Gold Near 4800

Gold Eyes $4,800 as Weaker US Dollar Boosts Bullion Demand

Gold prices extended their rebound on Tuesday, climbing toward the $4,800 level after recovering strongly from below $4,650 in the previous session. Despite stalled US-Iran peace talks over the weekend, investors remain cautiously optimistic that diplomatic negotiations will continue. At the same time, uncertainty surrounding future interest rate moves by the Federal Reserve is weighing on the US Dollar, providing additional support for gold.

Technical Analysis: Gold Faces Key Resistance Near $4,855

Following its recent recovery, a sustained move above the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the March decline could act as a key trigger for bullish momentum in XAU/USD. However, gold remains capped below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,854.58, keeping the broader market sentiment slightly bearish.

Momentum indicators show mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 57, indicating mild bullish bias, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is approaching the zero line—suggesting that bearish pressure is easing but not fully reversed.

On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at the 200-period SMA near $4,855, followed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $4,913. A breakout above this level could pave the way for a rally toward $5,133 and potentially the cycle high at $5,413.

On the downside, initial support lies at the 50% Fibonacci level around $4,759, with further support at $4,604 (38.2%) and $4,413. A break below these levels could expose a deeper decline toward $4,104.

Fundamental Outlook: Fed Uncertainty and Geopolitics Drive Gold

Market sentiment remains influenced by a mix of geopolitical tensions and monetary policy expectations. US Vice President JD Vance struck a cautiously optimistic tone regarding negotiations with Iran, noting progress despite the lack of a breakthrough. Hopes for a potential agreement have improved overall risk sentiment, weakening the US Dollar and supporting USD-denominated assets like gold.

Meanwhile, escalating conflict in the Middle East continues to raise concerns over energy-driven inflation. Recent data showed US consumer inflation surged to its highest level in nearly four years in March, largely due to rising energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions.

Despite this, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates a 30% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by December. Expectations of lower interest rates are typically bullish for non-yielding assets like gold, further pressuring the US Dollar.

Gold prices recently touched the $4,777 region, although gains remain limited amid ongoing instability in the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump announced the start of a naval blockade in the strategic waterway, warning of military action against Iranian vessels. In response, Iran threatened ports across the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, keeping geopolitical risks elevated.

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Gold Outlook Volatile

 

Gold Price Outlook Remains Volatile This Week: Spot and Antam Trends to Watch

Gold price prospects remain highly volatile this week, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and shifting global interest rate expectations.

According to Trading Economics on Monday (April 13) at 11:30 WIB, global gold prices are currently hovering around US$4,712 per troy ounce, marking a 5.9% decline over the past month.

Meanwhile, based on data from Logam Mulia, the price of Antam gold dropped to Rp 2,818,000 per gram, down Rp 42,000 on a daily basis.

Short-Term Gold Outlook: Correction Still Possible

Currency and commodity analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi stated that gold prices still have the potential to correct in the short term.

For this week, he forecasts global gold support at US$4,638 per troy ounce, with Antam gold potentially easing to around Rp 2,840,000 per gram, reflecting a correction of approximately Rp 20,000.

“If selling pressure continues, gold prices could fall deeper toward US$4,358 per troy ounce by the end of the week, while Antam gold may decline to Rp 2,780,000 per gram,” Ibrahim said on Sunday (April 12, 2026).

Upside Potential Remains Open

Despite downside risks, the upside potential for gold remains intact. Ibrahim projects resistance at US$4,897 per troy ounce, with Antam gold possibly rising to Rp 2,880,000 per gram.

In a more bullish scenario, global gold prices could surge past US$5,138 per troy ounce, potentially pushing Antam gold to as high as Rp 3,100,000 per gram.

Key Drivers: Geopolitics and Interest Rates

The wide trading range in gold prices is largely influenced by global factors, particularly geopolitical developments in the Middle East.

Ibrahim noted that potential negotiations between the United States and Iran, mediated by Pakistan, could open the door to a temporary ceasefire. If stability is achieved, oil prices may decline, easing inflation and increasing the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve—conditions that are favorable for gold.

On the other hand, if ceasefire efforts fail and tensions escalate, oil prices and the US dollar could strengthen, further boosting gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.

US-China Tensions and Fed Policy Support Gold

Rising tensions between the United States and China over military support to Iran are also supporting gold prices. This situation may pressure emerging market currencies, including the Indonesian rupiah, thereby lifting domestic gold prices such as Antam.

From a monetary policy perspective, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts remain a key bullish catalyst. A more accommodative stance from the US central bank is expected to support global gold prices.

Additionally, Donald Trump’s decision to appoint Kevin Warsh signals potential policy alignment between the US government and the central bank, particularly regarding interest rate cuts—further strengthening gold’s outlook.

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Gold Prices Fall

Gold Prices Slip Today (April 10) but Remain on Track for Third Weekly Gain

Gold prices edged lower ahead of the weekend as a stronger US dollar and ongoing uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran ceasefire weighed on the market. Despite the pullback, the precious metal is still on course to record its third consecutive weekly gain, supported by expectations of earlier and deeper US interest rate cuts, which typically boost non-yielding assets like gold.

As of Friday (April 10, 2026) at 11:00 WIB, spot gold dipped 0.1% to $4,759.54 per ounce. However, prices have still climbed 1.8% so far this week, reflecting continued bullish sentiment.

Meanwhile, US gold futures for June delivery declined 0.7% to $4,782.70 per ounce. The strengthening US dollar index made dollar-denominated gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, adding downward pressure.

Market analysts note that uncertainty remains a key factor. “There is still a lack of clarity around how the ceasefire in the Middle East will evolve and what it means for energy markets, leaving gold somewhat range-bound heading into the final session of the week,” said Kyle Rodda, Senior Financial Market Analyst at Capital.com.

Gold prices have fallen roughly 10% since the US-Israel conflict involving Iran escalated on February 28, as rising energy prices fueled inflation concerns and increased the likelihood of higher interest rates.

Tensions resurfaced on Friday as Washington accused Tehran of violating commitments in the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting the fragility of the two-week ceasefire agreement. However, Brent crude has dropped more than 11% this week, driven by optimism that the ceasefire could help reopen the vital shipping route, which handles around 20% of global oil and LNG flows.

According to Rodda, gold’s outlook remains highly dependent on geopolitical developments. “If tensions escalate, gold could quickly retreat to the mid-$4,000 range. But if the ceasefire holds and a peace agreement becomes more likely, prices could break above the $5,000 level.”

On the data front, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index— the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge— rose 2.8% year-on-year through February, in line with expectations, and is projected to increase further in March.

Investors are now closely watching the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, due later today, for clearer signals on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path.

Market expectations for a rate cut are also shifting. According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, there is now a 31% probability of at least a 25 basis point rate cut in December, up from 20% in the previous session.

Among other precious metals, spot silver rose 0.9% to $75.74 per ounce, while platinum fell 2% to $2,061.06, and palladium declined 1.2% to $1,539.43.

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Antam Gold Drops

 

Antam Gold Prices Today (April 9): Drop Rp50,000 to Rp2,850,000 per Gram

The price of certified Antam gold bars produced by PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) declined on Thursday (April 9, 2026).

According to the official Logam Mulia website, the price of 1 gram of Antam gold is now Rp2,850,000, marking a decrease of Rp50,000 compared to Wednesday (April 8, 2026), when it stood at Rp2,900,000 per gram.

Meanwhile, the buyback price of Antam gold dropped to Rp2,605,000 per gram, down Rp59,000 from the previous level of Rp2,664,000.

Latest Antam Gold Prices (April 9, 2026)

Prices exclude tax

• 0.5 gram: Rp1,475,000
• 1 gram: Rp2,850,000
• 5 grams: Rp14,065,000
• 10 grams: Rp28,050,000
• 25 grams: Rp69,960,000
• 50 grams: Rp139,755,000
• 100 grams: Rp279,360,000
• 250 grams: Rp698,090,000
• 500 grams: Rp1,395,900,000
• 1,000 grams: Rp2,790,600,000

This decline reflects ongoing fluctuations in the gold market, making it important for investors to monitor daily price movements closely.

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Gold Prices Surge

Gold Prices Surge on US-Iran Ceasefire Relief

Gold prices extended their rally on Wednesday morning (April 8) as markets reassessed short-term risks following a temporary de-escalation in tensions between the United States and Iran. The move came after Donald Trump agreed to pause military strikes against Iran for two weeks, easing fears of an immediate geopolitical escalation.

As of 06:30 WIB, spot gold rose 1.3% to $4,765.59 per ounce, building on a 1.2% gain in the previous session. Meanwhile, gold futures for June 2026 delivery climbed 2.3% to $4,793.20 per ounce, reflecting strong investor demand for safe-haven assets.

The bullish momentum was supported by Trump’s statement confirming the temporary halt in attacks, alongside the United States receiving a 10-point proposal from Iran—described as a viable basis for negotiations. The announcement followed earlier warnings from Washington, urging Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face potential retaliation.

Pakistan, acting as a mediator between Washington and Tehran, has requested a two-week extension to allow diplomatic efforts to progress. A senior Iranian official also indicated that Tehran is reviewing the proposal positively, signaling potential room for further de-escalation.

However, rising energy prices continue to fuel inflation concerns, complicating interest rate decisions by central banks. While gold is traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty, its appeal may weaken in a high-interest-rate environment due to the lack of yield.

According to research by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, prolonged disruptions in global oil trade could push US inflation above 4% by year-end, with the possibility of sharper increases in the near term.

Despite starting the year on a strong note, gold has declined around 10% since the Iran conflict began on February 28, highlighting ongoing market volatility.

Investors are now closely watching the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March meeting for further policy direction. Meanwhile, China continues to strengthen its gold reserves, with the People’s Bank of China extending its buying streak to 17 consecutive months, based on data released Tuesday (April 7).

Among other precious metals, spot silver rose 2.4% to $74.70 per ounce, platinum gained 1% to $1,976.95 per ounce, and palladium increased 0.7% to $1,479.75 per ounce.

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Antam Gold Rises

 Antam Gold Price Today (April 7): Up Rp19,000 to Rp2,850,000 per Gram

The price of certified Antam gold bars produced by Logam Mulia of PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) recorded an increase on Tuesday, April 7, 2026.

According to the official Logam Mulia website, the price of 1 gram of Antam gold is now Rp2,850,000, rising by Rp19,000 compared to Monday (April 6, 2026), when it stood at Rp2,831,000 per gram.

Meanwhile, the Antam gold buyback price also climbed to Rp2,569,000 per gram, marking a Rp19,000 increase from the previous level of Rp2,550,000 per gram.

Latest Antam Gold Prices (April 7, 2026)

Prices exclude applicable taxes

• 0.5 gram: Rp1,475,000
• 1 gram: Rp2,850,000
• 5 grams: Rp14,025,000
• 10 grams: Rp27,995,000
• 25 grams: Rp69,862,000
• 50 grams: Rp139,645,000
• 100 grams: Rp279,212,000
• 250 grams: Rp697,765,000
• 500 grams: Rp1,395,320,000
• 1,000 grams: Rp2,790,600,000

This latest increase in Antam gold prices reflects ongoing market movements, making it essential for investors and gold buyers to stay updated with daily price changes.

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