Gold Awaits Fed

Gold Prices Edge Higher as Investors Await Fed Signals and Middle East Developments

Gold prices inched up during early Asian trading on April 29, as investors remained cautious ahead of remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Market participants are closely watching for clues on how the ongoing Iran conflict and stalled peace negotiations could impact the global economy.

As of 08:30 WIB, spot gold rose 0.1% to $4,598.45 per ounce, rebounding slightly after hitting its lowest level since April 2 in the previous session. Meanwhile, U.S. gold futures for June 2026 delivery also gained 0.1% to $4,612.10 per ounce.

Market sentiment continues to be influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Efforts to resolve the Iran conflict have reached a stalemate, with U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly dissatisfied with Tehran’s latest proposal, signaling ongoing uncertainty in the region.

On the monetary policy front, investors widely expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of its two-day meeting later today. Attention is also turning to upcoming decisions from other major central banks this week, including the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Canada.

In Asia, demand signals remain strong. China, the world’s largest gold consumer, imported a net 47.866 metric tons of gold via Hong Kong in March, up from 46.249 tons in February, according to official data released Tuesday.

Looking ahead, energy prices are projected to surge by 24% in 2026, potentially reaching their highest levels since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, according to the World Bank. The outlook depends heavily on whether disruptions caused by Middle East conflicts ease by May.

Oil prices also climbed nearly 3% on Tuesday, driven by persistent concerns over supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. These concerns outweighed market reactions to reports that the United Arab Emirates may exit OPEC and the broader OPEC+ alliance.

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Gold Prices Rise

Gold Prices Edge Up as Traders Watch US-Iran Talks

Gold prices posted a modest gain in early Tuesday trading (April 28, 2026), as market participants closely monitored ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran.

As of 07:46 WIB, gold futures for June 2026 delivery on the Commodity Exchange rose 0.3% to US$4,707.70 per troy ounce, up from US$4,693.79 in the previous session.

The slight uptick in gold prices reflects cautious sentiment among traders, who are evaluating renewed diplomatic efforts aimed at resolving tensions involving Iran. Safe-haven demand remains supported amid lingering geopolitical uncertainty.

According to Bloomberg, US President Donald Trump held a meeting with national security officials to discuss Iran’s latest peace proposal. However, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt emphasized that the United States continues to uphold strict conditions in any agreement to end the conflict.

The statement follows reports that Tehran proposed a temporary deal involving the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting US blockades on vessels traveling to and from Iranian ports.

“An indefinite extension of the ceasefire, while the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted, would prolong market uncertainty,” said Marc Loeffert, a precious metals trader at Heraeus, as cited by Bloomberg.

Looking ahead, analysts suggest that a combination of economic stagnation and rising inflation could further strengthen gold’s long-term appeal as a safe-haven asset.

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Gold Drops Again

Gold Prices Fall Again as Stronger Dollar Offsets China Demand

Gold prices edged lower at the start of the week, pressured by a firmer U.S. dollar and rising oil prices that fueled concerns about persistent inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates, as U.S.–Iran peace talks remain at a standstill.

As of Monday (April 27, 2026) at 09:00 WIB, spot gold slipped 0.3% to $4,694.26 per troy ounce. Last week, gold dropped 2.5%, snapping a four-week winning streak.

Meanwhile, gold futures for June 2026 delivery declined 0.9% to $4,697.60 per troy ounce.

U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Sunday that Iran could initiate negotiations by phone if it seeks to end the two-month conflict, reiterating that Iran “will never possess nuclear weapons.” His remarks came after Tehran insisted that Washington must remove key obstacles to any agreement, including port blockades.

Trump also canceled a planned visit by two U.S. envoys to Pakistan—an intermediary in the Iran conflict—on Saturday (April 25, 2026). The move marked a setback for peace prospects following Iran’s foreign minister’s brief visit to Islamabad, where discussions with Pakistani officials yielded limited progress.

On the macro front, oil prices climbed while the U.S. dollar strengthened slightly and U.S. stock futures declined. The stalled negotiations have prolonged disruptions to Middle East energy exports, unsettling markets ahead of a busy week of central bank meetings.

Republican Senator Thom Tillis said Sunday he would allow Senate consideration of Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh to proceed, after the Justice Department ended its investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday.

In physical markets, gold premiums in India surged to a 2.5-month high due to tighter supply, while buying interest in China increased.

The world’s largest gold-backed ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, reported a 0.2% decline in holdings to 966.30 metric tons on Thursday.

Investors are now closely watching the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, expected Wednesday (April 29, 2026), following its two-day policy meeting.

Elsewhere, spot silver fell 0.3% to $75.48 per troy ounce, platinum slipped 0.3% to $2,005.15, and palladium dropped 0.3% to $1,492.22.

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Gold Bearish Pressure

 

Gold Hits Two-Week Low as Iran Tensions and Inflation Fears Boost USD

Gold prices dropped to a two-week low around the $4,758–$4,757 range during the Asian session, putting the precious metal on track for its first weekly loss in five weeks. Rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, have kept investors cautious. At the same time, renewed inflation concerns are reducing expectations of a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, strengthening the US Dollar and weighing on gold prices.

From a technical perspective, gold maintains a short-term bearish bias as it trades below the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The price is now attempting to break below the ascending channel support near $4,680.47, signaling a potential loss of bullish momentum and opening the door for further downside.

Momentum indicators also reinforce the bearish outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 35.72, approaching oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory below the zero line at around -4.92. These signals suggest continued selling pressure rather than an imminent reversal.

If the bearish trend persists, XAU/USD could face deeper declines. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen near the former channel support at $4,680.47, followed by stronger resistance at the 200-period EMA around $4,778.44. A more significant barrier lies near the upper boundary of the ascending channel at approximately $4,901.82. Only a sustained move above these levels would ease the current bearish sentiment.

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Geopolitical tensions continue to escalate as the US naval blockade of Iranian ports intensifies. Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, has labeled the blockade as an act of war, while senior negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated that any ceasefire would be meaningless if maritime restrictions remain in place. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has ordered the Navy to take decisive action against vessels laying mines in critical shipping routes. These developments diminish hopes for de-escalation and reinforce the US Dollar’s strength as a global reserve currency, adding pressure on gold.

At the same time, ongoing disruptions to energy supply routes are supporting elevated crude oil prices. This raises concerns about a potential surge in global inflation, which could push major central banks—including the Federal Reserve—toward a more hawkish policy stance. Current market expectations suggest only one 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in 2026. This outlook is boosting US Treasury yields and the US Dollar, further reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.

Looking ahead, the US economic calendar features the revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. However, market focus remains on geopolitical developments, which are likely to drive volatility and create trading opportunities in gold. Despite this, the overall fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for XAU/USD remains to the downside, with any short-term rallies likely to be viewed as selling opportunities.

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Gold Tensions Rise

 

Gold Prices Rebound from Weekly Lows as US–Iran Tensions Drive Market Sentiment

Global gold prices rebounded on Wednesday (April 23, 2026) after falling to their lowest level in over a week during the previous session. The recovery was largely driven by bargain hunting, as investors took advantage of lower prices, while growing geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran renewed safe-haven demand.

In the latest trading session, spot gold rose by 0.5% to reach $4,735.65 per ounce at 13:40 local time, بعدما earlier gaining as much as 1% at the start of the session. Meanwhile, U.S. gold futures for June delivery closed 0.7% higher at $4,753.00 per ounce.

Market analysts suggest that the rebound was primarily fueled by technical factors following the sharp decline seen on Tuesday. According to Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals, buying activity emerged after recent losses, reflecting strong bargain hunting across precious metals, including gold and silver.

Geopolitical risks remain a key driver of market sentiment. Reports indicate that Iran has seized two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping route and one of the most sensitive geopolitical hotspots in the Middle East.

At the same time, U.S. President Donald Trump has yet to set a clear deadline regarding a potential ceasefire with Iran, despite ongoing diplomatic pressure. So far, there are no signs of renewed peace negotiations between the two nations.

Tensions in the region have further escalated following renewed instability in the Israel–Lebanon ceasefire, after an Israeli drone strike reportedly killed at least three people in Lebanon.

Despite these developments, some analysts believe the market remains cautiously optimistic that tensions in the Strait of Hormuz could ease. Bart Melek, Head of Global Commodity Strategy at TD Securities, noted that gold prices received modest support from hopes of de-escalation, although the situation remains fragile and uncertain.

From a broader perspective, gold prices have declined by approximately 11% since the escalation of the US–Israel–Iran conflict in late February. Rising oil prices have fueled inflation concerns, while elevated interest rates continue to weigh on gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset.

Investors are also closely watching the direction of U.S. monetary policy. Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh emphasized that he has made no commitments to President Trump regarding interest rate cuts, reaffirming the central bank’s independence amid the Senate confirmation process.

Other precious metals also posted gains. Spot silver climbed 1.4% to $77.80 per ounce, platinum surged 2.1% to $2,079.80, and palladium advanced 1.3% to $1,553.43 per ounce.

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Gold Rebound Risks

 

Gold Price Rebounds but Downside Risks Persist Amid US-Iran Tensions

Gold prices are attempting a modest recovery, trading near $4,750 during Wednesday’s Asian session after dropping more than 2% on Tuesday. Market attention remains focused on the evolving US-Iran geopolitical situation, especially in the absence of major US economic data releases later in the day.

On the daily chart, XAU/USD is trading at $4,757.33, maintaining a constructive short-term bullish bias. Prices are holding above the 21-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), located around $4,684 and $4,732 respectively. The metal is also hovering slightly above the previous descending trendline resistance breakout zone near $4,750. Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits just below the 50 level, signaling neutral but stable momentum.

On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at the upper boundary of a falling wedge pattern near $4,790. A daily close above this level would be crucial to confirm a bullish breakout from the formation. The next key resistance stands at the 50-day SMA around $4,883, where sustained upward movement could trigger a stronger recovery. On the downside, initial support is located near the former trendline resistance-turned-support around $4,750, followed by the 100-day SMA at $4,732 and the 21-day SMA near $4,684. A break below this cluster of support levels could expose deeper demand near the 200-day SMA around $4,237.

Gold Price Outlook Influenced by Geopolitical Developments

On Wednesday morning, gold prices recovered part of their previous sharp losses as sellers retreated from levels above $4,800. The recent uptick in the precious metal is largely driven by a temporary decline in safe-haven demand for the US Dollar (USD), as markets reacted positively to US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a unilateral extension of the US-Iran ceasefire.

However, the sustainability of gold’s rebound remains uncertain. US-Iran peace negotiations have stalled, with Trump reportedly awaiting a “comprehensive proposal” from Tehran amid the ongoing blockade of Iranian ports.

Iran’s military has warned of strong retaliatory actions against predefined targets in response to repeated threats from the US President, stating that they will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz while the naval blockade remains in place.

According to a recent report by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), the United States has also restricted dollar shipments to Iraq in an effort to pressure Iran-backed militias.

This ongoing Middle East geopolitical tension is likely to continue limiting downside pressure on the US Dollar.

Additionally, stronger-than-expected US Retail Sales data has revived expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike this year, providing further support to the USD and capping gold’s upside potential.

“Retail Sales surged 1.7% last month, the largest increase since March 2025, following an upwardly revised 0.7% gain in February,” reported Reuters, citing data from the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau.

Meanwhile, the confirmation hearing of Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh signaled to markets that he may adopt a less dovish stance than previously expected, should his nomination be approved.

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