Gold Rally Catalysts

Gold Needs These 3 Catalysts to Rally Again

Gold prices slipped to their lowest level in several weeks as the precious metal continues to struggle for direction amid a macroeconomic environment dominated by high real yields, a strong US dollar, and shifting inflation expectations.

XAU/USD fell 0.9% today and traded below the $4,300 level, while Gold Futures declined as much as 1.2%.

“We expect the next support level to be around $4,000,” Yardeni said in a recent note.

The latest decline reflects market conditions where safe-haven demand is not strong enough to offset pressure from tighter financial conditions and ongoing uncertainty surrounding the policy direction of major central banks.

Jefferies analyst Fahad Tariq argued that although gold has significantly lagged behind other commodities this year, its long-term structural outlook remains intact. The brokerage highlighted a clear performance divergence, with Copper Futures gaining around 15.6% year-to-date, compared to gold’s modest 3.5% increase.

Copper has been supported by strong US industrial demand, supply scarcity, and concerns over supply security. Meanwhile, gold has underperformed despite its traditional role as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation.

Gold’s short-term weakness is largely tied to macroeconomic headwinds. Higher US interest rates and expectations that monetary policy will remain restrictive for longer have reduced the appeal of non-yielding assets. At the same time, rising oil prices have complicated the inflation outlook, making central banks more cautious about signaling early policy easing. A resilient US dollar has added further pressure by making gold more expensive for overseas buyers.

XAU/USD Outlook

Looking ahead, Jefferies maintained its constructive long-term outlook, keeping its 2027 gold price forecast unchanged at $5,200 per ounce. However, the firm emphasized that a stronger rally will require a major shift in macroeconomic conditions rather than gradual improvements in fund flows or market sentiment.

Three key catalysts stand out as essential conditions for gold to rebound.

First, an official resolution to the US-Iran conflict would reduce geopolitical risk premiums and help stabilize energy markets.

Second, lower oil prices would ease inflationary pressure and improve the outlook for monetary policy easing.

Third, a credible pivot toward lower interest rates by major central banks would reduce real yields and restore gold’s relative attractiveness.

Until these catalysts emerge, gold is likely to remain trapped in a narrow trading range, with macroeconomic headwinds continuing to outweigh its long-term structural support.

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Gold Awaits Payrolls

Gold Prices Extend Losses Ahead of US NFP Report

Gold prices continued to trade in negative territory on Friday’s early European session, hovering near the US$4,450 level as investors awaited the highly anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and monitored escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The precious metal remained under pressure as traders closely watched developments surrounding the US-Iran peace negotiations and the upcoming May US employment data, which could provide fresh direction for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.

Gold Technical Analysis Signals Ongoing Bearish Momentum

On the daily chart, XAU/USD maintained a short-term bearish bias as prices continued trading below the 100-day Moving Average and beneath the midpoint of the Bollinger Bands, preserving the broader downward trend.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remained near 40, indicating weak momentum without entering oversold territory. This suggests sellers are still controlling the market while leaving room for additional downside movement before signs of exhaustion emerge.

On the upside, initial resistance is located near the Bollinger Bands midpoint around US$4,545. Stronger resistance levels are seen near the upper Bollinger Band at US$4,715 and the 100-day Moving Average around US$4,795 if a rebound develops.

Meanwhile, the first major support level stands near the lower Bollinger Band around US$4,370. A decisive break below this zone could trigger a deeper retracement, while holding above support may indicate a period of consolidation within the current bearish structure.

US-Iran Tensions Continue to Pressure Gold Market

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on Wednesday that “no real progress” had been achieved in negotiations aimed at ending the Middle East conflict. He added that communication channels with Washington remain open but warned that any Israeli attack on Beirut during its campaign against Hezbollah could trigger a “full resumption” of the US-Iran conflict.

Despite Iran’s cautious stance, US President Donald Trump claimed that ceasefire negotiations were entering their “final stages.” On Wednesday, Iran reportedly launched missiles and drones toward Kuwait and Bahrain following a US strike on an oil tanker heading toward the Islamic Republic.

The lack of progress in ceasefire talks following the latest escalation in violence has intensified concerns over persistent inflation and higher interest rates, both of which continue to weigh on non-yielding assets such as gold.

Bart Melek of TD Securities noted that rising inflation expectations linked to supply shocks have pushed Treasury yields higher, strengthened the US dollar, and increased market expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike by late 2026.

US Nonfarm Payrolls Data in Focus

Investors are now turning their attention to the upcoming US labor market report. Economists expect the May Nonfarm Payrolls report to show an increase of 85,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain steady at 4.3%.

Any weaker-than-expected labor market data could pressure the US dollar and provide short-term support for gold and other US dollar-denominated commodities.

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Gold Prices Surge

Gold Prices Surge 1.7% as US Dollar and Treasury Yields Weaken

Global gold prices rallied sharply on Thursday after the US dollar weakened and US Treasury yields declined, boosting investor demand for safe-haven assets amid renewed optimism over easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Spot gold climbed 1.7% to US$4,505.35 per ounce at 9:05 a.m. New York time, while US gold futures for August delivery advanced 1.5% to US$4,532.80 per ounce.

The precious metal gained momentum after Israel and Lebanon announced a ceasefire agreement on Wednesday, raising hopes that negotiations between the United States and Iran could also move toward a peaceful resolution.

The development triggered a sharp decline in global oil prices, which fell more than 3% as traders anticipated smoother operations through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route for global oil shipments, if regional tensions continue to ease.

At the same time, the US Dollar Index slipped around 0.3%, making gold more affordable for holders of other currencies and increasing international demand for the metal.

Falling US Treasury yields, including the benchmark 10-year yield, also strengthened gold’s appeal since the precious metal does not provide interest returns.

Independent metals trader Tai Wong stated that weaker Treasury yields and a softer dollar helped gold remain above a key technical level, namely its 200-day moving average.

According to Wong, the possibility of gold reaching another record high this year will largely depend on future geopolitical developments in the Middle East.

“New record highs for gold could become more difficult if a permanent ceasefire with Iran is achieved, allowing the Strait of Hormuz to fully reopen, energy prices to decline, and market concerns over interest rates to ease,” Wong said.

Despite the latest rebound, gold prices remain significantly below the all-time high of US$5,594.82 per ounce recorded on January 29, 2026.

Since tensions involving Iran escalated in late February, gold prices have corrected by approximately 16%.

Investors are now awaiting the release of the US May employment data scheduled for Friday, as the report is expected to provide fresh clues regarding labor market conditions and the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate policy direction.

Meanwhile, other precious metals also posted gains. Spot silver surged 3.1% to US$74.96 per ounce, platinum rose 1.9% to US$1,895.29 per ounce, and palladium increased 1.6% to US$1,322.01 per ounce.

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Gold Near Lows

 

Gold Prices Hover Near Weekly Lows Amid Geopolitical Risks and Hawkish Fed Rate Expectations

Gold prices remained under selling pressure during the Asian trading session, with XAU/USD trading near the $4,465 level and staying close to its weekly low. Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer continue to weigh on the non-yielding precious metal.

Crude oil prices extended gains for a third consecutive session amid escalating hostilities in the Middle East, reigniting inflation concerns across global markets. The renewed inflation fears have strengthened speculation that major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, could maintain a hawkish monetary policy stance for an extended period.

From a technical perspective, XAU/USD continues to trade within a bearish descending channel and below the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains near 46, signaling slightly negative momentum without entering oversold territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has slipped back below the zero line, highlighting fading recovery momentum within the broader downtrend structure.

The current technical setup suggests that any recovery attempt may face immediate resistance near the 200-period EMA around $4,598.83. Additional resistance is seen near the upper boundary of the descending channel at approximately $4,634.83. A decisive breakout above these levels would be needed to ease the current bearish sentiment.

On the downside, the lower boundary of the descending channel near $4,322.55 serves as the next major support level. A clear break below this zone could strengthen the ongoing bearish trend and trigger deeper losses for gold prices.

Geopolitical uncertainty has also helped the US Dollar maintain weekly gains, further pressuring gold prices. In the latest Middle East developments, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed conducting a “self-defense” strike on Iran’s Qeshm Island. In response, Iran reportedly launched missiles and drones targeting US military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain, although most attacks were intercepted by US and Gulf air defense systems.

At the same time, tensions between Israel and Hezbollah have intensified, while diplomatic negotiations between the US and Iran remain stalled over Tehran’s nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz. The lack of progress in negotiations has increased fears of further escalation in the region and kept geopolitical risks elevated.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that Washington would not lift sanctions on Iran in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, emphasizing that sanctions relief depends on Iran surrendering its enriched uranium. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire alongside the continuation of the US blockade until negotiations are resolved.

These developments have supported crude oil prices, pushing them further away from last week’s one-month lows and intensifying inflation concerns. Investors now expect central banks to maintain tighter monetary policies, adding pressure on gold markets.

Adding to the hawkish outlook, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack reiterated that the Federal Reserve remains strongly committed to bringing inflation back to its 2% target and may need to act quickly if inflation pressures persist. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in more than a 50% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike during the December policy meeting.

Higher US Treasury yields and a stronger US Dollar continue to reduce the appeal of gold, contributing to the weaker sentiment surrounding the precious metal market.

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Gold Rebounds Higher

 

Gold Reclaims $4,500 as Israel–Hezbollah Ceasefire Weighs on US Dollar

Gold prices edged higher during the Asian trading session, although bullish momentum remained limited, with XAU/USD trading slightly above the key psychological level of $4,500. A partial ceasefire agreement between Hezbollah and Israel eased fears of a broader regional conflict, limiting further gains in the safe-haven US Dollar and offering support to bullion prices. However, uncertainty surrounding US-Iran peace negotiations, combined with persistent inflation concerns and expectations of higher interest rates, continued to weigh on demand for the precious metal.

Gold Technical Analysis: Bearish Bias Remains Intact

From a technical perspective, gold continues to trade within a descending parallel channel and remains below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, keeping the bearish outlook intact. This structure suggests sellers are still in control despite moderate stabilization in momentum indicators.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near the neutral 49 level, signaling balanced market conditions. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slipped slightly into negative territory, indicating weakening bullish momentum.

On the upside, immediate resistance is seen around $4,615.35, followed by the 200-period SMA near $4,619.67 and the upper boundary of the descending channel at approximately $4,655.17. A sustained breakout above these levels would be required to ease current downside pressure.

On the downside, key support is located near the lower boundary of the bearish channel around $4,320.15. A decisive break below this level could reinforce the broader bearish trend and expose gold prices to deeper losses.

Israel–Hezbollah Ceasefire Limits USD Strength

US President Donald Trump announced on social media Monday that Israel had agreed to withdraw forces preparing to attack Beirut and Hezbollah-controlled suburbs. Trump also reportedly communicated with the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group through intermediaries and secured assurances that Hezbollah would refrain from launching attacks against Israel.

The limited de-escalation in geopolitical tensions failed to provide additional support for the US Dollar after its previous rally. However, mixed signals surrounding ongoing US-Iran negotiations to end the three-month-long conflict continued to influence market sentiment and the direction of the greenback.

Iran warned that it could suspend negotiations with the United States following renewed Israeli military operations in Lebanon. Nevertheless, Trump insisted that peace talks with Iran were still ongoing, adding that a deal to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached within the coming week.

Despite these developments, investors remain cautious and are waiting for clearer progress in US-Iran negotiations before taking stronger market positions.

Focus Turns to US Economic Data and Nonfarm Payrolls

Market participants are now closely watching upcoming US economic data, including the JOLTS Job Openings report, for fresh trading direction during the North American session. However, investor focus will remain firmly on Friday’s highly anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could significantly influence US Dollar demand and gold price volatility.

At the same time, further developments in the Middle East crisis are expected to increase volatility across global financial markets and create new trading opportunities for gold prices. Overall, the current fundamental backdrop still appears to favor bearish sentiment for XAU/USD.

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Gold Outlook Bullish

 

Gold Prices Expected to Stay Bullish as Market Outlook Remains Strong Through Year-End

Gold prices are projected to remain at elevated levels through the third quarter of 2026 despite easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Analysts believe the weakening rupiah and expectations of global monetary policy easing will continue supporting precious metal prices in the coming months.

According to Trading Economics data on Monday (June 1, 2026) at 08:10 WIB, spot gold prices stood at US$4,527 per troy ounce. Although prices fell 0.62% over the past week, gold still recorded a 0.40% monthly gain.

Meanwhile, silver prices were recorded at US$74.90 per troy ounce, down 3.26% weekly. However, silver still posted a monthly increase of 3.87%.

Commodity analyst and Traderindo founder Wahyu Laksono stated that the rise in gold prices throughout this year has been driven by a combination of geopolitical sentiment, global central bank interest rate policies, US dollar movements, and strong investment demand.

According to Wahyu, the market was previously overshadowed by a spike in oil prices due to disruptions in energy distribution routes in the Middle East. However, hopes for a potential agreement between the United States and Iran have started to reduce market concerns over global oil supply risks.

“The easing geopolitical tensions have pushed oil prices lower again. However, gold continues to gain support from expectations of monetary easing and strong demand as a safe-haven asset,” Wahyu told Kontan on Friday (May 29, 2026).

He explained that signals of interest rate cuts from major global central banks, especially the Federal Reserve (The Fed), have become one of the main factors supporting gold prices. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, increasing investor demand.

In addition, the weakening US Dollar Index (DXY) and declining US Treasury yields have also provided room for precious metals to strengthen further.

On the other hand, continued gold purchases by central banks across various countries remain another important factor supporting prices. The trend of diversifying foreign exchange reserves is expected to keep global gold demand strong.

Wahyu estimates global gold prices could continue trading within the range of US$4,000 to US$5,000 per troy ounce during the third quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, support levels are projected to remain around US$4,350 to US$4,400 per troy ounce if corrections occur.

Silver prices, meanwhile, are expected to move more volatilely within the range of US$60 to US$108 per troy ounce. According to Wahyu, silver could potentially record more aggressive gains than gold if industrial demand, especially from the green energy and manufacturing sectors, rebounds.

For the Indonesian domestic market, Wahyu believes Antam gold prices still have room to rise, although not as dramatically as the surge seen in 2025.

He noted that the weakening rupiah exchange rate remains the primary factor keeping domestic gold prices elevated. Since local gold prices are based on global gold prices converted into rupiah using the US dollar exchange rate, currency depreciation continues supporting higher prices.

“This condition keeps Antam gold prices potentially staying at high levels even if global gold prices experience corrections,” Wahyu said.

By the end of the year, Wahyu forecasts Antam gold prices to move within the range of Rp2,650,000 to Rp3,000,000 per gram. The projection assumes global gold prices remain between US$4,000 and US$5,000 per troy ounce, while the rupiah exchange rate fluctuates between Rp17,000 and Rp18,000 per US dollar.

He added that if the rupiah weakens beyond Rp18,000 per US dollar, Antam gold prices could potentially surpass Rp3,000,000 per gram.

In the medium term, Wahyu projects Antam gold prices could climb further toward Rp3,500,000 to Rp4,000,000 per gram as the bullish outlook for global gold prices remains intact.

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Pani Gold Expansion

Merdeka Gold Begins Deep Drilling at Pani Mine, Gold Potential Reaches 7 Million Ounces

A subsidiary of PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk (MDKA), PT Merdeka Gold Resources Tbk (EMAS), has officially commenced a 3,600-meter diamond deep drilling program at the Pani Gold Mine as the company targets a significant increase in mineral resources estimated at around 7 million ounces of gold.

President Director of Merdeka Gold Resources, Boyke Abidin, stated that the Pani Gold Mine located in Gorontalo currently holds an estimated mineral resource of 291.5 million tons with an average gold grade of 0.75 g/t. The massive resource potential, equivalent to approximately 7 million ounces of gold, is expected to support the long-term development of the mining project.

Boyke explained that the current mineral resource estimate is derived from an exploration area covering 135 hectares out of the company’s total concession area of 14,670 hectares. Previous exploration activities have shown strong indications of mineralization extending beyond the boundaries of the earlier drilling programs.

Therefore, the 3,600-meter diamond drilling campaign has been specifically designed to evaluate the potential expansion of the existing resource base. Through this latest drilling initiative, the Pani project aims to test the continuity of gold mineralization at much deeper zones in the future.

“With production activities beginning at Pani, the company is now in a stronger strategic position to continue testing deeper mineralization potential through six carefully designed drill holes,” Boyke stated in an official statement received by Kontan.co.id on Friday (May 29, 2026).

The initial phase of the drilling program includes six drill holes, with one drilling rig already operating on-site. Meanwhile, a second rig is scheduled to begin full operations next month to accelerate the drilling process.

If the initial results show positive potential, the company is prepared to expand the drilling program on a much larger scale.

“This program also offers flexibility for further expansion if drilling results indicate positive potential,” he added.

In addition, Boyke noted positive progress in the exploration program at the Kolokoa working area. The project has completed its initial drilling campaign consisting of 54 drill holes totaling 11,701.6 meters, with an investment value of USD 2.4 million.

Based on these results, the company is currently preparing the maiden mineral resource estimate for Kolokoa, which is targeted for release in the second quarter of 2026 to provide greater market certainty.

Furthermore, the mining issuer also plans to expand its exploration network to the Lone Pine area in the second half of 2026. EMAS is set to conduct geophysical surveys using Mobile Magnetotelluric and helicopter-based airborne magnetic surveys in June or July.

All data from the latest drilling activities will be publicly disclosed following compliance with JORC Code 2012 and KCMI 2017 reporting standards.

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Gold Under Pressure

 

Gold Remains Under Pressure as Iran Risks and Hawkish Fed Bets Support US Dollar

Gold prices struggled to extend modest gains during the Asian session on Wednesday, remaining vulnerable near the key psychological level of $4,500 as persistent geopolitical uncertainty continued to strengthen the US Dollar. In addition, growing inflation concerns have reinforced expectations of a more hawkish stance from major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, further weakening demand for the non-yielding precious metal.

From a technical perspective, gold maintains a mildly bearish short-term outlook following this week’s rejection near the critical horizontal resistance around $4,580. That region also aligns with the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart and is expected to serve as a major pivot zone. A sustained breakout above this barrier would be needed to ease the current bearish structure and pave the way for a stronger recovery.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the neutral level near 41, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to trade in negative territory. These momentum indicators suggest ongoing downside pressure despite the absence of fresh extreme bearish momentum. However, a decisive break below the monthly swing low near the $4,450 area could trigger a deeper corrective decline for gold prices.

US forces launched what was described as a self-defense strike in southern Iran on Monday, targeting Iranian missile sites and vessels allegedly attempting to deploy naval mines. Iran’s Foreign Ministry condemned the attacks as a violation of the ceasefire agreement that has been in place since early April.

In addition, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) stated that Iran retains the legitimate right to retaliate against any ceasefire violations by the United States. Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei also warned that regional countries would no longer serve as safe zones for US military bases. These developments continue to sustain geopolitical risk premiums and support the US Dollar’s safe-haven status, placing additional pressure on gold prices.

At the same time, escalating US-Iran tensions, combined with the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the US blockade of Iranian ports, could continue supporting crude oil prices and fueling inflation concerns globally. This environment has encouraged major central banks to maintain a hawkish outlook, with the Reserve Bank of Australia already raising interest rates in May, while the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and Reserve Bank of New Zealand are all expected to deliver rate hikes later this year.

Market participants are also pricing in roughly a 50% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December. This outlook provides additional support for the Greenback and limits upside momentum for non-yielding assets such as gold.

Looking ahead, no major US economic data releases are scheduled for Wednesday, leaving the US Dollar sensitive to comments from influential Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members and fresh developments surrounding the Middle East crisis. However, traders are likely to remain cautious ahead of Thursday’s release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the second estimate of US Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Given the current fundamental backdrop, market conditions continue to favor bearish sentiment toward XAU/USD, suggesting caution before anticipating any significant intraday rebound in gold prices.

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Gold Prices Decline

Gold Prices Slip as Fresh US-Iran Strikes Dampen Peace Deal Hopes

Gold prices moved lower during Asian trading on Tuesday after the latest military strikes by the United States against Iran weakened market optimism over a potential peace agreement between the two nations.

The US dollar remained steady, while oil prices rebounded following reports of renewed US military action against Iran. The stronger dollar and rising crude oil prices pressured gold, limiting the precious metal’s recent bullish momentum.

Spot gold declined 0.8% to $4,535.17 per ounce as of 08:37 WIB, while gold futures dropped 0.8% to $4,568.67 per ounce.

Other precious metals also traded lower. Spot silver fell 2.1% to $76.4495 per ounce, while spot platinum slipped 0.6% to $1,955.02 per ounce.

Gold and other safe-haven assets had posted solid gains in recent sessions after reports suggested that the United States and Iran were close to reaching a framework agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

However, reports released late Monday indicated that the US had launched fresh military strikes against Iran, reducing hopes for a near-term diplomatic breakthrough between the two countries.

According to US media reports, the military targeted missile launch facilities and mine-laying vessels located in southern Iran.

The escalating geopolitical tensions helped the US dollar stabilize after recent losses and pushed oil prices higher following a week of declines.

Rising oil prices have increased concerns about inflationary pressures stemming from the Iran conflict. Investors remain worried that energy-driven inflation could force major global central banks to maintain a more hawkish monetary policy stance, which has continued to weigh on gold prices throughout the year.

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Gold Prices Steady

Gold Prices Trim Gains but Demand Remains Strong Above $4,550 Amid Weakening US Dollar

Gold prices pared part of their intraday gains during Monday’s trading session, although demand for the precious metal remained solid above the US$4,550 level as the US Dollar continued to weaken amid mixed market sentiment.

The XAU/USD pair struggled to extend its modest Asian session rally toward the US$4,580 region and remained capped below the upper boundary of last week’s trading range. Market sentiment was influenced by weekend developments suggesting progress toward a potential peace agreement between the United States and Iran, which pressured the US Dollar and supported gold prices.

However, investors remain cautious as Washington and Tehran continue to disagree on several key issues, limiting broader bullish momentum in the gold market.

From a technical perspective, gold prices continue to trade within a descending parallel channel. The upper boundary of the channel aligns closely with the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart, creating a strong resistance zone near US$4,650. This indicates that the recent rebound may still be vulnerable despite improving momentum indicators.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains above the zero line, while the histogram continues to print positive values. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays in the mid-50 range, signaling a temporary recovery rather than a confirmed bullish trend reversal.

On the downside, the lower boundary of the parallel channel near US$4,360 serves as the next major support level. A breakdown below this floor could reinforce the broader bearish structure and open the door for deeper corrections in the medium-term downtrend.

Fed Hawkish Outlook Limits Gold Rally

Expectations that the US Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish monetary policy stance helped limit further weakness in the US Dollar and capped additional upside for non-yielding gold assets.

According to Axios, citing a US official on Saturday night, the United States and Iran are reportedly close to signing an agreement involving a 60-day ceasefire extension that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, US President Donald Trump stated that most aspects of a peace framework with Iran had already been negotiated.

The development boosted investor confidence, while declining crude oil prices eased inflation concerns and triggered a sharp drop in US Treasury yields amid thin market liquidity due to several global holidays. These factors significantly pressured the Greenback and provided support for gold prices.

Despite this, Trump reportedly instructed negotiators not to rush the agreement process and emphasized that naval restrictions on Iranian ports would remain in place until a formally certified deal is signed.

In addition, ongoing disputes regarding Iran’s nuclear program continue to limit optimism. Market speculation that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates again in 2026 may also strengthen the US Dollar moving forward.

As a result, traders may prefer to wait for stronger buying momentum before confirming that gold has established a short-term bottom near the US$4,450 region — its lowest level since late March reached last week.

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Gold Prices Weaken

Gold Prices Slip Amid Iran Uncertainty and Weak Weekly Outlook

Gold prices edged lower during early Asian trading on Friday and were on track for a weak weekly close as investors remained cautious over the ongoing Iran conflict and its potential impact on interest rates.

Spot gold fell 0.2% to $4,532.95 per ounce at 07:18 GMT, while gold futures also declined 0.2% to $4,533.90 per ounce.

Despite sharp market fluctuations throughout the week, spot gold was set to post a weekly decline of around 0.2%. Investor sentiment continued to shift amid mixed signals from the United States and Iran regarding ongoing negotiations. Optimism briefly improved after U.S. President Donald Trump delayed a potential military strike on Iran, while reports suggested that a final draft peace agreement had been reached.

However, Trump warned that military action could still happen if Tehran refused to accept the proposed agreement, with Iran’s nuclear program remaining the key point of contention.

U.S. officials also criticized Tehran’s plan to impose transit fees through the Strait of Hormuz. Limited oil flows through the crucial shipping route continued to keep crude oil prices elevated.

The conflict showed little sign of ending anytime soon, leaving markets concerned about prolonged disruptions to global oil supplies and the broader impact on inflation.

U.S. inflation has surged over the past two months due to rising energy prices, fueling speculation that the Federal Reserve may be forced to raise interest rates later this year.

Minutes from the Fed’s late-April meeting revealed growing support among policymakers for additional rate hikes, a scenario generally viewed as negative for gold and other non-yielding assets.

Other precious metals also moved lower on Friday and appeared headed for weak weekly performances. Spot platinum slipped 0.2% to $1,967.98 per ounce, while spot silver declined 0.2% to $76.5145 per ounce.

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Gold Prices Rebound

 

Gold Prices Rebound After Trump Says Iran Negotiations Near Final Stage

Global gold prices rebounded during Thursday’s trading session after previously touching their lowest level in the past two months. The recovery was driven by easing concerns over Middle East tensions and softer global inflation pressures.

Spot gold prices climbed 1.39% to US$4,543.55 per troy ounce after falling to around US$4,490 per troy ounce in the previous session.

Market sentiment improved after U.S. President Donald Trump stated that negotiations with Iran had entered the final stage. However, Trump also warned of potential additional military action if Iran refuses to agree to the proposed peace deal.

According to Alwi Assegaf, Research & Development analyst at Trijaya Pratama Futures, the rebound in gold prices was also supported by declining U.S. Treasury yields.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to 4.576% from the previous 4.669%.

“The decline in Treasury yields has provided room for gold to rebound after facing significant pressure over the past several trading sessions,” Alwi said in his Thursday research note.

Alwi added that investors have started to reduce concerns over rising inflation as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East show signs of easing.

In addition to developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations, shipping data indicated that several Chinese supertankers and oil tankers had begun exiting the Strait of Hormuz. This development triggered a decline in global crude oil prices and eased fears of disruptions to the world’s energy supply.

Despite improving market sentiment, the minutes from the April 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting revealed that most Federal Reserve officials are still open to further interest rate hikes this year.

The meeting minutes showed that many policymakers believe tighter monetary policy may still be necessary if inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target. Several members even proposed removing previous statements that hinted at a dovish policy stance.

Meanwhile, Tiffani Safinia, Research & Development analyst at ICDX, said investors are now closely watching upcoming U.S. economic data, including manufacturing PMI figures and weekly jobless claims, to assess the resilience of the U.S. economy amid ongoing inflation pressures.

“The movement of the U.S. dollar and energy prices is expected to remain the primary factor influencing gold price direction in the short term,” Tiffani explained.

Tiffani also noted that medium- to long-term investors may continue applying a gradual accumulation strategy, as gold remains a preferred hedge against inflation and global uncertainty.

From a technical perspective, Alwi stated that gold price movements on the H4 timeframe remain under bearish pressure, although short-term rebound signals have started to emerge after prices managed to hold above the 4,453 support level.

Gold prices are still trading below the descending trendline and moving average area, indicating that the bearish trend continues to dominate the market. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has started to move higher from oversold territory, signaling that bearish momentum is gradually weakening.

If prices manage to break through the resistance zone between 4,589 and 4,637, the opportunity for further gains toward the 4,773 area could widen. On the other hand, if gold fails to break resistance and falls back below 4,511, selling pressure may intensify toward support levels at 4,453 and 4,404.

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Gold Futures Slip

 

Gold Futures Edge Lower During Asian Trading Session

Gold futures traded lower during Wednesday’s Asian session, extending recent losses as investors monitored the strength of the US Dollar and broader market sentiment.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for June delivery were trading at $4,473.55 per troy ounce at the time of writing, down 0.26% on the day.

The precious metal earlier touched an intraday low during the session, with analysts closely watching key technical levels. Gold is expected to find immediate support near $4,455.51, while resistance is seen around $4,725.80.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index Futures, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, gained 0.03% to trade at $99.29, adding pressure to gold prices.

Elsewhere on Comex, silver futures for July delivery rose 0.40% to $74.28 per troy ounce, while copper futures for July delivery slipped 0.16% to $6.18 per pound.

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Gold Futures Decline

Gold Futures Edge Lower During Asian Trading Session

Gold futures traded lower during Tuesday’s Asian session as investors remained cautious amid a slightly stronger US Dollar and shifting market sentiment.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for June delivery were trading at $4,538.07 per troy ounce at the time of writing, down 0.44% on the day.

Earlier in the session, the precious metal touched an intraday low before attempting a modest recovery. Gold prices are expected to find immediate support near $4,483.97, while key resistance is seen around $4,725.80.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index Futures, which tracks the performance of the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, gained 0.03% to trade at 99.08. A firmer US Dollar typically weighs on gold prices by making the metal more expensive for holders of other currencies.

In other metals trading on Comex, silver futures for July delivery declined 1.54% to $76.25 per troy ounce. Copper futures for July delivery also moved lower, falling 1.31% to $6.25 per pound.

The broader weakness across precious and industrial metals reflects cautious investor sentiment as traders continue monitoring global economic conditions, inflation expectations, and future interest rate signals from the Federal Reserve.

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Gold Recovery Limited

 

Gold Prices Rebound From Multi-Month Lows, but Strong USD and Hawkish Fed Bets Cap Gains

Gold prices staged a modest recovery from the $4,480 region during Monday’s trading session after touching their lowest level since March 30 in Asian markets. However, upside momentum remains limited as a stronger U.S. dollar and growing expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening continue to pressure the precious metal.

Persistent demand for the U.S. dollar has been fueled by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. At the same time, rising crude oil prices have intensified inflation concerns, reinforcing speculation that the Federal Reserve could maintain a more hawkish monetary policy stance. This environment continues to support the greenback while limiting gains for non-yielding assets such as gold.

From a technical perspective, last week’s failure near the key 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) resistance suggests that bearish momentum is strengthening. A sustained move below the psychological $4,500 level could confirm a broader downward trend in gold prices.

Technical indicators also point to weak buying interest. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains near 40, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator continues to show negative readings, validating the short-term bearish outlook for gold.

Market attention is now focused on the broader support zone near the 200-day SMA at $4,352.59. A decisive break below this area could expose gold to deeper corrective losses in the coming sessions. On the upside, the 100-day SMA at $4,790.55 remains the first major resistance level that buyers need to reclaim to ease current downside pressure.

Middle East Tensions Boost Safe-Haven Demand for USD

Geopolitical risks intensified after a drone strike reportedly caused a fire at the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant in the United Arab Emirates. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia announced it had intercepted three drones launched from Iraq and warned that it would take necessary operational measures to defend its sovereignty and security.

Adding to market concerns, U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran to move quickly toward a peace agreement or face severe consequences. In a post on Truth Social, Trump stated that “time is running out” and emphasized that immediate action was necessary.

These developments have increased fears of a broader escalation in the Middle East while weakening hopes for a breakthrough in U.S.-Iran peace negotiations. As a result, investors continue to favor the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset.

Additionally, U.S. restrictions on Iranian ports and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have pushed crude oil prices to their highest levels in two weeks. The surge in oil prices has strengthened expectations that inflationary pressures could force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated into 2026.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in more than a 50% probability that the Fed could raise borrowing costs again before year-end. This outlook continues to support higher U.S. Treasury yields, benefiting USD bulls and limiting gold’s recovery potential.

Gold Outlook Remains Bearish Ahead of FOMC Minutes

The broader fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for XAU/USD remains to the downside. Any additional rebound in gold prices may attract fresh selling pressure, especially in the absence of major U.S. economic data releases on Monday.

Market participants are now turning their attention to Wednesday’s FOMC meeting minutes, which could provide fresh clues regarding the Federal Reserve’s future policy direction. Traders will also closely monitor the release of preliminary global PMI data later this week.

Meanwhile, ongoing geopolitical headlines are expected to keep financial markets volatile, potentially driving further demand for the U.S. dollar and influencing gold price movements.

In physical gold markets, discounts in India surged to record highs last week, while strong investment demand in China kept premiums elevated above global benchmark prices. However, these supportive demand factors may have limited impact as escalating Iran tensions, rising inflation concerns, and hawkish Fed expectations continue to strengthen the U.S. dollar and weigh on gold prices.

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Gold Prices Slide

 

Gold Price Extends Weekly Pullback as Stronger US Dollar Weighs on XAU/USD

Gold prices are expected to extend their weekly pullback from monthly highs, falling for a fourth consecutive session on Friday amid sustained buying interest in the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to its highest level since April 8, supported by a combination of geopolitical tensions and stronger US economic data.

Ongoing uncertainty surrounding stalled US-Iran peace negotiations, particularly disagreements over Tehran’s nuclear program and the strategic Strait of Hormuz, continues to keep geopolitical risks elevated. This backdrop has strengthened demand for the safe-haven US Dollar while pressuring non-yielding assets such as gold.

Technical Analysis: Gold Faces Bearish Momentum Below Key Support

From a technical perspective, repeated failures near the $4,765-$4,770 resistance zone have formed a bearish double-top pattern. A decisive break below the $4,670 confluence area — which includes the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from around $4,500 — confirmed the downside outlook.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains deeply in negative territory at -5.58, reinforcing bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 26.5, signaling oversold conditions that may slow the decline but are not yet strong enough to reverse the broader bearish trend.

On the downside, immediate support is located at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $4,605.89, followed by secondary support at the 78.6% retracement level near $4,560.62 and the previous swing low around $4,502.95.

On the upside, initial resistance is seen at the 50% retracement level of $4,637.69. Additional resistance appears within the broader consolidation zone between the 38.2% retracement at $4,669.49 and the 200-hour SMA at $4,673.40. Further recovery attempts may face stronger barriers near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement around $4,708.83.

Fundamental Outlook: Hawkish Fed Expectations Boost USD

Rising expectations for another interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve continue to support the US Dollar and weaken demand for gold bullion.

US President Donald Trump stated in an interview aired Thursday on Fox News that he would not remain patient with Iran and urged Tehran to reach an agreement. Meanwhile, reports of a commercial vessel being seized by Iranian personnel near the coast of the United Arab Emirates raised concerns over energy supply flows through the critical Strait of Hormuz, supporting elevated crude oil prices.

Additionally, hotter-than-expected US inflation data and stronger US Retail Sales figures released this week reinforced expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance. US headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation accelerated to 3.8% YoY in April, while core CPI rose to 2.8%. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) also surged 1.4% last month, pushing the annual rate to 6.0%.

Furthermore, US Retail Sales increased for the third straight month in April, highlighting resilient consumer spending despite mounting inflationary pressures. According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in nearly a 40% probability of another Fed rate hike before year-end. This outlook continues to strengthen the US Dollar and adds pressure to gold prices.

US-China Talks and Middle East Tensions Could Drive Market Volatility

Market sentiment toward US-China relations has improved slightly following high-level talks between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. However, Xi warned that mishandling the Taiwan issue could trigger “confrontation or even conflict” between the two global powers.

Trump and Xi are scheduled to continue their discussions for a second day in Beijing, and further headlines could generate additional volatility across global financial markets. At the same time, investors remain focused on developments in the Middle East crisis for short-term trading opportunities.

Despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, the broader fundamental backdrop continues to favor sellers, leaving the XAU/USD pair on track to post weekly losses.

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Gold Expansion Catalyst

PTRO Gold Mining Expansion Becomes New Growth Catalyst, Here’s the Recommendation

The performance outlook of PT Petrosea Tbk (PTRO) is projected to remain promising throughout 2026 as the company accelerates its business expansion into the gold mining sector in Papua New Guinea.

This strategic move marks PTRO’s commodity diversification beyond its long-established strength in coal mining services. Earlier, the company completed a binding offer transaction with Tolu Minerals Limited on April 20, 2026.

Through the deal, Petrosea secured a convertible note worth AU$23.75 million, opening opportunities for operational collaboration in the gold mining industry.

Kiwoom Sekuritas Senior Equity Research Analyst Sukarno Alatas stated that the expansion into gold mining represents a positive strategy to broaden the company’s revenue streams while reducing dependence on the coal business.

“This diversification is considered favorable because gold offers attractive long-term prospects amid elevated global commodity prices,” Sukarno said on Wednesday (May 13, 2026).

Based on the company’s financial report, PTRO posted revenue of US$284.13 million in the first quarter of 2026, surging 84.24% year-on-year (YoY) compared to US$154.22 million recorded in the same period last year.

Meanwhile, the company booked net profit attributable to parent entity owners of US$1.39 million, up 50.54% YoY from US$920,000 previously.

According to Sukarno, PTRO’s performance this year still has strong growth potential, supported by a solid contract backlog, contributions from new projects, and the gradual expansion of its non-coal businesses.

Beyond the gold mining expansion, the analyst sees continued growth in mining services activity and the possibility of securing additional contracts as key catalysts for PTRO throughout 2026.

In addition, contributions from engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) projects, along with infrastructure developments, are expected to support the company’s revenue growth this year.

“From a macro perspective, relatively stable coal prices, strong gold price trends, and increasing spending in the national energy and downstream sectors remain positive sentiments for the company,” he explained.

However, Sukarno reminded investors to remain cautious of several risks, including commodity price volatility, rising operational costs, and potential global economic slowdowns that could affect the mining sector’s performance.

Fundamentally, PTRO shares are still viewed as attractive, backed by business expansion initiatives and strong revenue visibility.

Therefore, Kiwoom Sekuritas maintains a buy recommendation for PTRO shares with a target price of Rp8,325 per share.

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Petrosea Gold Expansion

Petrosea’s Strong Backlog and Gold Diversification Support PTRO’s 2026 Outlook

The business outlook for PT Petrosea Tbk (PTRO) in 2026 remains attractive as the company expands into the gold mining sector in Papua New Guinea through its investment in Tolu Minerals Limited.

PTRO completed its binding offer process with Tolu Minerals Limited on April 20, 2026. Through the transaction, Petrosea secured a convertible note worth AUD 23.75 million, creating opportunities for future operational cooperation in the gold mining industry.

KISI Sekuritas Head of Research, Muhammad Wafi, stated that the expansion could strengthen PTRO’s business diversification strategy, as the company has long been recognized as a major player in coal mining services.

“The 2026 outlook is quite promising. Profitability could improve significantly once new projects begin contributing,” Wafi told Kontan on Tuesday (May 12, 2026).

However, he noted that PTRO’s investment in Tolu Minerals is unlikely to contribute directly to revenue in the short term. The investment is still structured as a financial instrument that may later be converted into equity ownership or mining service contracts.

According to Wafi, PTRO’s main performance catalyst continues to come from its solid long-term contract backlog, which provides strong revenue visibility for the company over the next several years.

In addition, elevated global gold prices amid rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran are also seen as a positive factor supporting PTRO’s gold diversification narrative.

“High global gold prices support PTRO’s gold diversification story, even though revenue from Tolu has not yet materialized in the near term,” he said.

Meanwhile, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas Fundamental Analyst Abida Massi Armand also highlighted several positive catalysts expected to support PTRO’s performance.

First, the company is expected to monetize its backlog from long-term contracts with Freeport Indonesia and Bara Prima Mandiri.

Second, PTRO is accelerating its engineering, procurement, construction, and installation (EPCI) segment through the integration of Hafar and Scan-Bilt, reflected in a US$9.5 million contract win from Petronas.

The company is also expanding internationally into Pakistan through an engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) project with Reko Diq Mining Company.

Despite the positive outlook, PTRO still faces several risks that investors should monitor. Regulatory changes in Indonesia’s mining sector remain a major concern, particularly regarding potential reductions in RKAB approvals and higher taxes that could weaken interest in new mining projects.

Wafi also warned about additional risks, including high interest expenses and operational challenges in new regions such as Papua New Guinea.

For investment recommendations, Wafi maintained a “buy” rating on PTRO shares with a target price of Rp 8,000 per share.

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Antam Gold Surges

Antam Gold Prices Today Jump Rp40,000 to Rp2.859 Million Per Gram

Certified Antam gold bullion produced by PT Aneka Tambang Tbk recorded a sharp increase on Tuesday, May 12, 2026.

According to the official Logam Mulia website, the price of 1 gram of Antam gold rose to Rp2,859,000 per gram. The latest price surged Rp40,000 compared to Monday, May 11, 2026, when gold was traded at Rp2,819,000 per gram.

Meanwhile, the Antam gold buyback price also climbed significantly to Rp2,676,000 per gram. This marked an increase of Rp50,000 from the previous buyback price of Rp2,626,000 per gram recorded on Monday.

The rally in Antam gold prices reflects stronger demand for precious metals amid ongoing global market uncertainty and fluctuating economic conditions.

Latest Antam Gold Prices Today – Tuesday, May 12, 2026

(Prices exclude taxes)

• 0.5 gram gold: Rp1,479,500

• 1 gram gold: Rp2,859,000

• 5 gram gold: Rp14,110,000

• 10 gram gold: Rp28,140,000

• 25 gram gold: Rp70,185,000

• 50 gram gold: Rp140,205,000

• 100 gram gold: Rp280,260,000

• 250 gram gold: Rp700,340,000

• 500 gram gold: Rp1,400,400,000

• 1,000 gram gold: Rp2,799,600,000

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Gold Below Pressure

Gold Slips Below $4,700 as Market Sentiment Weakens

Gold prices (XAU/USD) traded under pressure on Monday, fluctuating below the $4,700 level as the US Dollar regained strength. Persistent geopolitical uncertainty continued to reinforce the Greenback’s safe-haven appeal, while growing expectations of a more hawkish stance from the US Federal Reserve further weighed on the precious metal.

From a technical perspective, gold maintains a neutral tone after repeatedly failing last week to break above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-May decline. However, downside movement remained limited near the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). In addition, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stayed slightly above the 50 mark, signaling a modest bullish bias, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remained below zero with negative readings, suggesting that bullish momentum is still not fully convincing.

Meanwhile, the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement around $4,696 is expected to act as immediate resistance, followed by stronger barriers near the 61.8% retracement at $4,743 and the 78.6% level around $4,810. A sustained breakout above these levels could pave the way toward the recent cycle high near $4,894. On the downside, the 200-period SMA at $4,675 provides initial support ahead of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near $4,650, while deeper support levels are seen around $4,592 and the structural low near $4,498.

Optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran peace agreement and conflict de-escalation faded rapidly amid renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, both US President Donald Trump and Iran rejected each other’s peace proposals aimed at ending the conflict and gradually reopening the strategic waterway, largely due to major disagreements over Iran’s nuclear program.

According to reports from the Wall Street Journal, Iran refused US demands to dismantle its nuclear facilities and halt uranium enrichment activities for the next 20 years. President Trump quickly criticized Iran’s response, calling it “completely unacceptable.” These developments kept geopolitical risks elevated, supporting the US Dollar and increasing downside pressure on gold prices.

At the same time, rising crude oil prices revived inflation concerns, while stronger-than-expected US employment data released on Friday strengthened the case for a more hawkish Federal Reserve policy outlook. The latest US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed that the economy added 115,000 new jobs in April, surpassing market expectations, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3%.

Furthermore, CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicated that traders are currently pricing in more than a 20% probability that the Federal Reserve could implement at least one additional 25-basis-point interest rate hike before the end of the year. This outlook continued to support the US Dollar and reinforced bearish pressure on non-yielding assets such as gold.

However, traders remain cautious ahead of key US inflation data releases this week, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday. Investors will also closely monitor upcoming US Retail Sales data and speeches from influential Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members for further clues on monetary policy direction.

Despite the recent weakness, the absence of aggressive follow-through selling suggests caution before confirming that gold’s rebound from the psychological $4,500 level — its lowest point in more than a month reached last week — has completely lost momentum.

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