, Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen announced a maritime blockade targeting Saudi Arabia after both sides exchanged attacks for the first time in several years.

Additional support for gold sentiment came after an Axios report suggested that President Donald Trump is weighing two strategic options: supporting a 10-day ceasefire to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or launching a broader joint military campaign with Israel against Iran, while diplomatic negotiations continue.

Market Focus Shifts to Diplomacy and Fed Outlook

For now, investors remain focused on diplomatic efforts, particularly as the Middle East crisis is expected to dominate discussions among foreign ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) during meetings in Manila, Philippines.

Looking ahead, any developments regarding a potential U.S.-Iran ceasefire are likely to remain the primary catalyst for gold prices, especially as the U.S. economic calendar lacks major high-impact data releases.

Despite geopolitical support, gold's daily technical structure continues to favor the bears. The approaching Bear Cross, combined with persistent negative momentum and expectations for prolonged higher U.S. interest rates, suggests that upside potential may remain limited unless buyers successfully reclaim key resistance levels.

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Gold Stays Subdued

 

Gold Price Holds Near $4,000 as Bearish Bias Persists Amid Rising Inflation Fears and Fed Rate Hike Expectations

From a technical perspective, gold prices continue to trade within a descending channel while remaining below the key 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at approximately $4,495.79, reinforcing the broader bearish outlook despite signs of recent stabilization. The XAU/USD pair is currently trading just beneath the upper boundary of the descending channel near $4,056.51, suggesting that any recovery remains corrective rather than the beginning of a sustained bullish reversal.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned slightly positive, indicating modest upward momentum following the latest rebound. However, bullish momentum remains limited as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to trade below the neutral 50 level in slightly negative territory. A decisive breakout above the descending channel resistance would be required to confirm a stronger recovery and pave the way for a move toward the 200-day SMA near $4,495.79.

On the downside, the lower boundary of the descending channel around $3,662.99 serves as the next major support level. A decline back toward this zone would reinforce the prevailing bearish structure and could expose gold to deeper losses if support fails to hold.

Middle East Escalation Fuels Inflation Concerns

Geopolitical tensions intensified over the weekend after the United States announced the completion of its ninth consecutive night of military strikes against Iran following the death of another U.S. service member in Iraq. U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the latest operations were carried out in honor of American personnel killed in recent days.

The U.S. Central Command also said the strikes were aimed at degrading Iran's military capabilities used to target commercial vessels and civilian shipping passing through the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Iran launched ballistic missiles and one-way attack drones targeting U.S. allies across the region, with Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, and Iraq reporting fresh waves of attacks.

The escalating conflict has significantly increased the risk of a broader regional war, prompting traders to maintain a geopolitical risk premium in commodity markets.

At the same time, the United States has tightened its naval blockade of Iranian ports and imposed additional restrictions on previously approved oil export licenses. Meanwhile, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has intensified efforts to monitor and restrict maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

These developments pushed crude oil prices to their highest levels since June 12, reigniting inflation concerns and strengthening market expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates in 2026.

Adding to the hawkish outlook, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said on Friday that interest rates may need to move higher if inflation remains persistent. Her comments provided additional support for the U.S. dollar, limiting demand for non-yielding assets such as gold.

Fed Speakers and Geopolitical Headlines Remain Key Drivers

With no major U.S. economic data scheduled for Monday, investors are likely to focus on comments from influential Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) officials for fresh guidance on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook.

The current fundamental backdrop suggests that traders should wait for stronger buying momentum before confirming that XAU/USD has established a meaningful short-term bottom. At the same time, incoming geopolitical developments from the Middle East are expected to keep financial markets volatile, creating short-term trading opportunities in the gold market.

Keywords: Gold Price, XAU/USD, Gold Forecast, Federal Reserve, Fed Rate Hike, Inflation, US Dollar, Middle East Conflict, Iran, Strait of Hormuz, Technical Analysis, Gold Market Outlook.

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Gold Holds Recovery

Gold Price Holds Recovery Near $4,000 as Fed Rate Hike Bets Strengthen

Gold prices (XAU/USD) continued to hold onto recovery gains near the key $4,000 per ounce level on Friday. However, the precious metal's upside remained limited as growing expectations of another Federal Reserve interest rate hike, coupled with stronger US economic data and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, boosted the US dollar and weighed on non-yielding assets.

Crude oil prices have surged more than 10% this week after renewed military clashes between the United States and Iran intensified concerns over global energy supplies. The rally in oil has revived inflation fears, reinforcing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer. This outlook continues to support the greenback while reducing demand for gold.

Gold Technical Outlook Remains Bearish

From a technical perspective, XAU/USD continues to trade within a descending channel and remains below the critical 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), reinforcing the bearish short-term outlook.

Although the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned slightly positive, suggesting fading downside momentum, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains near 40, indicating stabilization rather than the beginning of a sustained bullish reversal.

Any additional upside is likely to encounter initial resistance near the upper boundary of the descending channel at $4,082.74. A stronger resistance zone lies around the 200-day SMA at $4,495.44.

On the downside, the lower boundary of the descending channel near $3,661.05 serves as key technical support. A decisive break below this level would confirm the prevailing bearish trend and expose gold to deeper losses.

US-Iran Conflict Revives Inflation Concerns

The conflict between the United States and Iran entered a more dangerous phase on Thursday as both sides exchanged increasingly intense attacks.

Iran reportedly expanded its military operations beyond conventional military targets, with officials in Bandar Abbas confirming that civilian infrastructure, including electricity facilities and railway stations, had been hit. Tehran retaliated by launching missile and drone attacks targeting Gulf states allied with the United States.

Meanwhile, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz escalated after US forces intercepted commercial vessels attempting to bypass the naval blockade surrounding Iran.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also threatened to widen the conflict by targeting additional regional energy supply routes. Reports indicated that Iran had instructed Yemen's Houthi forces to prepare for possible disruptions to Red Sea oil shipping routes.

These developments helped crude oil prices remain near one-month highs, raising concerns that higher energy costs could reignite global inflation and complicate the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path.

Strong US Data Reinforces Fed Rate Hike Expectations

Recent US economic data further strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could deliver another interest rate increase before year-end.

The US Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims fell to 208,000 in the week ending July 11, coming in below market expectations and highlighting the continued resilience of the US labor market.

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index jumped sharply from 10.3 to 41.4 in July, marking its highest reading since November 2021 and signaling a significant acceleration in regional manufacturing activity. The report also showed continued increases in price-related components, underscoring persistent inflationary pressures.

Federal Reserve officials maintained their hawkish stance.

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said the recent moderation in consumer and producer inflation was insufficient to provide meaningful relief for US households and argued that slightly higher interest rates may still be necessary to restore price stability.

Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson also stated that he remains open to additional rate hikes if inflation fails to improve in the coming months.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in nearly a 75% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in December.

Gold Outlook Remains Cautious

The combination of rising oil prices, persistent inflation risks, stronger US economic indicators, and hawkish Federal Reserve commentary continues to favor the US dollar and limits gold's recovery potential.

Investors are now focused on Friday's US economic calendar, which includes Building Permits, Housing Starts, Industrial Production, the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and Inflation Expectations. These reports, along with additional remarks from Federal Reserve officials, are expected to influence the US dollar's direction and determine whether gold prices can sustain their recovery near the $4,000 level or extend losses for a second consecutive week.

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Oil Pressures Gold

Gold Prices Slip as Rising Oil Fuels Inflation Concerns and Supports Stronger US Dollar

Gold prices declined on Thursday as another surge in crude oil prices reignited inflation concerns, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates elevated for longer. The stronger US dollar and higher Treasury yield outlook reduced demand for non-yielding assets such as gold.

As of 08:31 WIB, spot gold (XAU/USD) fell 0.59% to $4,036.62 per troy ounce, while Gold Futures slipped 0.24% to $4,042.10.

Softer US Inflation Eases Pressure on the Federal Reserve

US producer prices unexpectedly fell 0.3% in June, defying market expectations for no monthly change. The weaker Producer Price Index (PPI) followed softer Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released earlier this week, reinforcing signs that underlying inflationary pressures are easing.

The back-to-back inflation reports initially strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may delay further interest rate hikes, providing a supportive backdrop for precious metals. However, investors largely overlooked the backward-looking inflation data as renewed conflict in the Middle East pushed crude oil prices higher for a fourth consecutive session.

The renewed rally in oil has revived concerns that rising energy costs could feed into future inflation, limiting the Fed's flexibility to ease monetary policy despite recent progress in reducing price pressures.

While lower inflation would normally weaken the US dollar and support gold by reducing expectations of tighter monetary policy, the sharp rebound in oil prices has cast doubt on whether the current disinflation trend can be sustained.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated this week that policymakers remain committed to bringing inflation back to the central bank's 2% target, emphasizing their readiness to adjust interest rates if price pressures prove more persistent than expected. He also dismissed concerns that rapid investment in artificial intelligence alone would trigger broader inflationary pressures.

Meanwhile, Fed Governor Lisa Cook said she would support additional policy action if inflation remains elevated, while New York Fed President John Williams stated that current interest rates are "well positioned" to return inflation to target, highlighting the central bank's cautious approach despite encouraging inflation data.

Oil Rally Revives Inflation Risks

Despite improving inflation data, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to keep investors on edge.

The United States launched a fifth consecutive day of strikes against Iranian targets, while President Donald Trump pledged to intensify military operations until Tehran halts attacks on commercial shipping and reopens the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) extended their recent gains as markets monitored potential supply disruptions through the critical shipping route, fueling concerns that higher energy prices could once again drive broader inflation.

A sustained increase in oil prices could complicate the Federal Reserve's policy outlook by raising the risk that inflation remains above target for longer. Should policymakers maintain higher interest rates for an extended period, stronger US Treasury yields and a firmer US dollar would likely weigh on gold demand while making the precious metal more expensive for overseas buyers.

Analysts at ANZ said the key question is whether the Federal Reserve views the recent surge in energy prices as a temporary supply shock or as a development that could spill over into broader inflation, potentially influencing future monetary policy decisions.

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Gold Eases Lower

 

Gold Prices Slip as Oil Rally Revives Inflation Concerns and Clouds Fed Outlook

Gold prices edged lower on Thursday as investors reassessed the inflation outlook following another surge in crude oil prices. Rising energy costs have renewed concerns that inflationary pressures could persist, complicating the Federal Reserve's policy path despite softer-than-expected U.S. consumer inflation data released earlier this week.

Gold Declines as Investors Shift Focus to Inflation Risks

As of 1:15 PM WIB, spot gold (XAU/USD) fell 0.6% to $4,028.43 per troy ounce, while Gold Futures slipped 0.8% to $4,035.50. Meanwhile, silver (XAG/USD) dropped 0.5% to $58.35 per ounce, and platinum (XPT/USD) eased 0.1% to $1,629.89 per ounce.

The pullback follows a strong rally earlier in the week, when gold climbed more than 2% after weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a less aggressive monetary stance.

Softer U.S. Inflation Supports Gold, but Rising Oil Prices Offset Optimism

June's U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded the first monthly decline in consumer prices since 2020, easing inflation concerns and pushing Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar lower. The softer inflation report prompted traders to reduce expectations of near-term Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, providing significant support for precious metals.

However, market sentiment quickly shifted as crude oil prices resumed their upward momentum. Investors are increasingly concerned that higher energy costs could reignite inflationary pressures, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for longer than previously anticipated.

Oil Rally Keeps Federal Reserve Policy in the Spotlight

Crude oil prices extended gains for a third consecutive session after President Donald Trump maintained a naval blockade around Iranian ports and warned of further military escalation unless Tehran returned to negotiations. The heightened geopolitical tensions have intensified concerns over global energy supplies, driving oil prices higher.

Persistently elevated energy prices could complicate the Federal Reserve's efforts to bring inflation back to its long-term target. While gold is traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, higher interest rates and stronger bond yields typically reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.

Federal Reserve officials have welcomed the recent moderation in inflation but continue to emphasize that additional evidence is needed before they can confidently conclude that inflation is moving sustainably toward the central bank's target.

ANZ Sees Limited Near-Term Upside for Gold

Analysts at ANZ expect gold prices to remain range-bound in the short term as expectations for at least one Federal Reserve rate hike this year continue to cap upside momentum. Nevertheless, they believe buying interest is likely to re-emerge during deeper price corrections, arguing that the precious metal's long-term fundamentals remain firmly supportive.

Markets Await U.S. Producer Price Data

Investors are now turning their attention to the upcoming U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which could provide fresh insights into inflation trends and the Federal Reserve's next policy move.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets currently assign a 58% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September, down from approximately 76% before Tuesday's softer CPI report, highlighting the market's evolving expectations for U.S. monetary policy.

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Gold Above $4000

 

Gold Recovers Above $4,000 as Markets Await US CPI Data and Fed Chair Warsh Testimony

Gold prices extended their intraday recovery on Tuesday, climbing back above the $4,000 mark after touching their lowest level in nearly two weeks during the Asian session. The rebound was supported by a pause in the US dollar's two-day rally as investors turned cautious ahead of the release of the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's testimony before Congress.

The weaker US dollar provided short-term support for bullion, although broader market sentiment remains cautious as traders assess the outlook for inflation and future Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.

Gold Technical Outlook Remains Bearish Despite Recovery

From a technical perspective, gold continues to trade well below its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), maintaining a broader bearish outlook within a descending channel pattern.

Momentum indicators suggest selling pressure is beginning to ease. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned slightly positive, indicating that bearish momentum is fading. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains around 39, below the neutral 50 level, suggesting that the current rebound is still fragile rather than the start of a confirmed bullish reversal.

Any further upside is likely to face strong selling pressure around the $4,100 resistance level. A sustained breakout above that area could trigger short-covering activity and lift gold toward the upper boundary of the descending channel near $4,221.

Additional buying momentum could then target the key 200-day SMA at $4,495.01. A decisive move above this level would invalidate the current bearish outlook.

On the downside, immediate support is located near $3,761.01, around the lower boundary of the channel. A decisive break below this level could accelerate losses and expose deeper downside risks.

US CPI and Fed Testimony Take Center Stage

Escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, combined with growing expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike, have continued to support the US dollar, prompting traders to remain cautious about chasing further gains in gold.

Markets are now focused on the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) later today. Headline inflation is expected to ease, largely reflecting lower gasoline prices during June. However, investors will pay closer attention to the Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is considered the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of underlying inflation trends.

Adding to market volatility, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver his first semiannual monetary policy testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. His comments are expected to provide fresh guidance on the Fed's interest rate outlook and could significantly influence short-term movements in both the US dollar and gold prices.

Middle East Conflict Keeps Inflation Risks Elevated

Meanwhile, renewed geopolitical tensions continue to support safe-haven demand while also boosting energy prices.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and escalating military confrontation between the United States and Iran pushed crude oil prices to their highest level in nearly a month, reigniting concerns that higher energy costs could keep inflation elevated and force the Federal Reserve to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer.

The US military launched a third consecutive night of strikes against Iranian targets after President Donald Trump reinstated a naval blockade on Iranian ports. In response, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targeted US facilities across the region, while two UAE oil tankers were reportedly struck by Iranian cruise missiles in the Strait of Hormuz.

The escalating conflict prompted traders to quickly price in additional geopolitical risk, strengthening demand for the US dollar.

Despite gold's latest rebound, the overall fundamental backdrop suggests that rallies may continue to attract sellers. As a result, the XAU/USD pair remains vulnerable to another decline toward its year-to-date low around $3,943–$3,942, last recorded on June 30.

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Gold Below $4100

Gold Price Trims Losses but Remains Below $4,100 as Hawkish Fed Bets Limit Recovery

Gold prices recovered part of their intraday losses during the first half of the European session on Tuesday, although the precious metal remained under pressure for a second consecutive day and continued trading below the key $4,100 level. A modest pullback in the US Dollar (USD) provided temporary support for bullion, but the broader market backdrop continued to favor sellers, limiting any meaningful upside.

From a technical perspective, XAU/USD remains firmly below its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) while continuing to trade within a descending parallel channel, reinforcing the prevailing bearish trend. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the 40 mark, suggesting weak momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains slightly positive despite easing from recent highs. These indicators point to only moderate downside momentum but fail to signal a sustained bullish reversal.

Gold Technical Outlook: Key Support and Resistance Levels

The first major support level is located at the psychologically significant $4,000 mark, followed by the year-to-date low near $3,942. A decisive break below this area could expose the lower boundary of the descending channel around $3,782.83, where bargain hunters may attempt to stabilize prices if selling pressure intensifies.

On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at the upper boundary of the channel near $4,291.51. A sustained move above this level would be required to weaken the current bearish outlook. However, the more significant resistance remains the 200-day SMA around $4,494.65, which must be reclaimed before confirming a longer-term bullish trend reversal.

Middle East Conflict Fuels Inflation Fears and Supports Hawkish Fed Expectations

Geopolitical tensions escalated over the weekend after the United States launched large-scale strikes against Iran, prompting Tehran to retaliate with missile attacks targeting U.S. military bases in the Gulf region. In addition, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reportedly attacked another commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz and declared the strategic waterway closed.

The renewed conflict has intensified uncertainty across global energy markets, driving crude oil prices sharply higher and reviving concerns over energy-driven inflation. Rising oil prices have strengthened market expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain higher interest rates or even tighten monetary policy further to contain inflationary pressures.

According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in nearly a 90% probability of another Federal Reserve interest rate hike before the end of the year. This outlook continues to support higher U.S. Treasury yields and has helped the U.S. dollar rebound from last week's multi-day lows, reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.

However, USD bulls remain cautious ahead of fresh economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials. Investors are particularly focused on Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's congressional testimony later this week for additional guidance on the central bank's policy outlook.

US Inflation Data Could Determine Gold's Next Move

Market participants are also closely watching the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday. These key inflation reports are expected to play a crucial role in shaping expectations for future Federal Reserve policy and influencing short-term movements in both the U.S. dollar and gold prices.

A stronger-than-expected inflation reading would likely reinforce expectations for tighter monetary policy, boosting the dollar and putting additional pressure on XAU/USD. Conversely, weaker inflation figures could ease concerns over further rate hikes, providing temporary support for gold.

Despite the potential for short-term volatility, the broader fundamental backdrop remains unfavorable for bullion. As long as expectations for a hawkish Federal Reserve persist and geopolitical tensions continue to support higher energy prices, any recovery in gold is likely to face selling pressure and remain limited.

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Gold Faces Pressure

Gold Price Vulnerable Near $4,100 as Fed Rate Hike Bets and Iran Risks Pressure Bullion

Gold prices remained under pressure near the $4,100 level during the European session as investors weighed expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes alongside renewed geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran.

The precious metal slipped to a fresh intraday low in early European trading, with sellers attempting to extend losses below the key $4,100 support level. Although the U.S. Dollar had weakened following Wednesday's less-hawkish FOMC Minutes, the greenback recovered from its one-week low, supported by growing expectations of Fed interest rate hikes in 2026 and persistent geopolitical uncertainty.

From a technical perspective, gold continues to trade within a broader descending channel and remains below its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), keeping the short-term outlook bearish despite signs of improving momentum. The upper boundary of the channel near $4,156.03 represents the first major resistance level, while the 200-day SMA, currently positioned around $4,493.66, reinforces a strong technical ceiling above spot prices.

Momentum indicators suggest a potential corrective rebound. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has turned positive, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, indicating that bullish momentum is gradually improving within the broader downtrend. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains near 45, signaling only moderate buying interest rather than a decisive bullish reversal.

On the downside, today's swing low around $4,109–$4,108 serves as immediate support. A stronger support zone lies near the lower boundary of the descending channel at approximately $3,758.88, where buyers could return if selling pressure intensifies.

Fed Rate Hike Expectations Continue to Weigh on Gold

Growing expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates in 2026 continue to pressure bullion, suggesting that gold's recent rebound from the $4,020 area—its one-week low recorded on Wednesday—has started to lose momentum.

The June 16–17 FOMC Minutes, released on Wednesday, revealed that policymakers remain divided over the future path of monetary policy. While several officials indicated that the federal funds rate could finish the year within or slightly below the current target range, many also acknowledged that additional policy tightening may still be necessary if inflation risks remain elevated.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders continue to price in nearly an 85% probability of at least one Federal Reserve interest rate hike before the end of the year, reinforcing expectations that higher borrowing costs could limit gold's upside potential.

US-Iran Conflict Keeps Safe-Haven Demand Alive

Fresh military tensions between the United States and Iran have once again shifted investor attention toward rising oil prices and their potential impact on global inflation and monetary policy.

The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed that American forces carried out airstrikes on Thursday targeting approximately 90 Iranian military sites, including air defense systems, missile installations, and naval logistics facilities along Iran's coastline. In response, Iran launched missiles and drones targeting U.S. military installations in Bahrain and Kuwait while warning that additional American attacks would trigger a broader regional response, further complicating diplomatic efforts.

Despite the escalation, market sentiment improved slightly after U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters that Iran had reached out to negotiate a deal with Washington. A White House official also reaffirmed that the United States remains committed to the existing memorandum of understanding with Iran.

These mixed geopolitical signals have left investors cautious, suggesting that stronger follow-through buying will be required to confirm that gold has established a short-term bottom. Even so, XAU/USD remains on track to post a modest weekly loss as traders continue to monitor developments surrounding the evolving US-Iran conflict and the Federal Reserve's policy outlook.

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Gold Prices Slip

Gold Prices Slip as Iran Tensions Strengthen US Dollar

Gold prices edged lower on Thursday as a stronger US Dollar continued to weigh on the precious metal following renewed military tensions between the United States and Iran. Escalating geopolitical risks have fueled concerns over persistent inflation, reinforcing expectations that interest rates could remain elevated for longer.

Meanwhile, the minutes from the Federal Reserve's June policy meeting provided little support for gold, revealing that policymakers remain divided over whether additional interest rate hikes will be necessary this year.

Spot gold fell 0.2% to $4,070.81 per troy ounce, while gold futures slipped 0.1% to $4,079.47 per ounce as of 09:46 GMT.

Gold has now posted losses for three consecutive sessions after renewed US-Iran military activity pushed crude oil prices sharply higher. Rising energy costs have intensified concerns that inflation could remain stubbornly high, prompting investors to expect the Federal Reserve to maintain restrictive monetary policy for an extended period.

The US Dollar benefited from these inflation concerns, with the US Dollar Index remaining close to the 13-month high reached in June.

"Any sustained recovery in energy prices would reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer to combat persistent inflation," ANZ analysts said in a research note.

Military tensions escalated earlier this week after the United States launched a series of strikes against Iran. President Donald Trump also declared that the ceasefire with Iran had ended, following Iranian attacks targeting vessels attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Other precious metals also traded mostly lower, extending recent declines alongside gold. Spot silver dropped 0.5% to $58.0060 per ounce, while spot platinum gained 0.5% to $1,594.00 per ounce.

Fed Minutes Highlight Inflation Concerns

The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes, released on Wednesday, suggested that policymakers remain divided over the need for additional interest rate increases in 2026. While opinions differed on the policy outlook, officials broadly acknowledged that inflation remains a significant challenge.

The minutes also revealed growing concern among Fed officials that persistent inflationary pressures could eventually justify another rate hike later this year, particularly if price growth shows little sign of easing.

US inflation has accelerated noticeably since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict in late February, with consumer prices continuing to run well above the Federal Reserve's long-term 2% inflation target.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh recently reiterated the central bank's commitment to restoring inflation to its target, emphasizing that policymakers remain prepared to keep monetary policy restrictive until inflation returns to sustainable levels.

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Gold Below $4100

Gold Falls Below $4,100 as Middle East Tensions Boost US Dollar Ahead of Fed Minutes

Gold prices extended their losses during the European session on Wednesday, with XAU/USD falling below the key $4,100 level as renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East fueled demand for the U.S. dollar. Investors adopted a cautious stance after U.S. President Donald Trump declared at the NATO Summit that the memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed with Iran to end the conflict was "over," adding that he had no intention of resuming negotiations with Tehran.

The stronger U.S. dollar, supported by renewed safe-haven inflows, weighed heavily on the precious metal. Risk sentiment deteriorated as markets reacted to the latest escalation between the United States and Iran, prompting investors to shift capital toward the Greenback.

Gold Technical Analysis: Bearish Momentum Remains Intact

On the daily chart, XAU/USD traded at $4,129.61, maintaining a bearish outlook as the price remained below all major moving averages. Spot gold continued to trade beneath the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,139.93, while the 50-day SMA at $4,373.87, 200-day SMA at $4,491.31, and 100-day SMA at $4,611.31 reinforced a strong long-term resistance zone.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) stood at 44.41, remaining below the neutral 50 level and signaling weakening bullish momentum rather than oversold conditions.

Immediate resistance is located at the 21-day SMA near $4,139.93, followed by the 50-day SMA at $4,373.87. Additional resistance lies at the 200-day SMA and 100-day SMA, which together form a significant supply zone. Unless gold can reclaim these technical levels, the downside bias is likely to remain intact. With no major structural support currently visible, further declines remain possible unless renewed buying interest emerges.

US-Iran Conflict Revives Safe-Haven Demand for the Dollar

Gold's brief recovery came to an end ahead of the European market open as the U.S. dollar rebounded following Tuesday's sell-off. The Greenback regained its safe-haven appeal after geopolitical tensions between Washington and Tehran intensified once again.

The renewed conflict also pushed crude oil prices sharply higher, reviving inflation concerns and reducing investors' appetite for risk assets.

According to reports, the U.S. military launched a fresh wave of strikes against Iran on Tuesday while revoking export licenses that had allowed Iranian oil sales after three oil tankers were struck by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz.

In response, Iran's chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, accused the United States of violating key provisions of the ceasefire memorandum of understanding. Meanwhile, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed it had targeted 85 U.S. military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait in retaliation for the alleged ceasefire breach and announced that it had shot down a U.S. MQ-9 drone over southern Iran.

Fed Minutes in Focus as Rate Hike Expectations Increase

Beyond geopolitical developments, investors are closely watching the release of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes for fresh guidance on the central bank's interest rate outlook.

Despite weaker-than-expected U.S. ISM Services PMI and Nonfarm Payrolls data, markets have recently increased expectations that the Fed could resume tightening monetary policy. Rising oil prices and renewed inflation risks linked to the Middle East conflict have further strengthened this view.

According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the probability of a September interest rate hike has climbed to more than 63%, up from roughly 57% a day earlier.

Looking ahead, gold prices are expected to remain highly sensitive to both geopolitical developments surrounding the U.S.-Iran conflict and any policy signals emerging from the Fed minutes. A stronger U.S. dollar and higher Treasury yield expectations could continue to pressure bullion, while any escalation in geopolitical risks may provide temporary safe-haven support for the precious metal.

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Gold Holds Weakness

Gold Prices Stay Under Pressure as Rising US Bond Yields, Stronger Dollar, and Hormuz Tensions Weigh on Bullion

Gold prices remained under pressure during the European session on Tuesday, although the precious metal continued to trade above the key $4,100 level. Renewed geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz lifted crude oil prices, reviving inflation concerns that pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher and strengthened the U.S. dollar, adding fresh pressure to non-yielding bullion.

The XAU/USD pair maintained a bearish short-term outlook after remaining below its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,489.97 while continuing to trade inside a descending channel. Although the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned positive—with the MACD line crossing above the signal line and the histogram expanding into positive territory—the bullish momentum remains insufficient to reverse the prevailing downtrend.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 44.16, remaining below the neutral 50 mark and signaling that bearish sentiment still dominates despite the recent rebound.

Gold Technical Outlook: Key Support and Resistance Levels

The $4,100 level continues to act as immediate support for gold prices. A sustained break below this area could expose the lower boundary of the descending channel near $3,844.34, where stronger buying interest is expected to emerge.

On the upside, immediate resistance is located around the upper boundary of the descending channel near $4,296.64. Additional resistance is seen at the 200-day SMA around $4,489.97, followed by a stronger structural barrier near $4,572.41.

Fed Rate Expectations Could Limit Gold's Downside

Despite the current bearish pressure, expectations for fewer Federal Reserve interest rate hikes could prevent a deeper decline in gold prices.

Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz remain elevated as Tehran seeks to strengthen its strategic control over one of the world's most critical shipping lanes. Iranian officials continue to defend proposed transit charges as fees for maritime security, vessel monitoring, and environmental protection rather than tolls, despite strong opposition from the United States.

Adding to market concerns, a maritime agency reported that an oil tanker was struck by an unidentified projectile while transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The incident has raised doubts over the fragile peace agreement between the United States and Iran, providing additional support for crude oil prices and fueling inflation concerns.

Weak US Jobs Data Reduces Fed Tightening Bets

Meanwhile, weaker-than-expected U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June prompted investors to scale back expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening.

Market participants have shifted their outlook from anticipating one or two rate hikes in 2026 to expecting between zero and one increase, limiting further gains in the U.S. dollar and reducing bearish pressure on gold.

Recent economic data also offered little support for the greenback. The ISM Services PMI eased to 54.0 in June from 54.5 in May, matching market expectations but failing to provide fresh momentum for the U.S. currency.

FOMC Minutes in Focus as Investors Await Fresh Policy Signals

Investors are now refraining from making aggressive directional bets ahead of the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes, which are expected to provide additional guidance on the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy path.

Geopolitical developments in the Middle East will also remain a major driver for the U.S. dollar and gold prices in the coming sessions.

For now, the broader fundamental backdrop suggests traders should wait for stronger selling pressure before concluding that gold's recent rebound from its yearly low has completely lost momentum.

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Gold Holds Firm

Gold Price Holds Near Daily Lows as Hormuz Tensions Support US Dollar, While Dovish Fed Outlook Limits Downside

Gold prices traded near their daily lows on Monday, although losses remained limited as fading expectations of further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes offset renewed safe-haven demand for the US dollar amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

The precious metal recovered modestly from intraday lows but remained below the two-week high reached earlier in the session. Investors continued to weigh geopolitical risks against the prospect of a less aggressive monetary policy stance from the Federal Reserve.

Technical Outlook: Gold Remains Constructive Above Key Support

Friday's breakout above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the four-hour chart, combined with a move above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April-to-June decline, reinforced bullish momentum for XAU/USD.

Momentum indicators continue to favor buyers. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains elevated near 63, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays in positive territory, suggesting that the broader uptrend remains intact despite the current consolidation below recent highs.

On the downside, immediate support is located around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $4,164, followed by the 100-period SMA near $4,147. A decisive break below this level could expose the next major structural support around $3,940.

On the upside, initial resistance stands at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near $4,302, followed by the 50% retracement at $4,415 and the 61.8% Fibonacci level around $4,527. A sustained breakout above these levels could pave the way toward the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $4,686, with the April swing high near $4,889 serving as the next major bullish target.

Geopolitical Risks and Fed Expectations Shape Gold Outlook

Persistent buying by global central banks continues to provide a strong underlying support for gold, helping limit losses after the precious metal ended a three-session winning streak.

Despite a fragile temporary agreement between the United States and Iran, geopolitical tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remain elevated. Iran recently announced plans to introduce new service fees for vessels passing through the strategically important waterway, while the United States rejected the proposal. The renewed uncertainty has boosted demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, creating short-term headwinds for gold.

However, expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes have weakened following softer-than-expected US employment data released last Thursday. The latest labor market figures pointed to easing employment conditions, reinforcing speculation that the Fed could adopt a more patient approach toward monetary policy.

At the same time, declining crude oil prices have eased inflation concerns, reducing the likelihood that interest rates will remain elevated for an extended period. This shift has prevented the US dollar from gaining stronger upside momentum and has helped cushion gold's downside.

Central Bank Demand Continues to Support Gold Prices

Long-term demand for gold remains robust, driven largely by continued central bank purchases.

A recent World Gold Council survey revealed that central banks are increasingly viewing gold as a strategic hedge against inflation, financial instability, and geopolitical uncertainty. Nearly 90% of respondents expect global central bank gold reserves to increase over the next 12 months.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) reported that gold has officially surpassed US Treasuries as a share of global reserve assets, highlighting the metal's growing importance in international reserve management.

In addition, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) increased its gold holdings by 320,000 ounces in May, marking the 19th consecutive month of reserve accumulation.

Market Focus Shifts to US ISM Services PMI and Fed Speakers

Investors are now turning their attention to the upcoming US ISM Services PMI report, along with speeches from several influential Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) officials. These events could provide fresh clues about the future direction of US monetary policy and influence demand for both the US dollar and gold.

Despite short-term volatility, the broader fundamental backdrop continues to favor higher gold prices. Ongoing central bank buying, persistent geopolitical uncertainty, and easing expectations for additional Fed tightening suggest that any intraday pullbacks are likely to attract buyers, keeping the broader bullish outlook intact.

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